Thurtson & Churchill First Round Playoff Match-Ups

I wish I could be at two places at the same time this weekend.  Churchill will have their hands full at #10 Jefferson against a team that averages over 10 yards per carry and #4 Thurston will try and get their O back on track while hosting #11 The Dalles-Wahtonka.

Churchill @ Jefferson

Jefferson
The Dems leading rusher, Ian Perkins, averages 10.2 yards per carry and 147 yards per game.  QB Eli Aluesi averages 10.8 yards per carry and 41 yards per game.  Before you say, "But the PIL stinks.", know that Perkins gains 146 yards against #2 West Albany, 148 yards against #3 Sherwood and 149 against Marshfield.  

The Dem passing game is a bit of a problem for Jefferson.  They did fine in league, but in their murderous pre-league schedule, which included Grant and Crater besides the teams mentioned earlier, the Dems were way upside down in their TD to Int ratio, and completed less than 40% of their non league passes.

Defensively, the Dems best outing in the non league schedule was giving up just 22 to West Albany.  Marshfield put 25 on Jefferson, and Crater laid on 28 points.  Sherwood, the most explosive 5A team I've seen this year, scored 40 against Jeff. 

Churchill
Churchill should have the defensive speed to keep the Dems within reach.  It'll be up to junior QB Spencer Savelich and his great stable of receivers to put a lot of points on the board.   WR's Sam Graham, Brandon Determan, Josh Moreland, Daniel Wyers and TE Brynnan Hyland all have to shine if the Lancers are to outscore the Dems.

Of course all of these guys will stay of the field  on the D side of the ball along with LB's Kyle Rehberger and Kalen Dennis.  The outcome of this game could come down to who is in better shape.

Outcome
Jefferson's field is usually very sloppy at this time of year, which would give Jefferson an advantage because of their strong running game.  I saw two close Sheldon-Jefferson playoff games at Jefferson and the Jeff backs somehow knew where the dry spots were.  (The two teams split the games)

Mud won't be a bad thing for the Lancers, though.   Passing games can be even better if receivers know when to stop and when to stop and go.  DB's just go flying by.  Also, RB's built low to the ground like 5' 10", 170 pound Nick Bell tend to do well in muddy conditions because counter steps get the defense going in one direction.   Bell (and Aaron Ingram) can then go against the grain while the defenders are sliding back on unsure footing to try and make the tackle while the RB is running a hard, straight line and shedding stretched out arms. 

I have to give Jefferson the nod.  I think the explosiveness of their RB and QB and home field advantage tip the odds in their favor.  But there are many scenarios that could lead to a Lancer victory.  One is that Jefferson frequently kills themselves with penalties and turnovers.  If Jeff starts out stumbling a little and Churchill can get a few early scores, Jefferson might have to go to the air, and the Dem's passing game just hasn't held up against good D's like Churchill's.

By the way, one of the best sportsmanship gestures I've ever seen was at the 2000 Sheldon at Jefferson game.  The Sheldon boosters took a bus to Jefferson on a cold, wet, windy night.  When we got off of the bus we were escorted to a special table and everyone of us was offered free hot chocolate.

Oh, and I want to know if the Winnebago with the constantly screaming fans on the roof is still parked behind the visitors bench (and visiting parents seats).  I mean non-stop, pro-Jefferson hooting and screaming at the top of their voices the entire game.  At first it was obnoxious, but it eventually got everyone smiling because you had to give a hand to a bunch of boosters who could root that hard, that long.

The Dalles-Wahtonka at Thurston

When I was in Coos Bay for the Marshfield-Thurston game, I heard that Andrew Woody might be back for the playoffs.  That would be huge for the Colts.  They certainly struggled on O in their 24-21 win over the Pirates, who were without one of their DB's.  For the second week in a row Thurston gained more yards on the ground than passing. The Colts had 168 rushing yards compared to 124  in the air against Marshfield.  That's not a good sign for the playoffs.

The Dalles-Wahtonka Eagles

Both IMC's first round teams won their playoff game, giving the league four teams left in the playoffs.  The Eagles beat the other IMC team playing last week, Hermiston, 33-29.  Let's see.... if the Eagles beat Hermiston by four, and Hermiston beat Marshfield by 21... and Marshfield lost by only three to Thurston, I think we have a game Friday night.

The Dalles-Wahtonka is primarily a running team.  They've rushed for over 2,500 yards and passed for 1,002.  The Eagle feature back is 5'8", 180 pound Ray Niko.  He's good for 131 yards per game and a lot of bruised bodies.  The QB, Duncan Wilcox,  runs the all about half as often as Niko.  Wilcox averages 36 yards per game running and throws for 97 yards on average.  His completion rate is decent at 53%, and has 15 TD's versus 7 Ints.  

In last weeks playoff game against Corvallis, Niko ran for 153 yards on 21 carries, but Wilcox struggled in the passing game, going just 3 for 10.

The Eagles D is solid.  The most anyone scored on them was 33, by Bend,  the IMC #1 seed.  The Dalles-Wahtonka has held 7 of 10 teams to two touchdowns or less.

