2009 State Football Finals

A nice thing about state finals, versus BCS votes, is that there really isn't any reason to debate who the best team in the state is.  The best team won on the field.  However, I actually heard a radio announcer say Jesuit outplayed Sheldon.  Of course he said he didn't want to take anything away from Sheldon.  Excuse me, but S-C-O-R-E-B-O-A-R-D.  

6A: Sheldon led wire to wire. The final score consists of all phases of the game, not just one guys incredible running.  What about Jesuit's special team muffed punt? What about Sheldon's long kickoffs and Jesuit's bobbling of most of them? Did Sheldon outplay Jesuit in special teams?  What about the Sheldon defender stripping the ball out of a Jesuits player's hands?  What about the incredible speed that Sheldon can put up points?  What about Sheldon's O line not giving up a sack?  Overall, it was close, but Sheldon outplayed Jesuit.

5A: I was once again impressed by Hillsboro's D.  Their lateral motion to get to the ball was incredible, and their DB's were always close enough to bother the receivers.  And there was almost always just enough pressure on the QB to take away the easy throws.  As often times happens in the semi's or finals, the trailing team had to pass but wasn't really a passing team.  The championship game was not the time for Jefferson to be forced into developing a passing game as Hillsboro D wasn't going to let the Jeff QB sit back and throw.  Jeff's QB Elisonoa Aluesi was 7 for 25 with two picks and a TD.  The Democrats longest pass went for just 20 yards.  Jeff's explosive running game was held to 4.6 yards per carry.  That would be great in the pros, but not in high school.  Hopefully we will see Hillsboro and Marist face each other next year.  Hillsboro's Colt Lyerla versus Logan Silver from Marist.  That would be fantastic.  

Marist's championship run was similar to Jesuits 6A season in 2006.  Not much competition.   Jesuit's closest 2006 playoff win was by 34 points in the first round that year.  Jesuit beat Sheldon by 58 in the quarters, Canby by 42 in the semis and Southridge by 49 in the finals.   Marist's 2009 playoff wins were by 62 over Cascade, just 8 over Central, then 35 over Ontario and 39 over Baker in the finals.  Except for the Central game, you can say Marist was totally dominant this year.  Marist graduates a ton of Sky-Em all leaguers, but they will be able to fill 9 slots with returning all stars.  Some of the names you are probably already familiar with: RB Logan Silver, LB (and great baseball player) Will Swindling and Matt Devereux.

Other than finding out who makes all state in football, it's time for baseball to start.  I'll watch a little hoops - I've already seen Springfield - but mostly I'll be driving by the cages at Swede  hoping to hear that 'ping' of the ball coming off of the bat.

OSAA Championship Committee Update - Nov 23

The OSAA Championship Committee met on November 23rd.  Here's the current thinking :

6A Thurston, Sheldon and South Eugene will drive up I-5, past six teams in the Central Valley Conference, past six teams in the Metro League, and past eight teams in the Pacific conference to play Grant and Lincoln.  Redmond will also be in this 6A 'Hybrid' league.  Two teams are guaranteed playoff spots, with all others eligible for one of 14 at large spots based on 'power rankings'.  (Don't fret, it's hard not to make the 6A playoffs.  28 of 44 teams go to state.  Almost 2 out of every 3 teams.

5A  The new 5A MWL is guaranteed two playoff teams.  The 5A teams are Churchill, Marist, Marshfield, North Eugene, Springfield and Willamette.  The teams that don't make the one or two seed will be eligible for one of nine 'at large' berths based on power rankings.  It's likely that the 5A MWL will have three or four teams at state every year as 54 % of all 5A teams will make the playoffs.

All in all, I like the set up.  I just think it is weird that after all of the effort to set up leagues to 'play locally' that our 6A teams will drive past three leagues to play 'hybrid league' games.  I also think there are too many 'at large' berths.  But having 9 and 14 'at large' slots will make it harder for teams to say they got cheated than if there were just 4 or fewer 'at large' berths.  All the Power Rating Gods have to say is, "Man, you had a chance to make one of nine (or 14) slots.  It's not like we only had two slots and we gave them to Notre Dame and Texas because they have tradition."

I also like it that the Eugene-Springfield schools are not  driving over Sexton Pass to play games in the winter and early spring.  Over time, a lot of games would have been rescheduled, and that's a real hassle for players, officials, coaches, AD's and parents.  

My only other thought is that I think they should cut the playoffs down to 16 teams.  High school ball isn't the pros with TV income, and $10,000,000  in gate attendance for one game.  Cutting back to 16 teams at each level would put 800 student's minds and seats back in the classroom for another week which would be a good thing.  Even at 16 teams, almost 40 % of the teams at the 4A-5A-6A level would make the playoffs.  Let's see: in some schools 90% is an A, 80 % is a B, 70 % is a C, 60 % is a D, and 59% or less is an F.  We are sending D and F teams into the playoffs.

Note: The OSAA Championship Committee has not finalized this plan and is still taking input.  Here's the link to the document OSAA CC Meeting.  If you read the OSAA minutes different than I do, or if you have other comments, click on the 'comments' link below the line or email me at  mwlnow@yahoo.com

State Finals PreGame Comments

All three MWL playoff teams lost to one of the state finalists - Hillsboro and Jefferson.  Our #1 seed, Thurston, lost to Hillsboro in the quarterfinals, 27-10.  Churchill fell to Jefferson in the second round of the playoffs,   56-27.  And Marshfield lost at Jefferson 25-31 in the Pirates last non league game of the regular season.     

Jeff was 0-4 when they hosted the Pirates and haven't lost since.  Jefferson's first five games were against teams that eventually made the playoffs, including 6A Grant, West Albany and Sherwood.  How's that for a killer non league schedule.? (Now if only the SEC teams would schedule like that, instead of playing powder puff girls teams like Florida International.)

If you have a kid who is going to play varsity football next year, take him to Reeser to watch the 5A and 6A finals.  It's a lot easier for a player to think 'state finals' if they've actually seen them - visualization is a well documented technique.  But more than planting that picture in football players minds is watching the studs on the field.  Jeff's QB Eli Aluesi is 6' 6" and 220.  Four Demo linemen are in the 300 pound range and a couple more go 280 ish.    The Demo RB, Ian Perkins, has rushed for 1835 yards at a 10.6 Yard Per Carry clip!  He's a JUNIOR and the QB is a SOPH.

Hopefully, you saw Hillsboro at Thurston.  Hillsboro is a solid team with their studs Colt Lyerla (a 6'5" RB who splits out a lot), RB Mikkel Smythe and QB Dominique Mims.  The Spartans have a super D and the players are good at taking what is being given them, the pass or the run.  

The word is that Jefferson is playing very disciplined ball, which is highly unusual for the Demos.  If they play one more game without yellow flagging themselves out of the game, I think they'll upset the #1 Spartans.  It's going to be a great game with tons of players to watch.

