Predictions for Oct 21

I'm ahead of MWL fans in my predictions 20-19 after six weeks of picks.  My picks this week are the same as fan picks, so fans won't catch me this week.  Maybe, I'll toss up a couple of top non league games next week to give fans a chance.

Two key MWL games this week and they could be good ones.

Churchill at Willamette.
Air Lancer is in full force.  QB Mitch Reese, along with Reid, Bennion and Molinski are quite the group.  Lancer linemen must be doing some great things on the line.  On the opposite side will be QB Dustin, with Leber and Giles.  Crownover will probably miss this week's game after missing the Marist game.  That was a huge blow for the Wolverines.  I think Crownover's absence allows the Lancers to  focus on Visarraga.  Going with Churchill.

Ashland at Eagle Point.
I had this one penciled in to go watch when I started the season.  But two weeks ago I realized this weekend is my wife's birthday weekend. And her owner's manual says husbands don't go out of town for a high school football game.  So I'll be at Willamette where Principal Haliski has to 'monitor' her middle school kids.  I really wanted to see a battle between two old Southern Conference schools, and especially these two.  This game will be the darting swiftness of the Grizzlies versus the pounding of the Eagles.  (They should swap mascots based on their types of game)  Gotta go with Ashland, but I think this game has the biggest possibility of upset written on it.  Eagle Point can control this game on the ground.

Marshfield at Marist
Is this the last Marshfield football game in a 5A league?  The Pirates have petitioned the OSAA to move down next year, so this could be their final year in 5A. The outcome isn't in doubt.  So perhaps it would be good for Marshfield fans to see the type of Spartan machinery that was on display last week and in the second half of the Marist-Eagle Point game.  The Pirates could study game film afterwards and try to copy Marist when the Pirates go 4A.  Marist wins this one.

Springfield at North Eugene.  
I'm surprised at the lopsided vote in favor of Springfield (88%).  The game is at North Eugene and North has some super talented skills guys and plays as hard as anyone, they are just thin in numbers and that takes it's toll in games.  Maybe people don't vote for North because we don't have stats on them, but I'd bet Highlander running back Sean Collum would be in the top five running backs in yardage gained.  Maybe even second!  There is no place like home, so maybe the Highlanders will take this one.  But I, too, am going with the Millers.

There are some hot games in state this weekend, and our RPI's are going to be affected by them.  Our non league opponents records impact our RPI.

Corvallis, Silverton and South Albany all have key games, with their MWL September 2 opponent.
#6 Corvallis (Marist) plays #4 Lebanon
#7 Silverton (Springfield) plays #10 West Albany
South Albany (Willamette) plays Dallas

Willamette fans want South Albany (0-7) to win, as a Bulldog win will help South Albany's RPI.  But North Eugene and Marshfield are entangled with South Albany's RPI by being in the group of schools who might be knocked out of the playoffs based on the lowest RPI's.  South Albany's opponent is Dallas (1-6) and is another school trying to avoid playoff elimination.

Willamette at Marist last week

    You may have noticed I didn't make any comments about the Marist game, which I attended.  I can't think of seeing anything as impressive as Marist's first half (63-0) start.  Everybody but Marshfield has seen Marist in a game.  Only Willamette and Eagle Point have seen what Marist can do for an entire half if they put their mind to it.  It's impossible to describe, you just have to see it.  While the lopsided nature of the score took the suspense out of the game; after a while, you just had to sit back and relax, watch and enjoy seeing football played at such a high level. Marist almost made it look effortless.  Hopefully, they can repeat that deep into the playoffs.
    Maybe I should have seen it coming.  A couple of times during last week I did think about the fact that Marist had beat Ashland 49 - zip.  And that Ashland beat Willamette 49-12.  Logic says that if Marist beat Ashland by 49 and Ashland beat Willamette by 37, then Marist would beat Willamette by.....  But I didn't think that would really happen......  It took me awhile to realize that Mitch Crownover, a really good 6' 3" receiver, wasn't on the field for Willamette.  Crownover isn't worth 66 Wolverine points against Marist, but not having him really changes the dynamics and strategy of Willamette's offense. And the Wolverines weren't about to have the tall Crownover in the secondary to at least block the view of Walcott, Baird and Paiement.

You can vote here

A final sad (to me) thought.

Tomorrow night might be the last night of tackle football for a few seniors in our league.  The end of fall sports for seniors is the start of the wind down to graduation and saying good-bye to each other - sometimes forever.