Thurston

I watched the Colts last two games against Churchill and Marshfield.  In the 41-7 win over Churchill, the Colts looked crisp on offense.  They called their plays quickly and played at a tremendous pace.  In Coos Bay, the Colts seemed to be testing some different combinations at the receiver positions and looked a little confused coming to the line of scrimmage.  Their tempo did not seem as rapid as in the Churchill game.  Hopefully, they will get their tempo and precision back for the playoff game.  

Hendrickson will have to be on the mark, as he usually is.  Jordan Loos will need another big game at receiver.  To do that, several other receivers will need to step up to take the pressure off of Loos.  It would be great to see RB Michael Livingston have a breakout game.  And I hope to see Bulldozer Akins for few more runs against the Eagles.

Outcome

Thurston has to regain the offensive 'pop' that they had when Woody was playing.  The two week focus on this game gives coach Starck the opportunity to tinker with his O.  I'm predicting a Colt victory.  I'll be happy if it's by a little or a lot.  But they better not let the Eagle running machine get a lead and get on a roll.  

I'll be there, and I think it will be fun to compare the 5' 9",  180 pound Niko to 6'2" 265 pound Akins as running backs.   It'll also be fun to contrast the two as a 5'9" RB and a 265 pound DL.

PS I went to the Sheldon-Tigard game last week.  Sheldon's O is ridiculous.  And they were blindingly quick on special teams, with two special team scores.  However, the playoff bracket gods were not kind to Sheldon.  Starting this week, they play Aloha from the Metro league.  Aloha is primarily a running team, an Irish defensive weakness.  Their bracket from here on out is almost all running teams. Should the Irish make it through this week they most likely move on to face nemesis Lake Oswego, then possibly Canby, and then undoubtedly Jesuit in the finals.  If you are an oddsmaker, you wouldn't give Sheldon much of a chance to go 5-0 in the playoffs against running teams.  But that is what they will have to do.  They are already 1-0.  (Note, Tigard, last week's victim,  finished the season 3-7)

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Millers (1-3, 2-7) @ Wolverines (1-3, 2-7)

Springfield and Willamette were eliminated from their faint hopes of a playoff spot last week.  So Friday night will be the last night of football for most seniors.  With no playoff pressure, players can play just for the fun of the game.  It'll be many of the senior's last blocks, passes, catches, runs and tackles.

For football fans, this will be an exciting game to watch.  Both teams are quick, hit hard on D, and both teams air it out on O.  Some of my favorite photos this year are of the Willamette D closing in on ball carriers like a pack of lean, vicious Wolverines.  How fitting.  The Millers are much the same way, I just didn't take my camera both Miller games I went to, or I would have a lot of similar photos of Millers closing in.

Springfield
Springfield has seen junior Qb Levi Green blossom this year.  He's completing 57% of his passes in league and averaging 157 YPGame.  Expect those numbers to improve next year with junior Jake Becker returning at receiver.  Becker leads the team in catches and yardage in league games.  Willamette will have to stop Becker and four other solid senior receivers: Nick Dillingham, Ellis McNaulty, Oliver Johnson, and Devonte Smith.  

Senior running back Alex Camarena will try to break out after spending considerable time off the field during league play due to an injury.  He played last week, but most of the heavy running load went to junior Thomas Spikes.  

Springfield has several juniors on their O line.  It would be great for the Millers if their line and juniors QB Green, WR Becker and RB Spikes could set up the seniors for a good offensive night and a season ending victory.

Willamette
Willamette senior Jake Hughes returned to the QB position last week.  Dylan Geyer, who had been handling the QB chores while Hughes was out, caught a 45 yard TD pass.  Nice reward for the QB work he put in.  Rafael Hidalgo ran for his second straight 100+ yard game after being sidelined with an injury.  Junior RB Skyler Moore has been rambling for over 7 YPCarry during league.  I'm sure Coach Fritz would have liked to have had this trio on the field at the same time all year.

I've seen every team in the league at least twice and my vote for the most exciting O player of the year is receiver Taylor Woodke.  His circus catches are 'Taylor Made' according to the Wolverine announcer.  I think that's called 'hyperbole', but many of his catches are certainly highlight material.  Woodke leads the league in catches and yardage by a mile.  This is surprising as every opponent knows where the ball is going on third down.  This guy knows how to find an open spot, and when he doesn't find an open spot, he outjumps and outfights his opponent. Wolverine opponents can't breathe a sigh of relief because Woodke will graduate.  A pair of 6' 1" juniors, Cameron Koehler and Brandon Haines, will return.  Springfield wont' have to wait til next year to worry about these two, they just have to wait til Friday.

On the D side of the ball, LB Danny Granillo leadsthe team in tackles with 57 so far.  He's a 6/1", 210 pounder - and just a junior! Take time out from following the ball a few plays and watch Granillo, #58, and the other Willamette LB's.  

Prediction
Willamette at full strength is tough to beat.  With Hidalgo and Hughes healthy, the Wolverines get the nod.  Even if Hughes gets sidelined, Geyer can step in and do the job.  The Wolverines Achilles heel(s) have been turnovers and penalties.  If the Wolverines go back to turning the ball over, the Millers could walk away with the win. 