Sheldon vs Jesuit.

I've seen Sheldon three times this year.  I started with the season opener against Churchill.  Churchill's line played with a ton of heart and showed a lot of good technique, but were just overwhelmed by the size, speed and strength of Sheldon.  I came home and told my stepson, Alex Brink, you've got to see the Irish.  I said the Irish are on a different level than anyone else and only the 2006 Jesuit team could beat them.  (The 2006 Crusaders went through the playoffs 48-14 vs Tualatin, 65-7 over Sheldon, 63-21 vs Canby and 56-7 over Southridge) .  I haven't been too far off, although I don't think the state will ever again see a team like the 2006 Jesuit team.

Sheldon had a close call against Southridge, winning 33-28.  But perhaps being on national  TV was a bit distracting.  The only other semi close game was against Aloha - a 26-13 win for the Irish.  Note that both close calls were on the road against Metro teams.  And Sheldon will be on the road (at least it's a neutral site) against a Metro team.  

Sheldon's skills guys are explosive.  QB Jordy Johnson can be compared to Tym Pearson.  But add in the magic of Merlin to escape and a better passing game - Johnson has 40 TD's to 4 INT's.  Those stats include 5 SOC teams, 2 Metro teams, Central Catholic, Lake Oswego and Canby.  You can add in another 1062 yard on the ground.  He's a must see.

Sheldon has developed several strong, explosive and extremely fast backs over the past ten years.  Cameron Abeene is this years model.  Just when you think an arm tackle is going to bring him down, he 'pops' away and is gone, just gone.

Sheldon's WR John Campbell is unknown on the recruiting circuit, but who knows why.  He's averaging 21.5 yards per catch, 23 TD catches, and 108 YPGame.  That's unbelievable.   Curtis White, the 6'5" future Duck gets the press, with 17 yards per catch, 48 YPG, and 11 TD's.  Of course White is a chiseled 6'4, 250 pound Roman warrior.

The Irish can put some beef on the field if they want to.  Drew Minor checks in at 6'3" and 340 pounds and he's on the field a lot on offense and some on D.  The Irish also have a couple of 295 pounders, but you'll usually find some 230 pound lightweights protecting Johnson, or harassing opponent QB's.  (Several linemen/LBs return for Sheldon next year.  This sets up some interesting match-ups for Thurston's Kraig Akins as the Colts move up to 6A.  Sheldon's OL/LB Sam McCaskill 6'2", 220; OL/DE Kristian Tharp 6'2", 240; and LB Cooper Strom 6'1", 210  all return.)

Jesuit's line is similar to Sheldon's, but without the huge guys.  7 players are listed in the 230-250 pound range.  The Crusaders are the last of a long string of Sheldon playoff opponents that run the ball.  Normally, the Irish rush D is Sheldon's Achilles heel.  But so far the Irish have played stellar D in the playoffs.  They have one final test against a dominant running team and it's by far the biggest test of all.   Jesuit features two star backs, Jordan Talley and Keanon Lowe.  The QB, Jeff Elorriaga, uses the running game to set up an efficient passing attack.  The Crusaders average only 113 yards per game in the air, but Elorriga has 18 TD's to just 3 INT's.   The Crusader's play exactly the type of game that matches up well against the Irish.  On D, the Crusaders have given up just 5 TD's in their last 7 games.  On O, the Crusaders average 245 yards per game on the ground.  They have a clock eating ground game, which will keep the ball out of explosive Irish hands.

The 6A final game could go a lot of ways.  Sheldon could win in a rout.  Not likely, given Jesuit's D. Or  Jesuit could control the clock with long scoring drives and frustrate the Irish.   A possibility if Sheldon doesn't score on their first two or three drives.  Or the game could be a mid range scoring affair.  I'd give the Irish the slight nod if that's the case.  This game is just too hard to call.  All I know is that there is going to be war in the trenches, and there is a ton of speed and quickness at the LB and DB positions.  I couldn't ask for more.

For 10 bucks you can take in three games - I'm going to watch the 5A and 6A games.  

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Colts - Hillsboro game

For those of you not at the Thurston quarterfinal game, you missed a great game. The game was much closer than the three possession final score indicated.

In an early first quarter series, Hillsboro opened a drive going 0-3 passing and quickly turned the ball over to the Colts with 7:57 left in the first. After a Chance Hendrickson run and a completed pass to Jordan Loos for a first down, it looked like Thurston had found their rhythm. Sure enough, another completion to Loos and a run by Kyle Wright gave the Colts another first down. At this juncture, I'm thinking that Thurston will score a lot of points.

Then one of several Colt costly miscues occurred. A pass bounced off of a Colt receiver and to a waiting Spartan, who returned it to the Thurston 40. A few plays later in a drive that included a 4th and 5 conversion, Hillsboro's junior Colt Lyerla fumbled the ball into the end zone and a receiver fell on it for a TD and a 7-0 Spartan lead with 2:46 left in the first quarter. The Hillsboro TD was a little fluky, given that the INT bounced off a Colt receiver and the Spartan TD was off an offensive fumble. Now I'm thinking that the bad fortune can't continue the entire game, that the Colt D that shut down Hillsboro earlier will be fine with normal field position, and the O will stay in gear because there won't be anymore fluky turnovers. But little did anyone know, this type of sequence would be a recurring pattern of the game.

The Colts responded by going from their own 20 after the kickoff to the Spartan 20. The Colts got on the board with a 31 yard field goal from Gustavo Machucha with 10:40 left in the second quarter. 7-3 Hillsboro. The Colts got the ball back in less than two minutes at their own 23 as Thurston's D stayed strong. Coach Starck's O exploded with two runs, a 41 yarder by Michael Livingston, followed immediately by a 36 yard TD run by Tyler Johnson. 10-7 Colts with 8:15 left in the second Q.

The Colt D stopped the Spartans once again and got the ball back with 5:08 left in the half. Now I'm thinking that the Colts have stopped the Spartans consistently expect for the short field touchdown, and the Colts have scored twice in a row and are playing up tempo, so the Colts are going to roll. And they do. 20 yards to Andrew Woody. Another 11 to Woody. Then an 18 yard run by TJ. The Colt drive stalls but Machuca comes out to kick another FG from 38 yards out with under 2 minutes left on the clock. Worst case is a missed field goal and Thurston goes into the locker room with a lead after stopping Hillsboro, who would have poor field position. But the kick is blocked and returned to the Hillsboro 46.

The Colts looked like they were going to hold and go into the locker room with a 10-7 lead, but Spartan QB Dominique Mims threw a long dart to Lyerla, threading the needle between two Colt DB's. Lyerla made it to the seven, whereupon the Spartans ran it in for a 14-10 halftime lead.

