Here's how I voted in the OregonLive poll this week.
My rank - OregonLive rank - OSAA rank
1 - 1 - 1. Sherwood
2 - 2 - 2. Marist
3 - 3 - 3. Mountain View
4 - 4 - 6. Corvallis
5 - 7 - 4. Bend
6 - 5 - 5. Lebanon
7 - 8 - 9. Wilsonville
8 - 6 - 7. West Albany
9 - 9 - 11. Silverton
10 - 10 - 8. Ashland
Someone commented last week that I should rank Marist number 1. Well, I gave it a lot of thought. But Sherwood clobbered Mountain View and Mountain View destroyed Eagle Point. In any event, I think Sherwood and Marist are the best two teams in state and we won't know which is better unless they play it on the field.
Will Marshfield make the playoffs?
It's a nail biter for the Pirates and they can't do anything about it on the field as the MWL chose to set up byes this week.
Marshfield is 12 RPI points ahead of Dallas. Marshfield's RPI wont' change much because the MWL is idle. The biggest direct impact on Marshfield's RPI will be the outcome of North Bend's game. The Pirates want the Bulldogs to win. That would have never happened when I was a Pirate
A win by Dallas over South Albany isn't worth much for Dallas in the RPI column, but it would push Dallas ahead of Marshfield by four RPI points before everyone's opponents records are adjusted and everyone's opponents' opponents records are adjusted. Dallas's opponents component will probably drop because their league opponents will be .500 for the night, which is below their season average. That's good for Marshfield. But who knows how everyone's opponents' opponents will do. Not even my excel spreadsheet can figure this one out. We'll have to wait until the very last 6A, 5A and 4A scores are entered on Friday night.
Churchill and Willamette fans.
Game photos were posted Wednesday.
Churchill Willamette
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Predictions for Oct 21
I'm ahead of MWL fans in my predictions 20-19 after six weeks of picks. My picks this week are the same as fan picks, so fans won't catch me this week. Maybe, I'll toss up a couple of top non league games next week to give fans a chance.
Two key MWL games this week and they could be good ones.
Churchill at Willamette.
Air Lancer is in full force. QB Mitch Reese, along with Reid, Bennion and Molinski are quite the group. Lancer linemen must be doing some great things on the line. On the opposite side will be QB Dustin, with Leber and Giles. Crownover will probably miss this week's game after missing the Marist game. That was a huge blow for the Wolverines. I think Crownover's absence allows the Lancers to focus on Visarraga. Going with Churchill.
Ashland at Eagle Point.
I had this one penciled in to go watch when I started the season. But two weeks ago I realized this weekend is my wife's birthday weekend. And her owner's manual says husbands don't go out of town for a high school football game. So I'll be at Willamette where Principal Haliski has to 'monitor' her middle school kids. I really wanted to see a battle between two old Southern Conference schools, and especially these two. This game will be the darting swiftness of the Grizzlies versus the pounding of the Eagles. (They should swap mascots based on their types of game) Gotta go with Ashland, but I think this game has the biggest possibility of upset written on it. Eagle Point can control this game on the ground.
Marshfield at Marist
Is this the last Marshfield football game in a 5A league? The Pirates have petitioned the OSAA to move down next year, so this could be their final year in 5A. The outcome isn't in doubt. So perhaps it would be good for Marshfield fans to see the type of Spartan machinery that was on display last week and in the second half of the Marist-Eagle Point game. The Pirates could study game film afterwards and try to copy Marist when the Pirates go 4A. Marist wins this one.
Springfield at North Eugene.
I'm surprised at the lopsided vote in favor of Springfield (88%). The game is at North Eugene and North has some super talented skills guys and plays as hard as anyone, they are just thin in numbers and that takes it's toll in games. Maybe people don't vote for North because we don't have stats on them, but I'd bet Highlander running back Sean Collum would be in the top five running backs in yardage gained. Maybe even second! There is no place like home, so maybe the Highlanders will take this one. But I, too, am going with the Millers.
