Mid-Willamette vs MWL 8, RPI & All Stars

Second Round Play-In Games

Five of the seven MWL 8 play-in games are against Mid-Willamette teams. The RPI system thinks the Mid-Willamette league is the SEC of Oregon.

Here's a breakdown of how the MWL compares:

League Finish    Mid Will RPI   MWL8 RPI
          1                     603               627       +24 
          2                     602               568        -34
          3                     572               517        -55
          4                     547               496        -51
          5                     504               445        -59
          6                     437               437          0
          7                     397               363        -34
          8                     391               338        -53

If the Mid-Willamette League sweeps us, four of the five winner's RPI's are likely to go down.  That would serve them right.

Interesting Play-In Notes:

• The only Mid-Willamette team that isn't playing a MWL 8 team is West Albany (5-3, 547 RPI) which travels to Bend (4-4, 552).
• The only MWL 6 team not to play a Mid Willamette team  is Marist, who plays MWL 8 member Eagle Point.  This boo-boo in scheduling has given speculation to:
•  The MWL 8 could become an official league next year.  That would be an appropriate adjustment to the new everyone in playoff system.  Eagle Point, third in the MWL 8, ahead of five other MWL 8 teams, had to play a play in game.  Three teams that finished below them in the MWL 8 had byes.  Making the MWL 8 an official football league would also eliminate a second round game between to MWL 8 teams.

The Match Ups

• Marist vs Eagle Point at Willamette High.  Most people will think the outcome will be the same as when these two teams met four weeks ago.  I think the Eagle's hope lies in finding a way for the Eagle line to control some part of the Marist D line.  This is a tall order as they will be facing league MVP Matthew Devereux and league defensive MVP Logan Mayes.  If Eagle Point can open some lanes for the backs to punch out a few yards, the Eagles can blend their running game with a crisp passing game.  Defensively, Eagle Point won't stop Marist, but Marist has had a few games where they lost the ball several times.
• South Albany (2-7, 391 RPI) at Ashland (6-2, 568).  I watched South Albany dispatch Willamette last week at Willamette.  The Rebels running back Adam Schamp, #22, was too quick and way too fast for Willamette.  Ashland's D is quick enough to slow down Schamp and Ashland's Scarmanich & Volz will control the ball effectively and receivers Lime, Dodds and Heater will find the soft spots.
• Silverton (4-4, 504 RPI) at Churchill (4-3, 496).  Note that Silverton beat Springfield 35-28 in the season opener.  Silverton has a 60:40 rush to pass ratio.  They pound the ball at a little over 56 yards a carry.  They have a 5'9" workhorse in #5, Troy Sinn.  Sinn is the leading rusher, but at just 4.1 YPC.  Joe Bochsler, #13, who doesn't get many carries, but averages 8.5 YPC,  is the second leading rusher on the team.  Quarterback Nic Reinhard has solid 94 qb rating.  He's thrown 12 td passes versus just 3 interceptions.    Silverton is much improved from their first game of the season against Springfield.  Churchill will have their hands full.  I don't think you'll see turnovers by Silverton.  Churchill will have to play sharp.  Turn over the ball and the Foxes will just pound it on the ground and control the clock and game. The Lancers filled 22 positions in the all league voting.  They will all have to play like all leaguers to win this one.
• Lebanon (6-2, 572 RPI) at Springfield (3-5, 445).  This is strictly the Air Force versus Army.  Lebanon runs the ball 83% of the time!  They average 6.6 YPC.  Yikes!  Springfield passes the ball 51% of the time.  I say, let 'er rip.  Hopefully, Lebanon won't be able to stop Levi Green's passing game.  After all, Lebanon doesn't see much passing in their league.  In Lebanon's favor is that Springfield didn't have any defensive players make all league lineman.  Could be a high scoring game.
• Marshfield (3-5, 437 RPI) at Crescent Valley (6-2, 602).  Crescent Valley runs the ball 70% of the time. Marshfield is about the same.  The Raiders M.O. is to control the ball, slowly march down the field for a TD, then stuff the opponent.  They don't go wild on offense, but they have scored at least 27 points in their last six games.   Their defense has held their opponents to two or fewer TD's in the last five games.  Marshfield's offense has gone wild twice this year, and they are due.  The Pirates will see some smash-mouth football out or Crescent Valley, but if the Pirates explode, they might surprise the Raiders who don't usually strike quickly.
• North Eugene (1-8, 363 RPI) at Corvallis (6-2, 603).  A true David versus Goliath game.  Corvallis is a passing team according to Mid-Willamette standards, passing 35% of the time. Corvallis has really weird stats.  The qb is very efficient in the td to int area, but only averages 11.8 yards per completion.  They run the ball a lot, but only average 3.9 yards per carry due to quarterback sacks.  The Highlanders are rightly a long shot.  If the Highlanders can keep Corvallis from ripping off huge yards in their running game, they might keep themselves in the game and have a chance at the end.