Second Half

Down by just 4 the Colts stopped Hillsboro, then both teams traded three and outs, with Thurston getting the ball on their own 38 with 7 minutes left in the third. A first down run by TJ puts the Colts on Hillsboro's side of the field. The Colts still move forward, but the fans are getting restless. One adult says "Why don't you go with what got us here? Run Livingston and TJ." Another adult says, "Why don't you pass to Loos and Woody". I'm thinking, I've seen the Colts five times this year and Starck is setting up the bomb - don't worry. Sure enough a Colt receiver is heading towards the goal posts with a Spartan a stride behind. The throw is just a little long, but the play is there for the rest of the game. The Colts stall and Machuca comes on the field for another FG attempt to hopefully pull the Colts within 1. But the play actually turned into another blocked FG attempt. Once again, the Spartans capitalized with a couple of beautiful passes and went up 20-10 with 2:09 left in the third. There was still plenty of time for a Colt comeback.

Hillsboro gave Thurston hope as the final quarter opened by fumbling near the 50 yard line. Thurston got to Hillsboro's 17 with 9 minutes to play, but the Colts couldn't convert on a fourth and five and the odds started shifted rapidly towards Hillsboro. Hillsboro managed a final late TD to make it 27-10.

Great Game

I didn't know much about Hillsboro before the game. Mostly I had heard about the running game, with junior 6' 5", 220 pound D-1 prospect Colt Lyerla and Mikkel Smythe. With the big guy, I had imagined a precise, smash mouth oriented running game, with the QB taking advantage of the DB's and LB's overplaying the run. Instead, the Hillsboro O wasn't too different than the Colts, with their QB going 15-23 for 211 yards and Lyerla and Smythe making key runs when needed.

What impressed me was Hillsboro's defense. The Spartans held the Colts to zero passing TDs, the only team to do so this year. While I don't recall Hendrickson getting sacked, the Spartans were always pressing him. He just couldn't leisurely stand back and throw to wide open receivers. More impressive was the Hillsboro LB's and secondary. Even when the DB's were beat deep, they were just a step behind, which required a throw right on the money. And the side to side speed of the LB's kept the short passes short and Livingston's and TJ's runs short for the most part. Take out the two longs runs on the Colt TD drive and Livingston and TJ were held to 3 yards per carry.

It was a great year for Thurston. I was fortunate to see the Colts against Willamette, Churchill, Marshfield and the playoff games. It was fun to watch Chance Hendrickson develop into a 64% passer, throwing for 235 yards per game. I wish he could have had a 'redshirt' year. It's always fun to watch Thurston's receiving corp - Loos, Woody, Demoss and Wright being this years stable. And TJ's development at RB - 7.4 YPCarry, helped take pressure off of Livingston - 6.8 YPC - to give the Colts a hard to believe balance. Livingston will have to bestow his receiving skills on Johnson for next year. Livingston hauled in 23 passes at 13 yards per catch.

And then there was the Colt D. League co-MVP's Wright and Kyle Akins were fantastic. Akins has the opportunity to officially become a 'Beast" next year. I haven't seen many linemen officially become 'Beasts'. I can think of Tim Brown from Sheldon and Bill Swancutt of Sprague. They were built like bulls and could take bigger guys and extend one forearm and knock them on their tush. I think Akins has that potential.

Final thoughts

Did the announcer really say Anthony 'Peanut' Havens? I don't recall the 'Peanut' part from last year's baseball.

Thurston will be playing with the big 6A boys next year. I'll be going out of my way to see them take on Sheldon or one of the other 6A schools from the old SOC.

If you have a son who is going to be playing varsity football during the next few years, get out and see some playoff games with your son. Starting with last week's quarterfinals, the teams that were left were all fit, strong and quick. That's off season work. Before the game get down as close to you can to the field. You'll notice the consistency of players who are 'cut'. I really noticed the difference when Thurston hosted The Dalles-Wahtonka. The Eagles had some huge players, but Thurston was in far superior shape. Final Score: Fit, strong, quick team 49. Big team 7.

You can comment by clicking on the 'comments' link below the line or email me at mwlnow@yahoo.com

Thurston 49 The Dalles-Wahtonka 7

I was sitting in the Thurston 'Adult' section instead of my usual sideline position shooting photos.  I was hearing lots of comments about how BIG the Dalles-Wahtonka line was during warm ups.  My only thoughts were, "It's all over for The Dalles-Wahtonka".  There's a huge difference between BIG and big and cut.  When I see a BIG team on the field getting ready to play Thurston, Marist or Sheldon I know it's going to be a lightning strike for the Colts/Spartan/Irish linemen.  

Next week will be a different story as Hillsboro, one of the four elite teams in 5A comes to The Farm.  There's only one team at 4A, Marist, which has all of the elements needed to dominate.  Unfortunately for the Colts,  the 5A and 6A divisions each have four teams that can dominate.  Thurston is one of those four teams at the 5A level, and the Colts will have to beat the other three, back to back to back to win state.  But let's celebrate the win over The Dalles-Wahtonka.

The day long downpour continued up until the teams left the field after warmups.  The game started without rain, but about half of the game was played in a downpour, about a quarter in a drizzle and about a quarter without rain.

Thurston received the opening kick off and came out up tempo and scripted.  Bam. Pass to Loos for 12 yards. Bam. Livingston for for a 27 yard run to the Eagle 20.  Oops... penalty, incomplete, sack, incomplete, missed long field goal. 

 The Eagles got the ball on their own 20 and started a five minute, 10 play drive to the Colt endzone.  Two pass interference penalties by some anxious Colts helped the Eagles get into scoring position.  Unfortunately for the Eagles, the endzone visit was by a wide receiver who slipped and fell down and a waiting Jordan Demoss picked it off for the Colts.  A penalty on  Demoss's long return put the Colts back on their own 4 yard line.  

Starting their drive with 5:47 left in the first quarter, the Colt line tore through the Eagles which allowed Michael Livingston put on a show, which he would continue all night.  Livingston eventually scored on a 30 yard run with 3:33 left in the first. Colts 7-0.

The Eagles fumbled the kickoff and Thurston took over on the 27.  After a screen pass to Livingston, Tyler Johnson was given a little action and scored on an 8 yard run.  Colts 14-0 with 2:27 left in the first.

Two minutes later the Eagles punted and the Colts took over on the 49.   Johnon and Livingston took turns carrying the ball, with Johnson running it in from the two.  Colts 21-0 with 10:05 left in the second quarter.

The Dalles-Wahtonka started at their 44 and put together a nice drive in a fresh squall, but Thurston's Tanner Rhodes picked off the Eagles.  This drive looked a little more like the well balanced Colt offense.  A little Livingston, Johnson, Hendrickson running, and Loos, Wright and Livingston receiving.  Johnson gets the honors with his third TD of the night with 57 seconds left.  Colts 28-0.