There are some hot games in state this weekend, and our RPI's are going to be affected by them. Our non league opponents records impact our RPI.
Corvallis, Silverton and South Albany all have key games, with their MWL September 2 opponent.
#6 Corvallis (Marist) plays #4 Lebanon
#7 Silverton (Springfield) plays #10 West Albany
South Albany (Willamette) plays Dallas
Willamette fans want South Albany (0-7) to win, as a Bulldog win will help South Albany's RPI. But North Eugene and Marshfield are entangled with South Albany's RPI by being in the group of schools who might be knocked out of the playoffs based on the lowest RPI's. South Albany's opponent is Dallas (1-6) and is another school trying to avoid playoff elimination.
Willamette at Marist last week
You may have noticed I didn't make any comments about the Marist game, which I attended. I can't think of seeing anything as impressive as Marist's first half (63-0) start. Everybody but Marshfield has seen Marist in a game. Only Willamette and Eagle Point have seen what Marist can do for an entire half if they put their mind to it. It's impossible to describe, you just have to see it. While the lopsided nature of the score took the suspense out of the game; after a while, you just had to sit back and relax, watch and enjoy seeing football played at such a high level. Marist almost made it look effortless. Hopefully, they can repeat that deep into the playoffs.
Maybe I should have seen it coming. A couple of times during last week I did think about the fact that Marist had beat Ashland 49 - zip. And that Ashland beat Willamette 49-12. Logic says that if Marist beat Ashland by 49 and Ashland beat Willamette by 37, then Marist would beat Willamette by..... But I didn't think that would really happen...... It took me awhile to realize that Mitch Crownover, a really good 6' 3" receiver, wasn't on the field for Willamette. Crownover isn't worth 66 Wolverine points against Marist, but not having him really changes the dynamics and strategy of Willamette's offense. And the Wolverines weren't about to have the tall Crownover in the secondary to at least block the view of Walcott, Baird and Paiement.
You can vote here
A final sad (to me) thought.
Tomorrow night might be the last night of tackle football for a few seniors in our league. The end of fall sports for seniors is the start of the wind down to graduation and saying good-bye to each other - sometimes forever.
Two key MWL games this week and they could be good ones.
Churchill at Willamette.
Air Lancer is in full force. QB Mitch Reese, along with Reid, Bennion and Molinski are quite the group. Lancer linemen must be doing some great things on the line. On the opposite side will be QB Dustin, with Leber and Giles. Crownover will probably miss this week's game after missing the Marist game. That was a huge blow for the Wolverines. I think Crownover's absence allows the Lancers to focus on Visarraga. Going with Churchill.
Ashland at Eagle Point.
I had this one penciled in to go watch when I started the season. But two weeks ago I realized this weekend is my wife's birthday weekend. And her owner's manual says husbands don't go out of town for a high school football game. So I'll be at Willamette where Principal Haliski has to 'monitor' her middle school kids. I really wanted to see a battle between two old Southern Conference schools, and especially these two. This game will be the darting swiftness of the Grizzlies versus the pounding of the Eagles. (They should swap mascots based on their types of game) Gotta go with Ashland, but I think this game has the biggest possibility of upset written on it. Eagle Point can control this game on the ground.
Marshfield at Marist
Is this the last Marshfield football game in a 5A league? The Pirates have petitioned the OSAA to move down next year, so this could be their final year in 5A. The outcome isn't in doubt. So perhaps it would be good for Marshfield fans to see the type of Spartan machinery that was on display last week and in the second half of the Marist-Eagle Point game. The Pirates could study game film afterwards and try to copy Marist when the Pirates go 4A. Marist wins this one.
Springfield at North Eugene.
I'm surprised at the lopsided vote in favor of Springfield (88%). The game is at North Eugene and North has some super talented skills guys and plays as hard as anyone, they are just thin in numbers and that takes it's toll in games. Maybe people don't vote for North because we don't have stats on them, but I'd bet Highlander running back Sean Collum would be in the top five running backs in yardage gained. Maybe even second! There is no place like home, so maybe the Highlanders will take this one. But I, too, am going with the Millers.
