Oct 13-14 predictions and How I voted in OregonLive Poll

Playoff Seeding

I've heard a couple of  versions of how 5A teams will be seeded for the playoffs, but I'll go with what is on the OSAA site for now. 

• The MWL is in a 'South Region' with the IMC (3 teams) and MWC (8 teams).  That's a total of 19 teams in the South Region
• Three teams from the South will not go to the playoffs based on the teams RPI
• No more than two teams from a league will be eliminated.  Therefore at least six teams in the MWL will go to the playoffs based on RPI

Here are the bottom five teams in the South Region, based on RPI,  going into this weeks games.

• 472 - Churchill
• 442 -South Albany
• 425 - Marshfield
• 422 - Dallas
• 420 - North Eugene

   Churchill is probably safe, assuming the Lancers beat Marshfield this week on the coast - not an easy task in Coos Bay. 
   Marshfield's RPI should go up after their last game against Marist, win or lose.  Marshfield might be able to squeak by South Albany's RPI. 
   South Albany (0-6) still has to play the three other worst teams in their league.  Playing teams with poor records can hurt your RPI. But if South Albany wins one of those games, they might keep their RPI from tanking. 
   Dallas is in the same situation as South Albany, so Dallas will probably stay in the bottom three unless they win two or three. 
  North needs to take one of its games against Eagle Point or Springfield.  Note that nine teams in the North Region are behind North Eugene in RPI.

How I voted in the OregonLive Poll

1-1 Sherwood
2-2 Marist (Marist picked up another first place vote)
3-3. Corvallis
4-5. Mountain View
5-4. Bend (Bend hosts Mt. View Oct 21)
6-6. Lebanon (Lebanon travels to Corvallis Oct 21)
7-7. West Albany
8-9. Wilsonville
9-8. Ashland
10-12. Crescent Valley (Lost to Corvallis, Lebanon & W Alb)

On my watch list:  Willamette,  Silverton, Hermiston.  Note that Willamette closes out the regular season at Marist and hosting Churchill. 

Click to see the entire OregonLive.com polls  5A   6A    

MWL Oct 13-14 Predictions

Big game - Willamette at Marist on Thursday.
  I like the fact that MWL fans are giving Willamette a chance.  Currently, the voting is 62-38 in favor of Marist.  That compares to the other three games, where MWL fans give the favorites at least 85 percent of the vote. 
   I went over this game a lot in  yesterday's blog.  Willamette can't rely solely on Visarraga.  The Wolverines have to be able to go to the air frequently. 
    The Willamette line will determine the outcome of this game.  Can they improve a lot on offense over their game against Ashland when the Grizzlies lived in the Wolverine backfield and held Visarraga to less than 5 yards a carry and pressured Willamette into two interceptions while not yielding a touchdown?  I'm guessing Marist's coach Geske will stop the run first and assume his speedy D backs can track down any escaping receivers. 
   The Willamette D line has to deal with a Marist team that just focused on their running game last week and sprung Greg Park loose for 169 yards on 14 carries.  The Wolverines can't like that, after giving up 342 yard on the ground to Ashland three weeks ago.
   Spectators - whichever team has the ball, force yourself to watch the guards and tackles for the first second of a play.  Plays last about five seconds and you'll be surprised how fast you find the ball after you watch the lineman for a 'one thousand one' count.  Plus, you'll already know how successful the play is going to be, because you will have already seen if holes are opening up or if D players are breaking through.
   Gotta go with Marist, but I'm hoping for a game like last week's OT thriller at Springfield.

You can still vote in my MWL fan polls

Two other Thursday games.

Churchill at Marshfield.  Churchill was the first team ever in the MWL to score three touchdowns against Marist.  It isn't likely that Churchill will overlook Marshfield while thinking about  playing Willamette the following week.  Have to go with Churchill.  But, voters, a landslide vote for Churchill?  The game is in Coos Bay and Marshfield put up 36 points against Ashland at home two weeks ago.

North Eugene at Eagle Point.  Eagle Point will get back on track after the heart breaking OT loss last week.  North is glad to have Marist and Ashland behind them.

Friday game.

Springfield at Ashland.  Has Springfield's line improved enough to take on explosive Ashland?  Which Ashland defense will show up?  The one that held Willamette to 12 points or the one that let Mrshfield score 36? I'm going with Ashland.  After Marist, Ashland is the next best team at being consistent throughout a game. 

Tweet-Tweet

I'll be tweeting the scores out as they occur from the Willamette-Marist game.  If you haven't signed up for my tweets and want to get updated over  your phone, sign up at my Twitter page.

You can also sign up for the my MWL Facebook page.  It's mostly just for football and baseball. 

Photos

Eagle Point and Springfield game photos were added after last weeks games.  I got a pretty good handle on using flash last week after a botched attempt the week before.  It's tricky trying to fire off multiple shots with flash without burning out the flash unit.  The pictures are a lot better than the previous weeks effort.  Eagle Point Photos.  Springfield Photos.    List of Photo Pages By Team