League All Stars

The MVP discussions couldn't have taken too long.  My vision is that the other coaches pulled a Saturday Night Live skit and bowed down and said, "We are not worthy."  And then they let Marist coach Frank Geske squirm as he had to choose among Devereux, Mayes and Silver for the MVP spots.  By the way the last lineman to win league MVP was, of course, a Pirate.  Marshfield's Mike Beslisle pulled off the trick in 1997.  Since then it's been five QB's, five RB's and two receivers.   Link to MVP's since 1980

All in all, I thought the selections were very good.  There were very few that made me scratch my head. I would have hoped a few more Highlanders would have made the team.  Here's a breakdown:

Team                1st   2nd   HM  Total
Marist                10     8       5       23
Ashland               4     6       9       19
Eagle Point          4     3       8       15      
Churchill              4     8        9      21
Springfield           3     1        6       10
Marshfield            1     3        5         9
Willamette           1     1        4         6
North Eugene      0     0        1         1

I'll be inputting the all league players on each teams section over the next few days.  Let me know if I omit anyone or get some info/spelling wrong.

Thurtson & Churchill First Round Playoff Match-Ups

I wish I could be at two places at the same time this weekend.  Churchill will have their hands full at #10 Jefferson against a team that averages over 10 yards per carry and #4 Thurston will try and get their O back on track while hosting #11 The Dalles-Wahtonka.

Churchill @ Jefferson

Jefferson
The Dems leading rusher, Ian Perkins, averages 10.2 yards per carry and 147 yards per game.  QB Eli Aluesi averages 10.8 yards per carry and 41 yards per game.  Before you say, "But the PIL stinks.", know that Perkins gains 146 yards against #2 West Albany, 148 yards against #3 Sherwood and 149 against Marshfield.  

The Dem passing game is a bit of a problem for Jefferson.  They did fine in league, but in their murderous pre-league schedule, which included Grant and Crater besides the teams mentioned earlier, the Dems were way upside down in their TD to Int ratio, and completed less than 40% of their non league passes.

Defensively, the Dems best outing in the non league schedule was giving up just 22 to West Albany.  Marshfield put 25 on Jefferson, and Crater laid on 28 points.  Sherwood, the most explosive 5A team I've seen this year, scored 40 against Jeff. 

Churchill
Churchill should have the defensive speed to keep the Dems within reach.  It'll be up to junior QB Spencer Savelich and his great stable of receivers to put a lot of points on the board.   WR's Sam Graham, Brandon Determan, Josh Moreland, Daniel Wyers and TE Brynnan Hyland all have to shine if the Lancers are to outscore the Dems.

Of course all of these guys will stay of the field  on the D side of the ball along with LB's Kyle Rehberger and Kalen Dennis.  The outcome of this game could come down to who is in better shape.

Outcome
Jefferson's field is usually very sloppy at this time of year, which would give Jefferson an advantage because of their strong running game.  I saw two close Sheldon-Jefferson playoff games at Jefferson and the Jeff backs somehow knew where the dry spots were.  (The two teams split the games)

Mud won't be a bad thing for the Lancers, though.   Passing games can be even better if receivers know when to stop and when to stop and go.  DB's just go flying by.  Also, RB's built low to the ground like 5' 10", 170 pound Nick Bell tend to do well in muddy conditions because counter steps get the defense going in one direction.   Bell (and Aaron Ingram) can then go against the grain while the defenders are sliding back on unsure footing to try and make the tackle while the RB is running a hard, straight line and shedding stretched out arms. 

I have to give Jefferson the nod.  I think the explosiveness of their RB and QB and home field advantage tip the odds in their favor.  But there are many scenarios that could lead to a Lancer victory.  One is that Jefferson frequently kills themselves with penalties and turnovers.  If Jeff starts out stumbling a little and Churchill can get a few early scores, Jefferson might have to go to the air, and the Dem's passing game just hasn't held up against good D's like Churchill's.