Sit back and  enjoy this game.  These teams are fast and hit hard.  they both can air it out.  If it isn't pouring, expect some fireworks. 

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Bibbee vs Kaille Wong - Rushing Numbers

Mike Bibbee was a toddler when future NFL player, Kailee Wong, set the MWL regular season rushing record of 1,542 yards in 9 regular season games during 1993. Wong led the Highlanders to the playoffs while averaging 171 yards a game for the regular season. MWL teams played 8 league games that year, during which Wong rambled for 161.4 yards per game.

Wong ran off to Stanford for a great college career (on D) before heading off to Minnesota to intercept a Brett Farve pass and take it back All The Way. Rather than going out of state, Bibbee is heading to OSU to play linebacker. Before he says ‘adieu’, he has one last shot Friday night of catching Wong. I’m not sure if breaking Wong’s record would be a new MWL high as the Register-Guard hasn’t been tracking season stats the last few years during the six team league format. Nevertheless, breaking Wong’s numbers would be an outstanding accomplishment. And who wouldn’t want to be able to say, ” I did better than Kailee Wong in football.”

If I’m tracking the numbers correctly, Bibbee needs 139 yards against Churchill to pass Wong. That’s doable considering Bibbee is averaging 144.8 yards in league games. The game will be on artificial turf, so even a bit of rain shouldn’t make too much difference.

The league season hasn’t gone the way the Highlanders hoped. But I have to think it would be cool for Bibbee’s teammates if they could push him over the top and then watch as Bibbee hopefully goes on to have a solid career at Beaverville. (I’m a Duck) Then his teammates can come back to reunions and say, “You would have been nothing if I didn’t open all of those holes for ya.”

For those precious reunion conversations to occur, Bibbee will have to complete two tasks. One, gain 139 yards Friday. And two, work incredibly hard academically and athletically the next four or five years at OSU.

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Streak Week. Keep or Beat the Streaks.

Churchill 3-0 @ Thurston 3-0
It doesn't get any better than this. Thurston's high flying Colts have a 10 game league win streak going, but got hammered by 6A South Eugene, 49-14, earlier this season. Churchill has a 7 game win streak this year, but suffered a 48-6 loss to 6A Sheldon in the first game of the season. That gives both teams sweeps of non league 5A competition and three game sweeps of MWL opponents. A Churchill win clinches a number one playoff seed, as they would own wins over Marshfield and Thurston. A Thurston win sets up a regular season finale for the Colts in Coos Bay with a possible outcome of a three way tie for first.

So who wins? Everyone outside of Bailey Hill thinks it will be a Colt stampede. But hold on. None of Thurston's wins have come against a team with a winning record. And their lopsided wins over Willamette and Springfield came when the other team's primary running back was knocked out early. (Watch out Lancer backs)

Thurston is averaging 508 yards per game in league. Yikes! 290 yards in the air, mostly on the arm of Chance Hendrickson. Hendrickson is completing 68% of his passes, has 11 TD passes versus 3 ints, and is averaging 283 yards per game. Thurston is averaging 218 on the ground, mostly from junior Tyler Johnson (102 YPG) and senior Mike Livingston (70). The receiving corp is led by junior Jordan Demoss and seniors Jordan Loos and Livingston. (Andrew Woody is out for the season with a broken hand suffered before the third league game against North Eugene) All told, 12 different Colts have caught the ball in their three league games.

Thurston's D is led by last year's MWL Defensive Player of the Year, linebacker Kyle Wright, and junior lineman Kraig Akins. Definitely take your eyes of the ball for a few plays and watch these two on D. Team leaders in tackles include senior DB's Greg Nichols & Kody Powell and junior DB's Tanner Rhoades & Kristian Smith.

Churchill has put together it's usual high-octane offense. That's no surprise, but of note is that junior QB Spencer Savelich threw just four passes a game in pre league games, then was suddenly thrown into the position at Marshfield. Savelich responded with a 22 for 42 night and a come from behind win. Junior Brandon Determan had a great pre league as a receiver. Determan's preleague performance, along with the expected good stats from Sam Graham, gave hope to the Lancers that they would do well in league. I thought the Lancer's weren't spreading the ball around enough to get by the quick D's of Springfield and Willamette, but seniors Daniel Weyers and Josh Moreland have been in the receiving mix a lot more since league started. The Lancer's haven't found a feature back and have been been using junior Nick Bell and sophomore Aaron Ingram to pound out 4 yards a carry. Their sneaker back is Sam Graham, who doesn't get many touches because he's primarily a receiver, but when he does get called upon to run, he's gone.

On the D side of the ball, senior LB Kalen Dennis leads the Lancers in tackles. Right behind Dennis are LB Josh Moreland, DE Brynnan Hyland and DB Sam Graham.

I'm hoping for a great game. I've got to go with Thurston on The Farm. The Colts are the only team in the league that more than matches up with the Lancer's in speed and strength. I don't think the gap is huge, but the Colts are deep and just don't let up. Both teams have had several games where they are slow out of the chute. If either team gets out too late, the other will need to stomp on them early, as both teams have shown they love to explode in the second half.