There are some hot games in state this weekend, and our RPI's are going to be affected by them. Our non league opponents records impact our RPI.
Corvallis, Silverton and South Albany all have key games, with their MWL September 2 opponent.
#6 Corvallis (Marist) plays #4 Lebanon
#7 Silverton (Springfield) plays #10 West Albany
South Albany (Willamette) plays Dallas
Willamette fans want South Albany (0-7) to win, as a Bulldog win will help South Albany's RPI. But North Eugene and Marshfield are entangled with South Albany's RPI by being in the group of schools who might be knocked out of the playoffs based on the lowest RPI's. South Albany's opponent is Dallas (1-6) and is another school trying to avoid playoff elimination.
Willamette at Marist last week
You may have noticed I didn't make any comments about the Marist game, which I attended. I can't think of seeing anything as impressive as Marist's first half (63-0) start. Everybody but Marshfield has seen Marist in a game. Only Willamette and Eagle Point have seen what Marist can do for an entire half if they put their mind to it. It's impossible to describe, you just have to see it. While the lopsided nature of the score took the suspense out of the game; after a while, you just had to sit back and relax, watch and enjoy seeing football played at such a high level. Marist almost made it look effortless. Hopefully, they can repeat that deep into the playoffs.
Maybe I should have seen it coming. A couple of times during last week I did think about the fact that Marist had beat Ashland 49 - zip. And that Ashland beat Willamette 49-12. Logic says that if Marist beat Ashland by 49 and Ashland beat Willamette by 37, then Marist would beat Willamette by..... But I didn't think that would really happen...... It took me awhile to realize that Mitch Crownover, a really good 6' 3" receiver, wasn't on the field for Willamette. Crownover isn't worth 66 Wolverine points against Marist, but not having him really changes the dynamics and strategy of Willamette's offense. And the Wolverines weren't about to have the tall Crownover in the secondary to at least block the view of Walcott, Baird and Paiement.
You can vote here
A final sad (to me) thought.
Tomorrow night might be the last night of tackle football for a few seniors in our league. The end of fall sports for seniors is the start of the wind down to graduation and saying good-bye to each other - sometimes forever.
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Who doesn't go to State update and How I Voted
Last week I updated you on which 3 teams in the OSAA's 'South Region' won't make the state playoffs. According to the OSAA, the three teams with the lowest RPI among the MWL, MWC and IMC won't make the playoffs. No more than two teams from any league can be eliminated. Here's the update after last weeks games.
- Eagle Point 477
- Dallas 429
- South Albany 414
- Marshfield 412
- North Eugene 402
- Eagle Point is safe from elimination because their RPI shouldn't fall after playing Ashland.
- Marshfield could leapfrog over Dallas this week, even if Marshfield loses to Marist. Marshfield's RPI should jump to around 440. A Dallas win this Friday should put Dallas around 430. If Dallas wins out (beating 0-7 South Albany and 3-4 Woodburn, they will probably be in the 440 range along with Marshfield. I don't think the Pirates will know their playoff status until all scores are in on October 28.
- A win for North would boost their RPI to around 417. If winless South Albany keeps losing, the SA Bulldogs should fall to close to or under 400. Dallas could fall to around 415 or even less if they lost to 0-7 South Albany. But even if North passes South Albany and Dallas, the Highlanders likely will end up behind Marshfield and thus, one of the last three teams in the RPI column for the South Region..
The team with the highest RPI among the group of Dallas, South Albany, Marshfield, North Eugene gets to play Sherwood, Marist or Bend. Marist's RPI should fall to around 650 this week, while Sherwood's RPI will fall towards the 650 mark after their next two opponents. Bend's RPI is likely to go up this week. Here's a devilish thought. Sherwood plays a team on October 28 that will hurt the Bowman's RPI. Bend and Marist have bye's. If Bend and Marist schedule each other, they might both pass Sherwood. I'll do the math next week.