By the way, one of the best sportsmanship gestures I've ever seen was at the 2000 Sheldon at Jefferson game.  The Sheldon boosters took a bus to Jefferson on a cold, wet, windy night.  When we got off of the bus we were escorted to a special table and everyone of us was offered free hot chocolate.

Oh, and I want to know if the Winnebago with the constantly screaming fans on the roof is still parked behind the visitors bench (and visiting parents seats).  I mean non-stop, pro-Jefferson hooting and screaming at the top of their voices the entire game.  At first it was obnoxious, but it eventually got everyone smiling because you had to give a hand to a bunch of boosters who could root that hard, that long.

The Dalles-Wahtonka at Thurston

When I was in Coos Bay for the Marshfield-Thurston game, I heard that Andrew Woody might be back for the playoffs.  That would be huge for the Colts.  They certainly struggled on O in their 24-21 win over the Pirates, who were without one of their DB's.  For the second week in a row Thurston gained more yards on the ground than passing. The Colts had 168 rushing yards compared to 124  in the air against Marshfield.  That's not a good sign for the playoffs.

The Dalles-Wahtonka Eagles

Both IMC's first round teams won their playoff game, giving the league four teams left in the playoffs.  The Eagles beat the other IMC team playing last week, Hermiston, 33-29.  Let's see.... if the Eagles beat Hermiston by four, and Hermiston beat Marshfield by 21... and Marshfield lost by only three to Thurston, I think we have a game Friday night.

The Dalles-Wahtonka is primarily a running team.  They've rushed for over 2,500 yards and passed for 1,002.  The Eagle feature back is 5'8", 180 pound Ray Niko.  He's good for 131 yards per game and a lot of bruised bodies.  The QB, Duncan Wilcox,  runs the all about half as often as Niko.  Wilcox averages 36 yards per game running and throws for 97 yards on average.  His completion rate is decent at 53%, and has 15 TD's versus 7 Ints.  

In last weeks playoff game against Corvallis, Niko ran for 153 yards on 21 carries, but Wilcox struggled in the passing game, going just 3 for 10.

The Eagles D is solid.  The most anyone scored on them was 33, by Bend,  the IMC #1 seed.  The Dalles-Wahtonka has held 7 of 10 teams to two touchdowns or less.

Thurston

I watched the Colts last two games against Churchill and Marshfield.  In the 41-7 win over Churchill, the Colts looked crisp on offense.  They called their plays quickly and played at a tremendous pace.  In Coos Bay, the Colts seemed to be testing some different combinations at the receiver positions and looked a little confused coming to the line of scrimmage.  Their tempo did not seem as rapid as in the Churchill game.  Hopefully, they will get their tempo and precision back for the playoff game.  

Hendrickson will have to be on the mark, as he usually is.  Jordan Loos will need another big game at receiver.  To do that, several other receivers will need to step up to take the pressure off of Loos.  It would be great to see RB Michael Livingston have a breakout game.  And I hope to see Bulldozer Akins for few more runs against the Eagles.

Outcome

Thurston has to regain the offensive 'pop' that they had when Woody was playing.  The two week focus on this game gives coach Starck the opportunity to tinker with his O.  I'm predicting a Colt victory.  I'll be happy if it's by a little or a lot.  But they better not let the Eagle running machine get a lead and get on a roll.  

I'll be there, and I think it will be fun to compare the 5' 9",  180 pound Niko to 6'2" 265 pound Akins as running backs.   It'll also be fun to contrast the two as a 5'9" RB and a 265 pound DL.

PS I went to the Sheldon-Tigard game last week.  Sheldon's O is ridiculous.  And they were blindingly quick on special teams, with two special team scores.  However, the playoff bracket gods were not kind to Sheldon.  Starting this week, they play Aloha from the Metro league.  Aloha is primarily a running team, an Irish defensive weakness.  Their bracket from here on out is almost all running teams. Should the Irish make it through this week they most likely move on to face nemesis Lake Oswego, then possibly Canby, and then undoubtedly Jesuit in the finals.  If you are an oddsmaker, you wouldn't give Sheldon much of a chance to go 5-0 in the playoffs against running teams.  But that is what they will have to do.  They are already 1-0.  (Note, Tigard, last week's victim,  finished the season 3-7)

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