Other than the first drive by the Eagles, which was aided by two PI calls, the Eagles completely stalled out in the first half.  The usual scene was of a Colt or maybe two Colts blowing through the Eagle O line and scrunching the 10 yard per carry Ray Niko before he could get past the line of scrimmage.  ( I do think Niko was hurt by field conditions, but even a dry field wasn't going to give him the game the Eagles needed)

2nd Half

The Eagles received and two series later the Colts had the ball at their own 39.  57 seconds later Andrew Woody took a pass with one hand and lallygagged to the end zone for a 57 yard TD.  Colts 35-0.

By now, the roof had caved in on the Eagles.  13 seconds later, Thurston's Livingston scored from 10 yards out after a fumble recovery on the kickoff.  Colts 42-0

The Colts finally fumbled and the Eagles Niko gets a rushing TD.  The reserves come in and finish the game.  Stefan Drake gets a 2 yard TD to make the final 49-7.

Overview

It was great to see the Colts come out up tempo, no hesitation.  Good to see Woody in for several plays and a TD reception.  Great to see the Colts D line just destroy the Eagles. Great to see some mud football. Two big Colt backs, making one cut, then blasting for big yards on a treacherous field.  

Next week it's #4 Thurston vs #1 Hillsboro.  I haven't seen Hillsboro, but if the poll voters up north are saying they are better than Sherwood, which I've seen, then the Hillsboro game is going to be a fantastic game to watch.

Send corrections or comments to Gary at mwlnow@yahoo.com or comment by clicking on the 'comment' link below the line underneath this article.  (My fingers were frozen at the game and I can't read my notes)

Thurtson & Churchill First Round Playoff Match-Ups

I wish I could be at two places at the same time this weekend.  Churchill will have their hands full at #10 Jefferson against a team that averages over 10 yards per carry and #4 Thurston will try and get their O back on track while hosting #11 The Dalles-Wahtonka.

Churchill @ Jefferson

Jefferson
The Dems leading rusher, Ian Perkins, averages 10.2 yards per carry and 147 yards per game.  QB Eli Aluesi averages 10.8 yards per carry and 41 yards per game.  Before you say, "But the PIL stinks.", know that Perkins gains 146 yards against #2 West Albany, 148 yards against #3 Sherwood and 149 against Marshfield.  

The Dem passing game is a bit of a problem for Jefferson.  They did fine in league, but in their murderous pre-league schedule, which included Grant and Crater besides the teams mentioned earlier, the Dems were way upside down in their TD to Int ratio, and completed less than 40% of their non league passes.

Defensively, the Dems best outing in the non league schedule was giving up just 22 to West Albany.  Marshfield put 25 on Jefferson, and Crater laid on 28 points.  Sherwood, the most explosive 5A team I've seen this year, scored 40 against Jeff. 

Churchill
Churchill should have the defensive speed to keep the Dems within reach.  It'll be up to junior QB Spencer Savelich and his great stable of receivers to put a lot of points on the board.   WR's Sam Graham, Brandon Determan, Josh Moreland, Daniel Wyers and TE Brynnan Hyland all have to shine if the Lancers are to outscore the Dems.

Of course all of these guys will stay of the field  on the D side of the ball along with LB's Kyle Rehberger and Kalen Dennis.  The outcome of this game could come down to who is in better shape.

Outcome
Jefferson's field is usually very sloppy at this time of year, which would give Jefferson an advantage because of their strong running game.  I saw two close Sheldon-Jefferson playoff games at Jefferson and the Jeff backs somehow knew where the dry spots were.  (The two teams split the games)

Mud won't be a bad thing for the Lancers, though.   Passing games can be even better if receivers know when to stop and when to stop and go.  DB's just go flying by.  Also, RB's built low to the ground like 5' 10", 170 pound Nick Bell tend to do well in muddy conditions because counter steps get the defense going in one direction.   Bell (and Aaron Ingram) can then go against the grain while the defenders are sliding back on unsure footing to try and make the tackle while the RB is running a hard, straight line and shedding stretched out arms. 

I have to give Jefferson the nod.  I think the explosiveness of their RB and QB and home field advantage tip the odds in their favor.  But there are many scenarios that could lead to a Lancer victory.  One is that Jefferson frequently kills themselves with penalties and turnovers.  If Jeff starts out stumbling a little and Churchill can get a few early scores, Jefferson might have to go to the air, and the Dem's passing game just hasn't held up against good D's like Churchill's.

By the way, one of the best sportsmanship gestures I've ever seen was at the 2000 Sheldon at Jefferson game.  The Sheldon boosters took a bus to Jefferson on a cold, wet, windy night.  When we got off of the bus we were escorted to a special table and everyone of us was offered free hot chocolate.

Oh, and I want to know if the Winnebago with the constantly screaming fans on the roof is still parked behind the visitors bench (and visiting parents seats).  I mean non-stop, pro-Jefferson hooting and screaming at the top of their voices the entire game.  At first it was obnoxious, but it eventually got everyone smiling because you had to give a hand to a bunch of boosters who could root that hard, that long.

The Dalles-Wahtonka at Thurston

When I was in Coos Bay for the Marshfield-Thurston game, I heard that Andrew Woody might be back for the playoffs.  That would be huge for the Colts.  They certainly struggled on O in their 24-21 win over the Pirates, who were without one of their DB's.  For the second week in a row Thurston gained more yards on the ground than passing. The Colts had 168 rushing yards compared to 124  in the air against Marshfield.  That's not a good sign for the playoffs.

The Dalles-Wahtonka Eagles

Both IMC's first round teams won their playoff game, giving the league four teams left in the playoffs.  The Eagles beat the other IMC team playing last week, Hermiston, 33-29.  Let's see.... if the Eagles beat Hermiston by four, and Hermiston beat Marshfield by 21... and Marshfield lost by only three to Thurston, I think we have a game Friday night.

The Dalles-Wahtonka is primarily a running team.  They've rushed for over 2,500 yards and passed for 1,002.  The Eagle feature back is 5'8", 180 pound Ray Niko.  He's good for 131 yards per game and a lot of bruised bodies.  The QB, Duncan Wilcox,  runs the all about half as often as Niko.  Wilcox averages 36 yards per game running and throws for 97 yards on average.  His completion rate is decent at 53%, and has 15 TD's versus 7 Ints.  

In last weeks playoff game against Corvallis, Niko ran for 153 yards on 21 carries, but Wilcox struggled in the passing game, going just 3 for 10.

The Eagles D is solid.  The most anyone scored on them was 33, by Bend,  the IMC #1 seed.  The Dalles-Wahtonka has held 7 of 10 teams to two touchdowns or less.

Thurston

I watched the Colts last two games against Churchill and Marshfield.  In the 41-7 win over Churchill, the Colts looked crisp on offense.  They called their plays quickly and played at a tremendous pace.  In Coos Bay, the Colts seemed to be testing some different combinations at the receiver positions and looked a little confused coming to the line of scrimmage.  Their tempo did not seem as rapid as in the Churchill game.  Hopefully, they will get their tempo and precision back for the playoff game.  