How I voted in the OregonLive Poll
My vote followed by the actual poll results.
1-1. Sherwood
2-2. Marist
3-5 Bend
4-4 Lebanon
5-3 Mt View
6-6 Corvallis
7-9 Wilsonville
8-10 West Albany
9- 7 Silverton
10- 8 Ashland
This weekend
- # 3 Mt View is at # 5 Bend
- # 4 Lebanon is at #6 Corvallis
- # 7 Silverton is at #10 West Albany
Oct 28
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
League Stats with a game to go.
League Stats With A Game To Go
Quarterbacks
At the beginning of this year, the big question was, "How would the quarterbacks do?'. No team had a quarterback returning and it looked like there was a possibility that only one qb would be a senior. When senior Britton Auxier took over Springfield's quarterback helm in the second league game that made it two senior qbs in the MWL, the other being Willamette's Dustin Leber. On the other end, Eagle Point's soph, Jorge Quintero, became the Eagle starter, making a total of two soph qbs, the other being Ashland's Danial White. So we ended up with two seniors, four juniors and two sophomores getting most of the playing time; with only one quarterback, Smith, returning as a starting varsity quarterback.
Results
Churchill junior Mitch Reese has passed Smith in total passing yardage in league games (by 17 yards) with Churchill playing at Willamette Friday, while Marist hosts Marshfield. Reese has been getting stronger as the season progresses. He's averaged over 300 yards per games in his last three games against Springfield, Marist and Marshfield. He's done a nice job of avoiding turnovers and has 14 td passes in league.Seniors Auxier and Leber are 3rd and 4th in league passing yardage. Auxier actually has the best passing yards per game at 265, but didn't play quarterback in Sprinfield's first league game, so he trails Reese and Smith in total league yardage. Auxier is completing 62 % of his passes and has a 4 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio.
Leber of course, spends a lot of his time handing the ball to Jordan Visarraga. But still, Leber has over a thousand yards passing in six games, while completing 59% of his passes.
The old Southern Conference has our leagues two sophs. Danial White has finished his whirling dervish act in the Eugene area and takes his show to Eagle Point. White has run for nine touchdowns in his last five league games. That's two more td's than he has thrown. White completes 67% of his passes, the highest in league, and rarely gets caught in the backfield while averaging 7.9 yards per carry. White is the sixth leading rusher in league.
Eagle Point's Quintero must feel like a Marshfield quarterback from the sixties. The Eagle's have been pounding the ball on the ground. Quintero has thrown 90 passes while the team has rushed the ball 270 times.
I don't have Marshfield's or North Eugene's stats. I'd guess that Pirate junior Jason Sweet is at least fifth out of eight in the league in yardage. And I'd guess North's Tyler Knabe is sixth or seventh in passing. If you have a source for these teams stats, let me know via email mwlnow@yahoo.com
QB summary so far
Seniors Auxier and Leber did a great job of taking over in their first year as starting varsity quarterbacks. They both did a more than solid job passing and they both have solid running games. Too bad they only got one year as the starter.
Juniors Smith and Reese. Smith is the only classic dropback passer in the league. Hopefully, some colleges will still be dropping back after the Ducks stomped Arizona State and their 6' 8" qb. In any event, it's been a bonus this year to see Smith link up with Walcott, Baird and Paiement so often. 
Reese had me worried. Beings that I am a person of Polish descent, I was watching for Reese and Molinski to link up early and often. But the Lancers had 'only' 173 and 207 yards passing in their first two league games. Since then, Tucker Molinski alone has had games of 142,161,186 and 186 again. That put Molinski in the league lead for receiving yards. The big surprise about Reese is that the first year starter has thrown so many passes with so few interceptions. Sophs White and Quintero. White put a little pressure on himself early by getting a mention in SI's Faces in The Crowd for his performance in the Rim Bowl win over Japan. He's lived up to expectations with a perfect balance of running and passing. He compliments running back Jon Volz to a tee.
