I wish I could be at two places at the same time this weekend. Churchill will have their hands full at #10 Jefferson against a team that averages over 10 yards per carry and #4 Thurston will try and get their O back on track while hosting #11 The Dalles-Wahtonka.
Churchill @ Jefferson
Jefferson
The Dems leading rusher, Ian Perkins, averages 10.2 yards per carry and 147 yards per game. QB Eli Aluesi averages 10.8 yards per carry and 41 yards per game. Before you say, "But the PIL stinks.", know that Perkins gains 146 yards against #2 West Albany, 148 yards against #3 Sherwood and 149 against Marshfield.
The Dem passing game is a bit of a problem for Jefferson. They did fine in league, but in their murderous pre-league schedule, which included Grant and Crater besides the teams mentioned earlier, the Dems were way upside down in their TD to Int ratio, and completed less than 40% of their non league passes.
Defensively, the Dems best outing in the non league schedule was giving up just 22 to West Albany. Marshfield put 25 on Jefferson, and Crater laid on 28 points. Sherwood, the most explosive 5A team I've seen this year, scored 40 against Jeff.
Churchill
Churchill should have the defensive speed to keep the Dems within reach. It'll be up to junior QB Spencer Savelich and his great stable of receivers to put a lot of points on the board. WR's Sam Graham, Brandon Determan, Josh Moreland, Daniel Wyers and TE Brynnan Hyland all have to shine if the Lancers are to outscore the Dems.
Of course all of these guys will stay of the field on the D side of the ball along with LB's Kyle Rehberger and Kalen Dennis. The outcome of this game could come down to who is in better shape.
Outcome
Jefferson's field is usually very sloppy at this time of year, which would give Jefferson an advantage because of their strong running game. I saw two close Sheldon-Jefferson playoff games at Jefferson and the Jeff backs somehow knew where the dry spots were. (The two teams split the games)
Mud won't be a bad thing for the Lancers, though. Passing games can be even better if receivers know when to stop and when to stop and go. DB's just go flying by. Also, RB's built low to the ground like 5' 10", 170 pound Nick Bell tend to do well in muddy conditions because counter steps get the defense going in one direction. Bell (and Aaron Ingram) can then go against the grain while the defenders are sliding back on unsure footing to try and make the tackle while the RB is running a hard, straight line and shedding stretched out arms.
I have to give Jefferson the nod. I think the explosiveness of their RB and QB and home field advantage tip the odds in their favor. But there are many scenarios that could lead to a Lancer victory. One is that Jefferson frequently kills themselves with penalties and turnovers. If Jeff starts out stumbling a little and Churchill can get a few early scores, Jefferson might have to go to the air, and the Dem's passing game just hasn't held up against good D's like Churchill's.
By the way, one of the best sportsmanship gestures I've ever seen was at the 2000 Sheldon at Jefferson game. The Sheldon boosters took a bus to Jefferson on a cold, wet, windy night. When we got off of the bus we were escorted to a special table and everyone of us was offered free hot chocolate.
Oh, and I want to know if the Winnebago with the constantly screaming fans on the roof is still parked behind the visitors bench (and visiting parents seats). I mean non-stop, pro-Jefferson hooting and screaming at the top of their voices the entire game. At first it was obnoxious, but it eventually got everyone smiling because you had to give a hand to a bunch of boosters who could root that hard, that long.
The Dalles-Wahtonka at Thurston
When I was in Coos Bay for the Marshfield-Thurston game, I heard that Andrew Woody might be back for the playoffs. That would be huge for the Colts. They certainly struggled on O in their 24-21 win over the Pirates, who were without one of their DB's. For the second week in a row Thurston gained more yards on the ground than passing. The Colts had 168 rushing yards compared to 124 in the air against Marshfield. That's not a good sign for the playoffs.
The Dalles-Wahtonka Eagles
Both IMC's first round teams won their playoff game, giving the league four teams left in the playoffs. The Eagles beat the other IMC team playing last week, Hermiston, 33-29. Let's see.... if the Eagles beat Hermiston by four, and Hermiston beat Marshfield by 21... and Marshfield lost by only three to Thurston, I think we have a game Friday night.
The Dalles-Wahtonka is primarily a running team. They've rushed for over 2,500 yards and passed for 1,002. The Eagle feature back is 5'8", 180 pound Ray Niko. He's good for 131 yards per game and a lot of bruised bodies. The QB, Duncan Wilcox, runs the all about half as often as Niko. Wilcox averages 36 yards per game running and throws for 97 yards on average. His completion rate is decent at 53%, and has 15 TD's versus 7 Ints.
In last weeks playoff game against Corvallis, Niko ran for 153 yards on 21 carries, but Wilcox struggled in the passing game, going just 3 for 10.
The Eagles D is solid. The most anyone scored on them was 33, by Bend, the IMC #1 seed. The Dalles-Wahtonka has held 7 of 10 teams to two touchdowns or less.
Thurston
I watched the Colts last two games against Churchill and Marshfield. In the 41-7 win over Churchill, the Colts looked crisp on offense. They called their plays quickly and played at a tremendous pace. In Coos Bay, the Colts seemed to be testing some different combinations at the receiver positions and looked a little confused coming to the line of scrimmage. Their tempo did not seem as rapid as in the Churchill game. Hopefully, they will get their tempo and precision back for the playoff game.
Hendrickson will have to be on the mark, as he usually is. Jordan Loos will need another big game at receiver. To do that, several other receivers will need to step up to take the pressure off of Loos. It would be great to see RB Michael Livingston have a breakout game. And I hope to see Bulldozer Akins for few more runs against the Eagles.
Outcome
Thurston has to regain the offensive 'pop' that they had when Woody was playing. The two week focus on this game gives coach Starck the opportunity to tinker with his O. I'm predicting a Colt victory. I'll be happy if it's by a little or a lot. But they better not let the Eagle running machine get a lead and get on a roll.
I'll be there, and I think it will be fun to compare the 5' 9", 180 pound Niko to 6'2" 265 pound Akins as running backs. It'll also be fun to contrast the two as a 5'9" RB and a 265 pound DL.
PS I went to the Sheldon-Tigard game last week. Sheldon's O is ridiculous. And they were blindingly quick on special teams, with two special team scores. However, the playoff bracket gods were not kind to Sheldon. Starting this week, they play Aloha from the Metro league. Aloha is primarily a running team, an Irish defensive weakness. Their bracket from here on out is almost all running teams. Should the Irish make it through this week they most likely move on to face nemesis Lake Oswego, then possibly Canby, and then undoubtedly Jesuit in the finals. If you are an oddsmaker, you wouldn't give Sheldon much of a chance to go 5-0 in the playoffs against running teams. But that is what they will have to do. They are already 1-0. (Note, Tigard, last week's victim, finished the season 3-7)
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