Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Streak Week. Keep or Beat the Streaks.

Churchill 3-0 @ Thurston 3-0
It doesn't get any better than this. Thurston's high flying Colts have a 10 game league win streak going, but got hammered by 6A South Eugene, 49-14, earlier this season. Churchill has a 7 game win streak this year, but suffered a 48-6 loss to 6A Sheldon in the first game of the season. That gives both teams sweeps of non league 5A competition and three game sweeps of MWL opponents. A Churchill win clinches a number one playoff seed, as they would own wins over Marshfield and Thurston. A Thurston win sets up a regular season finale for the Colts in Coos Bay with a possible outcome of a three way tie for first.

So who wins? Everyone outside of Bailey Hill thinks it will be a Colt stampede. But hold on. None of Thurston's wins have come against a team with a winning record. And their lopsided wins over Willamette and Springfield came when the other team's primary running back was knocked out early. (Watch out Lancer backs)

Thurston is averaging 508 yards per game in league. Yikes! 290 yards in the air, mostly on the arm of Chance Hendrickson. Hendrickson is completing 68% of his passes, has 11 TD passes versus 3 ints, and is averaging 283 yards per game. Thurston is averaging 218 on the ground, mostly from junior Tyler Johnson (102 YPG) and senior Mike Livingston (70). The receiving corp is led by junior Jordan Demoss and seniors Jordan Loos and Livingston. (Andrew Woody is out for the season with a broken hand suffered before the third league game against North Eugene) All told, 12 different Colts have caught the ball in their three league games.

Thurston's D is led by last year's MWL Defensive Player of the Year, linebacker Kyle Wright, and junior lineman Kraig Akins. Definitely take your eyes of the ball for a few plays and watch these two on D. Team leaders in tackles include senior DB's Greg Nichols & Kody Powell and junior DB's Tanner Rhoades & Kristian Smith.

Churchill has put together it's usual high-octane offense. That's no surprise, but of note is that junior QB Spencer Savelich threw just four passes a game in pre league games, then was suddenly thrown into the position at Marshfield. Savelich responded with a 22 for 42 night and a come from behind win. Junior Brandon Determan had a great pre league as a receiver. Determan's preleague performance, along with the expected good stats from Sam Graham, gave hope to the Lancers that they would do well in league. I thought the Lancer's weren't spreading the ball around enough to get by the quick D's of Springfield and Willamette, but seniors Daniel Weyers and Josh Moreland have been in the receiving mix a lot more since league started. The Lancer's haven't found a feature back and have been been using junior Nick Bell and sophomore Aaron Ingram to pound out 4 yards a carry. Their sneaker back is Sam Graham, who doesn't get many touches because he's primarily a receiver, but when he does get called upon to run, he's gone.

On the D side of the ball, senior LB Kalen Dennis leads the Lancers in tackles. Right behind Dennis are LB Josh Moreland, DE Brynnan Hyland and DB Sam Graham.

I'm hoping for a great game. I've got to go with Thurston on The Farm. The Colts are the only team in the league that more than matches up with the Lancer's in speed and strength. I don't think the gap is huge, but the Colts are deep and just don't let up. Both teams have had several games where they are slow out of the chute. If either team gets out too late, the other will need to stomp on them early, as both teams have shown they love to explode in the second half.

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