As mentioned, Quintero might as well be wearing the old fog grey Marshfield uniform of the 60's. Quintero wasn't projected to be the Eagle Point starter during the pre-season, but he has the Eagles heading to the playoffs.
Rushing
With the QB's doing so well, it wasn't likely that we would have a lot of 100 yard rushers this year, but it looks like we may have four.Unlike passing, where underclassmen dominated, seniors own three of the four top spots. Note that the teams down south each have a player in the top five rushers, and both return...
Jordan Visarraga's stats were clipped back to 161 yards per game after the Marist game. Still, that's lights out and add in 19 touchdown runs in six league games!!! Visarraga faces Churchill in the last league game this Friday. Willamette will likely go without receiver Mitch Crownover again, thus putting a lot of pressure on Visarraga's (and Leber's) running game. MWL opponents are glad Jordan is graduating.
Ashland's Jon Volz likes to run against the big boys. Volz gained 200 yards against Willamette and 131 against Springfield. Those two games helped push his average to 108 yards per game. Eagle Point is pretty big, so maybe this junior will stay above 100 yards per game in league. He'll be BAAACK.
One of my favorites, Garrett Snow of Eagle Point, with his light, quick feet and dainty moves, has crushed opponents for over 100 yards per game. This senior brings back memories when the hash marks were in the middle of the field and turf was real grass. Coaches looked for big guys who could pound the ball from the fullback position. Snow is another runner MWL opponents are glad to see out of here.
Marist's Greg Park has spent the season making me eat my words that he isn't fast and won't have a lot of 20 and 30 yard runs. What's wrong with this fact... 'Greg Park is averaging 11.7 yard per carry.?' Maybe he's almost as fast as Walcott and Baird. For sure, opponents are glad Greg is graduating.Holding the number five spot is another Eagle, junior Jakob Combs. Remember that the Eagles have rushed 270 times and passed just 90 times in league. Snow and Combs have 185 of those carries. Combs is averaging 93 yards a game. And Combs -- He'll be BAAACK.
Receiving
The MWL really started producing qb's and receivers en masse when Sheldon started their still going run of qb's and receivers in 2001. Every year we know we're going to have two or three good ones return and then we wait for the newbies to break out. This year, seniors take the top two spots in receiving yardage, but juniors own spots three through six as of now.
Churchill's Tucker Molinski, as mentioned above, has exploded the last three games against great competition. His explosion probably has a lot to do with his own development, and for sure the improvement in qb Mitch Reese. Molinski is graduating. Going to be tough to replace him, as is always said about Lancer senior receivers.
Taylor Walcott is holding down second in yardage and touchdown receptions and leads the league in yards per catch. Walcott's yardage is certainly diluted by Marist's other two great receiviers Baird and Paiement. MWL opponents are saying, "Thank You, Thank You, Thank You." that Walcott is graduating.
Three of the four junior stud receivers had breakout years and we already knew about the fourth. Springfield's Jon Emerald, Churchill's Andrew Bennion and Willamette's Mitch Crownover were barely blips on the edge of the radar screen when the season started. All had 'po' but had to prove themselves. They have. All three have put up big time numbers.
Austin Baird is the fourth junior. Baird leads the league in receiving td's with nine, one ahead of teammate Walcott.
2012 combos
Glancing into next year....
Ashland: QB White in combination with RB Volz sounds good. But top receivers Lime, Geisslinger and Humphrey all graduate, with junior Quaid Waters waiting in the wings. Grizzlies are looking good.
Churchill: QB Reese, TB Tyler Reid and receiver Andrew Bennion. Could be a very good year, the Lancer's certainly have the talent at the skills positions. Any linemen coming up?
Eagle Point: QB Quintero and RB Jakob Combs return with Carlos Flores likely to get more balls thrown his way.