Hendrickson will have to be on the mark, as he usually is.  Jordan Loos will need another big game at receiver.  To do that, several other receivers will need to step up to take the pressure off of Loos.  It would be great to see RB Michael Livingston have a breakout game.  And I hope to see Bulldozer Akins for few more runs against the Eagles.

Outcome

Thurston has to regain the offensive 'pop' that they had when Woody was playing.  The two week focus on this game gives coach Starck the opportunity to tinker with his O.  I'm predicting a Colt victory.  I'll be happy if it's by a little or a lot.  But they better not let the Eagle running machine get a lead and get on a roll.  

I'll be there, and I think it will be fun to compare the 5' 9",  180 pound Niko to 6'2" 265 pound Akins as running backs.   It'll also be fun to contrast the two as a 5'9" RB and a 265 pound DL.

PS I went to the Sheldon-Tigard game last week.  Sheldon's O is ridiculous.  And they were blindingly quick on special teams, with two special team scores.  However, the playoff bracket gods were not kind to Sheldon.  Starting this week, they play Aloha from the Metro league.  Aloha is primarily a running team, an Irish defensive weakness.  Their bracket from here on out is almost all running teams. Should the Irish make it through this week they most likely move on to face nemesis Lake Oswego, then possibly Canby, and then undoubtedly Jesuit in the finals.  If you are an oddsmaker, you wouldn't give Sheldon much of a chance to go 5-0 in the playoffs against running teams.  But that is what they will have to do.  They are already 1-0.  (Note, Tigard, last week's victim,  finished the season 3-7)

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All Stars and Next Year.

It's time for fans and three teams to think about next year. The five old MWL teams and new member, Marist, all have all stars returning. That wasn't the case last year as two teams didn't return an all star......


We don't know right now how football playoff teams will be chosen next year. Lot's of possibilities exist, including combining the six 5A schools in the MWL and the two 5A schools from Southern Sky, Ashland and Eagle Point, for the football season only. (To see initial OSAA thoughts on playoffs, including systems that use 'Power Ratings' see their document.)


QB's: Having a returning QB is a huge advantage. Churchill's Spencer Savelich and Springfield's Levi Green had very good years. Savelich's year is particularly impressive as he got the call during the first league game after having thrown just three passes in the Lancer's last two non - league games as a back up. Both Savelich and Green earned honorable mention all league honors. Marist's QB will graduate, but Logan Silver, their first team all league running back, was a combined 21-35, with six TD passes against Marshfield and Springfield. If Logan stays an RB, sophomore Josh Paiment got in some playing time almost every game. Marshfield has a quality back up returning in Dallas Milburn while North Eugene has both Dylan Lubonski and Jackson Landgreen returning. I'm not sure what Willamette has in the wings as both of their QB's who played in league were seniors.
Advantage: Churchill & Springfield. Of this group, returning all-stars Savelich and Green give their teams a tremendous edge right out of the blocks for 2010.


Receiver's. Savelich will be throwing to 2nd team all leaguer Brandon Determan. Green has no such luxury. The top six Miller receivers graduate. Marist returns 2nd team all leaguer Taylor Waldcott. Other than Willamette's all leaguer Cameron Koehler and North Eugene's Alex Wilson and several backs who occasionally slip out of the backfield to catch a pass, most of the receivers in league graduate. Look for North's Taylor Demerick, a speedy 1st team special teams player to take on a larger role in the Highlander passing game next year.
Advantage: Churchill & North Eugene


RB's: It will be interesting to see what role Marshfield's Ryan Scoville plays next year for the Pirates. Will he continue to be a sneaker back, with few touches but lots of yards. Or will he be a go-to back? I'd like to see the Pirate line step up a level and match Thurston's conditioning and strength and put Scoville behind them all of the time. ... Marist's first team RB, Logan Silver almost hit 1000 yards in regular season, averaging 8.7 YPCarry. And remember, he played two games at QB. The other returning all league back is Skylar Mohr over at Willamette. Mohr ripped off 7.7 yards per carry in league. Another Wolverine to watch is sophomore Jordan Visarraga. Springfield returns Thomas Spikes, who pounded the ball for the Millers. Several other 'good for three yards' backs return. Marshfield's Jorgen Mulkey, and the duo of Nick Bell and sophomore Aaron Ingram at Churchill.
Advantage: Marist and Marshfield


Offensive Linemen: Bad news for the backfield. There aren't a whole lot of returning all league linemen. Or maybe that's good news, because no team has a big advantage. The studs are two way 1st team all leaguers Danny Granillo of Willamette and Matt Devereux of Marist. (Two year two-way 1st team lineman Kraig Akins graduates to 6A ball next year). Marist has another all leaguer (2nd team) on the line in center Chris Bender. Churchill and Springfield each return a 2nd team tackle - Zach Swann for Churchill and Kameron Bates for Springfield. The Pirates contribute a 2nd team guard, Kevin Kight.
Advantage: Marist by a little.


Defense

Only four MWL all leaguers return on defense next year. Springfield has two of them - DB Kyle George and two way all leaguer Kameron Bates at LB. First team Willamette LB Grannilo doubled as an all league O lineman. North Eugene brings back DB Jackson Landgreen. Marist returns four from the Sky-Em league. Marist's all league returnees are Devereux, LB Will Swindling, DL Logan Mayes and DB Brady Chiongbian .
Advantage: Marist by a little.


Overall

Swapping out Thurston for Marist was pretty even. Marist pasted Springfield and Marshfield in 2009 and although the Spartans graduate seven first team offensive players, I think they will be the team to beat.

Churchill has a great QB-WR combo returning in Savelich and Determan. At least one of their returning running backs, Bell or Ingram is bound to have a better year, and certainly neither will have a worse year. Tackle Zach Swann will have to motivate his fellow linemen. Right now I'm thinking Churchill earns a playoff spot.

After the Spartans and Lancers, I can't see that one or two teams have a stronger shot at the final playoff spot than the other teams.



Marshfield returns only two all leaguers, RB Scoville and Guard Kight, the least of any team in the league. Success starts in the off season and Coach Ainsworth is going to have convince his crew, especially the linemen, that they need to make former Pirate and two time MWL MVP Bobby McClintock look like a weightroom wimp, or the Pirates are going to have a long, long year. Scoville could be a 1000 yard back, but it won't come on 5 carries a game. And it would be criminal to give any back the ball more than that without any holes.

Willamette has two solid backs in Mohr and Visaraga. Of course, Danny Grannillo will be a force on both sides of the ball. Coach Fritz will need to find a QB and receivers, or opponents will just sit on the running backs. Perhaps a bigger issue for the Wolverines is reducing penalties and turnovers.