Marist: QB Kamerun Smith, WR Austin Baird and ten running backs fighting for the ball. If they don't win a RB spot, they become linebackers. Maybe Marist will graduate too many good linemen....
Springfield: Auxier graduates at QB, but Ty Mannila returns. Receivers Jon Emerald, Taylor Travess and Dylan Piquette will be the best returning group of receivers on paper. Some good RB's return - Daysean Price-Clark and Jevon Garcia. The Millers can take their game to a higher level with this group. Will they dedicate themselves in the offseason?
Willamette - Only team in the league who won't bring back a QB with at least two starts. The Wolverines will be building off of receivers Mitch Crownover and RB/Receiver Dante Giles.
Marshfield returns their qb and hopes to move to the 4A level next year. North Eugene had just a few seniors, they played a lot and were great skills guys. The key skill position where they retain someone is at qb, where Tyler Knabe returns. Hopefully, the 17 juniors on the North roster will return.
What a great year. The quarterbacks really came through. This weekend will finalize the league leaders and then it's off to the playoffs where league stats don't count for anything. For a full look at stats for league games click here
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Oct 13-14 predictions and How I voted in OregonLive Poll
Playoff Seeding
I've heard a couple of versions of how 5A teams will be seeded for the playoffs, but I'll go with what is on the OSAA site for now.
Marshfield's RPI should go up after their last game against Marist, win or lose. Marshfield might be able to squeak by South Albany's RPI.
South Albany (0-6) still has to play the three other worst teams in their league. Playing teams with poor records can hurt your RPI. But if South Albany wins one of those games, they might keep their RPI from tanking.
Dallas is in the same situation as South Albany, so Dallas will probably stay in the bottom three unless they win two or three.
North needs to take one of its games against Eagle Point or Springfield. Note that nine teams in the North Region are behind North Eugene in RPI.
How I voted in the OregonLive Poll
1-1 Sherwood
2-2 Marist (Marist picked up another first place vote)
3-3. Corvallis
4-5. Mountain View
5-4. Bend (Bend hosts Mt. View Oct 21)
6-6. Lebanon (Lebanon travels to Corvallis Oct 21)
7-7. West Albany
8-9. Wilsonville
9-8. Ashland
10-12. Crescent Valley (Lost to Corvallis, Lebanon & W Alb)
On my watch list: Willamette, Silverton, Hermiston. Note that Willamette closes out the regular season at Marist and hosting Churchill.
Click to see the entire OregonLive.com polls 5A 6A
MWL Oct 13-14 Predictions
Big game - Willamette at Marist on Thursday.
I like the fact that MWL fans are giving Willamette a chance. Currently, the voting is 62-38 in favor of Marist. That compares to the other three games, where MWL fans give the favorites at least 85 percent of the vote.
I went over this game a lot in yesterday's blog. Willamette can't rely solely on Visarraga. The Wolverines have to be able to go to the air frequently.
The Willamette line will determine the outcome of this game. Can they improve a lot on offense over their game against Ashland when the Grizzlies lived in the Wolverine backfield and held Visarraga to less than 5 yards a carry and pressured Willamette into two interceptions while not yielding a touchdown? I'm guessing Marist's coach Geske will stop the run first and assume his speedy D backs can track down any escaping receivers.
The Willamette D line has to deal with a Marist team that just focused on their running game last week and sprung Greg Park loose for 169 yards on 14 carries. The Wolverines can't like that, after giving up 342 yard on the ground to Ashland three weeks ago.
Spectators - whichever team has the ball, force yourself to watch the guards and tackles for the first second of a play. Plays last about five seconds and you'll be surprised how fast you find the ball after you watch the lineman for a 'one thousand one' count. Plus, you'll already know how successful the play is going to be, because you will have already seen if holes are opening up or if D players are breaking through.
Gotta go with Marist, but I'm hoping for a game like last week's OT thriller at Springfield.
You can still vote in my MWL fan polls
Two other Thursday games.
Churchill at Marshfield. Churchill was the first team ever in the MWL to score three touchdowns against Marist. It isn't likely that Churchill will overlook Marshfield while thinking about playing Willamette the following week. Have to go with Churchill. But, voters, a landslide vote for Churchill? The game is in Coos Bay and Marshfield put up 36 points against Ashland at home two weeks ago.
North Eugene at Eagle Point. Eagle Point will get back on track after the heart breaking OT loss last week. North is glad to have Marist and Ashland behind them.
Friday game.
Springfield at Ashland. Has Springfield's line improved enough to take on explosive Ashland? Which Ashland defense will show up? The one that held Willamette to 12 points or the one that let Mrshfield score 36? I'm going with Ashland. After Marist, Ashland is the next best team at being consistent throughout a game.
Tweet-Tweet
I'll be tweeting the scores out as they occur from the Willamette-Marist game. If you haven't signed up for my tweets and want to get updated over your phone, sign up at my Twitter page.
You can also sign up for the my MWL Facebook page. It's mostly just for football and baseball.
Photos
Eagle Point and Springfield game photos were added after last weeks games. I got a pretty good handle on using flash last week after a botched attempt the week before. It's tricky trying to fire off multiple shots with flash without burning out the flash unit. The pictures are a lot better than the previous weeks effort. Eagle Point Photos. Springfield Photos. List of Photo Pages By Team
I've heard a couple of versions of how 5A teams will be seeded for the playoffs, but I'll go with what is on the OSAA site for now.
- The MWL is in a 'South Region' with the IMC (3 teams) and MWC (8 teams). That's a total of 19 teams in the South Region
- Three teams from the South will not go to the playoffs based on the teams RPI
- No more than two teams from a league will be eliminated. Therefore at least six teams in the MWL will go to the playoffs based on RPI
- 472 - Churchill
- 442 -South Albany
- 425 - Marshfield
- 422 - Dallas
- 420 - North Eugene
Marshfield's RPI should go up after their last game against Marist, win or lose. Marshfield might be able to squeak by South Albany's RPI.
South Albany (0-6) still has to play the three other worst teams in their league. Playing teams with poor records can hurt your RPI. But if South Albany wins one of those games, they might keep their RPI from tanking.
Dallas is in the same situation as South Albany, so Dallas will probably stay in the bottom three unless they win two or three.
North needs to take one of its games against Eagle Point or Springfield. Note that nine teams in the North Region are behind North Eugene in RPI.
How I voted in the OregonLive Poll
1-1 Sherwood
2-2 Marist (Marist picked up another first place vote)
3-3. Corvallis
4-5. Mountain View
5-4. Bend (Bend hosts Mt. View Oct 21)
6-6. Lebanon (Lebanon travels to Corvallis Oct 21)
7-7. West Albany
8-9. Wilsonville
9-8. Ashland
10-12. Crescent Valley (Lost to Corvallis, Lebanon & W Alb)
On my watch list: Willamette, Silverton, Hermiston. Note that Willamette closes out the regular season at Marist and hosting Churchill.
Click to see the entire OregonLive.com polls 5A 6A
MWL Oct 13-14 Predictions
Big game - Willamette at Marist on Thursday.
I like the fact that MWL fans are giving Willamette a chance. Currently, the voting is 62-38 in favor of Marist. That compares to the other three games, where MWL fans give the favorites at least 85 percent of the vote.
I went over this game a lot in yesterday's blog. Willamette can't rely solely on Visarraga. The Wolverines have to be able to go to the air frequently.
The Willamette line will determine the outcome of this game. Can they improve a lot on offense over their game against Ashland when the Grizzlies lived in the Wolverine backfield and held Visarraga to less than 5 yards a carry and pressured Willamette into two interceptions while not yielding a touchdown? I'm guessing Marist's coach Geske will stop the run first and assume his speedy D backs can track down any escaping receivers.