Springfield returns a very good QB, Levi Green. Unfortunately, the Millers graduate all of their receivers. On the upside, they return a total of five all leaguers (actually four - Bates doubled up), second most in league. They also return several offensive linemen. The Millers are actually in a decent position to prove themselves and earn a playoff spot.

North Eugene only had 7 seniors on their roster in 2009. Obviously, a tremendous number of juniors and a few sophomores got a lot of playing time. Most importantly, they return a lot of good linemen. Next year is a year when very few teams will have a lot of experience returning. North is a major exception. Bibbee was worth the price of admission this year, and I think they have some highlight film material guys returning. But they are more of the explosive, speedy type, rather than they "I beg you, please don't run over me" manner of Bibbee. If North can find a running back and balance out their O game a lot more, I think opponents will be surprised at their play. They should have a good line, and that's where it all starts.

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Colts or Pirates - Title(s) Game

We're down to the last night of the season and all we know is that there will be one, two or three champs this year.

As much as we think about rain in Oregon, we really don't have that many games that are influenced by the elements.  I'd say about one Friday a year.  It hasn't happened yet this year, but based on tonight's (Thursday) downpour, this might be it.  The game is in Coos Bay, so we might get to throw in a little fog to boot.

Thurston
There's not much more to say about the Colts.  The closest anyone in league has come to the Colts so far is 41-7.  Every MWL has faced the Colt machine except Marshfield.  But the Pirates know by now that the 2009 version of the Colts is very similar to the quick tempo spread offense of last year, minus the lighting bursts of Tym Pearson.  As a  reminder that the Colt passing O is still going strong, QB Chance Hendrickson is averaging 266 YPGame in the air during league, has 14 TD passes versus 4 Int's.  He's completing 70% of his passes.  You can find three Colt receivers in the top ten list in league.  Jordan Loos, Jordan Demoss and Andrew Woody.  Woody was lost for the season a few weeks ago.  Michael Livingston likes to slip out of the backfield and catch passes, and Kyle Wright saw a lot more action last week at receiver.

I don't picture the running backs, Livingston and Tyler Johnson as constant threats to break the big run, but Johnson is averaging 10 yards a carry in league and Livingston is averaging almost 7 YPCarry.  Coach Starck has everyone in east Springfield wanting to be on the Colt football team because they know they are going to touch the ball.  22 different players have run, caught, passed or scored for Thurston in just four league games!

The Colt D is almost as ridiculous.  Watch Kraig Akins and Kyle Wright for a few plays.  They just blow things up.

Marshfield
The Marshfield line has been opening huge holes for QB Kyle Tedder.  When Tedder isn't running wild, he is lateraling to Ryan Scoville for a long gainer.  Tedder is chasing Mike Bibbee for the league rushing title.  Tedder is averaging 131 yards per game. Scoville is easily the second leading rusher on the team in terms of yardage, but he is fourth is carries.  This guy can explode!

Marshfield leads the league in rushing, but is next to last in passing.  Look for Chris Krajcir to make some spectacular catches.  And 6' 3" Joey Morgan should be returning this week.

The Marshfield line is on the large side.  The Pirates can put a lot of 250+ pounders on the field. But they'll have to use a couple of their 200 pound and under guys, Cody Shipp and Kody Campbell,  to keep up with Thurston's quick D line.

Prediction
The game is in Coos Bay at Susick Stadium.  I'm betting that there will be a huge Pep rally Friday at Marshfield to get the word out about this game.  I hope there is a large and loud crowd.....  Thurston gets  hurt more by a constant downpour than will the Pirates.  If the balls get too wet, it will be difficult for Thurston to go to the air.  Plus, just getting a dry ball in and out of the game will slow down the Colts.....  But you can't count on the whether, so I'll go with what I've seen after seeing both of these teams twice.  Thurston gets the nod with their relentless up tempo spread option....  This isn't a no-brainer.  It was just five games ago that Thurston self destructed against South Eugene, who has won only three games.  And it was just three weeks ago that Springfield put a first quarter scare into Thurston...... I think it's going to be close enough that I'm driving all the way to Coos Bay just to see if my alma mater can knock off the #4 rated Colts and win their first and only title of the decade.

North Eugene @ Churchill

Churchill (3-1) can't afford to overlook North Eugene (0-4) in the last game of league and regular season.  The Lancers have to win to keep any hope of ending up in a three way tie with Thurston (4-0) and Marshfield (3-1).  Lancer fans with internet on their cell phones can listen to the Marshfield game, streamed by KMHS.  (Google 'Marshfield Pirate Radio'. )  

North Eugene
The Highlanders are averaging a respectable 182 yards on the ground in league.  Mike Bibbee accounts for 145 of those yards each game.  Churchill will be the last team to see Bibbee run the ball before he takes off to play linebacker at OSU.  The Lancers will certainly wear some 'mementos' for a few days after the 6'3", 225 pound bruiser is finished Friday night.

Jackson Landgreen played QB for North Eugene last week,  just the fourth time he has played QB this year.  The Highlanders average 101 yards a game through the air in league.  While it's unlikely to happen, Friday would be a great day to see the young Highlander receivers have a good game.  It's unlikely, because the Highlanders only complete about 7 passes a game in league as they use Bibbee to eat up yardage and clock.  The young receivers include sophomore Taylor Demerick, who opened last week's game with a kickoff return for a TD, and juniors Alex Wilson and Cody Ficek.  Those are awesome names for receivers.  They just sound like names a receiver should have.

There are some outstanding seniors on North's line.  Everyone knows about #73, Shay Riggs.  But there's also Alex Crum, and Brandon Whitlock. Friday will be the last  game for senior 6'2", 225 pound LB Taylor Racek.  The Highlanders will have Kyle DeHaven back at LB for next year.  These two were a very solid combo at LB

Churchill
Expect North Eugene to pound the ball on offense and expect North to go 'aerial'.  Not that the Lancer's wouldn't like to run a lot more, but they have had trouble getting the long breakaway runs their offense normally generates.  

Give the Churchill receivers a lot of credit for the Lancer success this year.  They developed into a great group of receivers while working with three QB's until league started.  Senior receiver Sam Graham has done well, as expected.  But it takes more than one good receiver, and junior Brandon Determan, and seniors Daniel Weyers and Brynnan Hyland have helped keep up the Lancer tradition of having a large stable of receivers.  Add in senior Josh Morland and let junior RB Nick Bell slip out of the backfield as a receiver, and who knows where the ball is going?

Junior Spencer Savelitch was handed the reigns for the league games. He has two incredible come from behind 1 point wins in league.  His partners in the backfield are RB's Nick Bell and sophomore Aaron Ingram.  Neither appear to be a breakaway threat, but they can be counted on to pound the ball.  That'll make an interesting comparison Friday, watching these two and North's Bibbee.  Bibbee isn't a scat back type runner, either.

Defensively, you are sure to hear 6'2" LB Kalen Dennis's name called frequently.  He is leading the team in tackles.  Another player you'll notice is 5'9", 240 pound D tackle Isaac Quientero, who make a ton of tackles from his D line position.  

Prediction
I'm expecting North to run the ball and try and control the clock.  If they get ahead early and Churchill makes several turnovers trying to catch up, North has a chance to win.  But Churchill is likely to wear down the Highlanders by constantly sending out their receivers, even when the Lancers are pounding the ball inside the tackles. Barring a heavy, heavy rain, Churchill should win this one.   

Millers (1-3, 2-7) @ Wolverines (1-3, 2-7)

Springfield and Willamette were eliminated from their faint hopes of a playoff spot last week.  So Friday night will be the last night of football for most seniors.  With no playoff pressure, players can play just for the fun of the game.  It'll be many of the senior's last blocks, passes, catches, runs and tackles.

For football fans, this will be an exciting game to watch.  Both teams are quick, hit hard on D, and both teams air it out on O.  Some of my favorite photos this year are of the Willamette D closing in on ball carriers like a pack of lean, vicious Wolverines.  How fitting.  The Millers are much the same way, I just didn't take my camera both Miller games I went to, or I would have a lot of similar photos of Millers closing in.

Springfield
Springfield has seen junior Qb Levi Green blossom this year.  He's completing 57% of his passes in league and averaging 157 YPGame.  Expect those numbers to improve next year with junior Jake Becker returning at receiver.  Becker leads the team in catches and yardage in league games.  Willamette will have to stop Becker and four other solid senior receivers: Nick Dillingham, Ellis McNaulty, Oliver Johnson, and Devonte Smith.  

Senior running back Alex Camarena will try to break out after spending considerable time off the field during league play due to an injury.  He played last week, but most of the heavy running load went to junior Thomas Spikes.  

Springfield has several juniors on their O line.  It would be great for the Millers if their line and juniors QB Green, WR Becker and RB Spikes could set up the seniors for a good offensive night and a season ending victory.

Willamette
Willamette senior Jake Hughes returned to the QB position last week.  Dylan Geyer, who had been handling the QB chores while Hughes was out, caught a 45 yard TD pass.  Nice reward for the QB work he put in.  Rafael Hidalgo ran for his second straight 100+ yard game after being sidelined with an injury.  Junior RB Skyler Moore has been rambling for over 7 YPCarry during league.  I'm sure Coach Fritz would have liked to have had this trio on the field at the same time all year.

I've seen every team in the league at least twice and my vote for the most exciting O player of the year is receiver Taylor Woodke.  His circus catches are 'Taylor Made' according to the Wolverine announcer.  I think that's called 'hyperbole', but many of his catches are certainly highlight material.  Woodke leads the league in catches and yardage by a mile.  This is surprising as every opponent knows where the ball is going on third down.  This guy knows how to find an open spot, and when he doesn't find an open spot, he outjumps and outfights his opponent. Wolverine opponents can't breathe a sigh of relief because Woodke will graduate.  A pair of 6' 1" juniors, Cameron Koehler and Brandon Haines, will return.  Springfield wont' have to wait til next year to worry about these two, they just have to wait til Friday.

On the D side of the ball, LB Danny Granillo leadsthe team in tackles with 57 so far.  He's a 6/1", 210 pounder - and just a junior! Take time out from following the ball a few plays and watch Granillo, #58, and the other Willamette LB's.  

Prediction
Willamette at full strength is tough to beat.  With Hidalgo and Hughes healthy, the Wolverines get the nod.  Even if Hughes gets sidelined, Geyer can step in and do the job.  The Wolverines Achilles heel(s) have been turnovers and penalties.  If the Wolverines go back to turning the ball over, the Millers could walk away with the win. 

Sit back and  enjoy this game.  These teams are fast and hit hard.  they both can air it out.  If it isn't pouring, expect some fireworks. 

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Bibbee vs Kaille Wong - Rushing Numbers

Mike Bibbee was a toddler when future NFL player, Kailee Wong, set the MWL regular season rushing record of 1,542 yards in 9 regular season games during 1993. Wong led the Highlanders to the playoffs while averaging 171 yards a game for the regular season. MWL teams played 8 league games that year, during which Wong rambled for 161.4 yards per game.

Wong ran off to Stanford for a great college career (on D) before heading off to Minnesota to intercept a Brett Farve pass and take it back All The Way. Rather than going out of state, Bibbee is heading to OSU to play linebacker. Before he says ‘adieu’, he has one last shot Friday night of catching Wong. I’m not sure if breaking Wong’s record would be a new MWL high as the Register-Guard hasn’t been tracking season stats the last few years during the six team league format. Nevertheless, breaking Wong’s numbers would be an outstanding accomplishment. And who wouldn’t want to be able to say, ” I did better than Kailee Wong in football.”

If I’m tracking the numbers correctly, Bibbee needs 139 yards against Churchill to pass Wong. That’s doable considering Bibbee is averaging 144.8 yards in league games. The game will be on artificial turf, so even a bit of rain shouldn’t make too much difference.

The league season hasn’t gone the way the Highlanders hoped. But I have to think it would be cool for Bibbee’s teammates if they could push him over the top and then watch as Bibbee hopefully goes on to have a solid career at Beaverville. (I’m a Duck) Then his teammates can come back to reunions and say, “You would have been nothing if I didn’t open all of those holes for ya.”

For those precious reunion conversations to occur, Bibbee will have to complete two tasks. One, gain 139 yards Friday. And two, work incredibly hard academically and athletically the next four or five years at OSU.

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Willamett vs North Eugene

Most MWL fans are assuming that Thurston, Marshfield and Willamette will win on this very important Friday. However, it's not even close to automatic in any of the games.

The Willamette - North Eugene game will get down to if Willamette can control turnovers and penalties versus if the Highlanders can break out Michael Bibbee for big yards and clock control.

Have you realized this about these 0-3 in league teams? They are not out of the playoffs yet! There's still the possibility of getting in a three way tie for third with a 2-3 record.

Willamette
QB Dylan Geyer has been solid in league, completing 53% of his passes and averaging 201 yards per game. His primary target is senior Taylor Woodke. Woodke is dominating the league in stats and spectacular catches. The best defense against a 'Taylor Made' catch is to have an opposing parent shoot the ball out of the air if it's headed toward Woodke. Other key receivers are juniors Cameron Koehler (15 yards per catch in league) and Brandon Haines. RB Rafael Hidalgo was back in action last week after missing a game and a half. He responded with 102 yards, and better yet, didn't have a cast on his arm, so ball control was much improved. Having Hidalgo back at full speed and without the cast could go a long way in helping the Wolverines control their turnovers. Hidalgo is better able to secure the ball and having Hidalgo at full strength will slow down the Highlander pass rush.

North Eugene
The Highlanders live by the run or die by the run. And why not? It's a hoot for fans to watch an entire defense stack up to stop RB Michael Bibbee and usually fail. Thurston became the first team this year to hold Bibbee under 123 yards. Not surprisingly, now that were into league games with playoff spots on the line, teams are much more focused on stopping North's run. North's game plan will have to account for opponents having 11 players key on Bibbee. While Bibbee gets the attention, the league's most underrated player, junior Alex Wilson, has been having quite the year running and receiving. He's taken the few carries he gets and averaged 50 yards a game, and caught half of North's completions for another 40 yards per game.

On D, LB's Bibbee and Kyle DeHaven lead the Highlander charge. Junior DB's Jackson Landgreen and Wilson are the most likely to catch whatever the linebackers don't catch.

Prediction
I've seen both teams at least twice. I'm going with Willamette. I believe Wolverine turnovers will decrease rapidly with Hidalgo playing with two good paws. With fewer Willamette turnovers, it will take a huge night by Bibbee or a breakout by Wilson for the Highlanders to win.

Can Millers stop the Marshfield streak at 21?

The Millers last stopped the Pirates in 1987. The 1987 win broke a Pirate 20 year streak. The Millers are due.

Miller Advantages
The game is at Silke on grass. That's two big advantages for the Millers. One - Silke is a great environment for the Millers; covered stands, the giant Miller balloon looming over the opponents all night, a great band and the best cheerleading team in the state. 2 - the Pirates haven't played on grass in several weeks.

There are a lot of teams in the MWL with good team speed this year. Springfield is one of them, but they probably need everyone on hand. A big question for Springfield is "Will the speedy Camarena be ready to play?" An option to not having to chase down Pirates Tedder and Scoville is for every player to 'stay home' on D. I think that's too much to ask of 11 guys on a high school team. Heck, Pac-10 teams can't stay home when they play the U of O. Eventually, a player leaves home to follow a fake and the foot race is on. Another option is to send more players after Tedder and force the Pirates to pass.

Springfield junior QB Levi Green has really come on strong the last four games. He's consistently completing passes in the 60% range, and that includes games against Sherwood and Thurston. Green threw for 267 yards against the Colts and 166 against Churchill last week. Springfield has an unknown and almost all senior receiving corp. These guys are way better than the press they are getting. Jake Becker, Ellis McNulty, Nick Dillingham and Oliver Johnson have all been getting a lot of action in league ball. Becker and McNulty are the likely ones to pop a long score. Thomas Spikes and Devonte Smith picked up the load for Alex Camarena last week when Camarena was sidelined the entire game. Spikes and Smith ran for 157 yards combined.

This is a must win game for the Millers. A Springfield loss knocks the Millers out of the playoffs.

Pirate advantages
The Pirates have become an almost exclusively option team. Senior QB Kyle Tedder leads the league in rushing. Junior RB Ryan Scoville is the 'Quizz' on the team. He doesn't get the large number of carries like the OSU back, but when he does, he is gone. The guys pounding it up the middle are senior Talo Silver and junior Jorgen Mulkey. Don't expect either of these two to break the long one, but they are a load to bring down in short yardage situations. I'm sure the Pirates would like their passing game to blossom. Don't expect it to break out this week. The Pirates will be down one key receiver Friday. Do look for Chris Krajcir. He's a route guy with great hands who fights for and wins lots of jump balls.

Prediction
I've seen both teams twice. Neither team has been consistent enough for me to get overconfident about predicting this game. I'm going with the Pirates. They all but abandoned the passing game last week and still couldn't be stopped. If every Miller stays home on D every play, they can shut down the Pirates. But I can still see the few missed assignments by Willamette last week against Marshfield and I know how easy it is to get lulled into chasing the ball.

Streak Week. Keep or Beat the Streaks.

Churchill 3-0 @ Thurston 3-0
It doesn't get any better than this. Thurston's high flying Colts have a 10 game league win streak going, but got hammered by 6A South Eugene, 49-14, earlier this season. Churchill has a 7 game win streak this year, but suffered a 48-6 loss to 6A Sheldon in the first game of the season. That gives both teams sweeps of non league 5A competition and three game sweeps of MWL opponents. A Churchill win clinches a number one playoff seed, as they would own wins over Marshfield and Thurston. A Thurston win sets up a regular season finale for the Colts in Coos Bay with a possible outcome of a three way tie for first.

So who wins? Everyone outside of Bailey Hill thinks it will be a Colt stampede. But hold on. None of Thurston's wins have come against a team with a winning record. And their lopsided wins over Willamette and Springfield came when the other team's primary running back was knocked out early. (Watch out Lancer backs)

Thurston is averaging 508 yards per game in league. Yikes! 290 yards in the air, mostly on the arm of Chance Hendrickson. Hendrickson is completing 68% of his passes, has 11 TD passes versus 3 ints, and is averaging 283 yards per game. Thurston is averaging 218 on the ground, mostly from junior Tyler Johnson (102 YPG) and senior Mike Livingston (70). The receiving corp is led by junior Jordan Demoss and seniors Jordan Loos and Livingston. (Andrew Woody is out for the season with a broken hand suffered before the third league game against North Eugene) All told, 12 different Colts have caught the ball in their three league games.

Thurston's D is led by last year's MWL Defensive Player of the Year, linebacker Kyle Wright, and junior lineman Kraig Akins. Definitely take your eyes of the ball for a few plays and watch these two on D. Team leaders in tackles include senior DB's Greg Nichols & Kody Powell and junior DB's Tanner Rhoades & Kristian Smith.

Churchill has put together it's usual high-octane offense. That's no surprise, but of note is that junior QB Spencer Savelich threw just four passes a game in pre league games, then was suddenly thrown into the position at Marshfield. Savelich responded with a 22 for 42 night and a come from behind win. Junior Brandon Determan had a great pre league as a receiver. Determan's preleague performance, along with the expected good stats from Sam Graham, gave hope to the Lancers that they would do well in league. I thought the Lancer's weren't spreading the ball around enough to get by the quick D's of Springfield and Willamette, but seniors Daniel Weyers and Josh Moreland have been in the receiving mix a lot more since league started. The Lancer's haven't found a feature back and have been been using junior Nick Bell and sophomore Aaron Ingram to pound out 4 yards a carry. Their sneaker back is Sam Graham, who doesn't get many touches because he's primarily a receiver, but when he does get called upon to run, he's gone.

On the D side of the ball, senior LB Kalen Dennis leads the Lancers in tackles. Right behind Dennis are LB Josh Moreland, DE Brynnan Hyland and DB Sam Graham.

I'm hoping for a great game. I've got to go with Thurston on The Farm. The Colts are the only team in the league that more than matches up with the Lancer's in speed and strength. I don't think the gap is huge, but the Colts are deep and just don't let up. Both teams have had several games where they are slow out of the chute. If either team gets out too late, the other will need to stomp on them early, as both teams have shown they love to explode in the second half.