The Willamette D line has to deal with a Marist team that just focused on their running game last week and sprung Greg Park loose for 169 yards on 14 carries. The Wolverines can't like that, after giving up 342 yard on the ground to Ashland three weeks ago.
Spectators - whichever team has the ball, force yourself to watch the guards and tackles for the first second of a play. Plays last about five seconds and you'll be surprised how fast you find the ball after you watch the lineman for a 'one thousand one' count. Plus, you'll already know how successful the play is going to be, because you will have already seen if holes are opening up or if D players are breaking through.
Gotta go with Marist, but I'm hoping for a game like last week's OT thriller at Springfield.
You can still vote in my MWL fan polls
Two other Thursday games.
Churchill at Marshfield. Churchill was the first team ever in the MWL to score three touchdowns against Marist. It isn't likely that Churchill will overlook Marshfield while thinking about playing Willamette the following week. Have to go with Churchill. But, voters, a landslide vote for Churchill? The game is in Coos Bay and Marshfield put up 36 points against Ashland at home two weeks ago.
North Eugene at Eagle Point. Eagle Point will get back on track after the heart breaking OT loss last week. North is glad to have Marist and Ashland behind them.
Friday game.
Springfield at Ashland. Has Springfield's line improved enough to take on explosive Ashland? Which Ashland defense will show up? The one that held Willamette to 12 points or the one that let Mrshfield score 36? I'm going with Ashland. After Marist, Ashland is the next best team at being consistent throughout a game.
Tweet-Tweet
I'll be tweeting the scores out as they occur from the Willamette-Marist game. If you haven't signed up for my tweets and want to get updated over your phone, sign up at my Twitter page.
You can also sign up for the my MWL Facebook page. It's mostly just for football and baseball.
Photos
Eagle Point and Springfield game photos were added after last weeks games. I got a pretty good handle on using flash last week after a botched attempt the week before. It's tricky trying to fire off multiple shots with flash without burning out the flash unit. The pictures are a lot better than the previous weeks effort. Eagle Point Photos. Springfield Photos. List of Photo Pages By Team
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Willamette - Marist is here and Oh, What a Game
Willamette at Marist - It's Here!
I've had this game circled on my calendar since before the season began. After last season ended for Willamette, I thought the Wolverines were in good shape for the 2011 season. The Wolverines had a very good running back returning in Jordan Visarraga, some very good receivers in Mitch Crownover, Zach Hatefi and others and had the tall qb who threw a sweet ball - Kamerun Smith. Then the trade rumors started.
My big concern before teams started playing games was whether or not Willamette could find a qb to replace Smith and whether the Willamette line would develop. Of course, Willamette has found their QB in Dustin Leber. He's completing 58 per cent of his league passes, compared to Smiths 60 percent. But, as good as Willamette's receivers are, they haven't been warp speeding their way to the end zone like Marist's Taylor Walcott and Austin Baird. So Leber is averaging 'just' 186 yards a game through the air, compared to Smith's 247. Leber's feet almost closes the gap with Smith. Leber averages 35 yards a game rushing, while Smith is heading the other way, with a minus 9 yards a game rushing. (Smith almost got back to zero yards rushing after a long, juking run in the Springfield game. The long run brought out a cheer from Marist fans, but the play was called back for holding)
Willamette has the advantage in overall rushing with Visarraga's 940 rushing yards in league, more than the entire Marist team's total of 853. The Wolverines are also getting rushing production from Dante Giles (184 yards) along with Leber's 177 yards. Willamette has 1377 rushing yards as a team in league. Greg Park leads Marist with 494 yards with James Banks next on the Spartan list with 102 yards.
You'd think it would be easy to stop Marist's passing game, the Spartans only throw to three receivers - Walcott, Baird and Josh Paiement. The problem is that they average nearly 20 yards a catch. It would be more, but they tend to run out of field as they cross the end zone too often. Willamette counters with Crownover, Giles, Hatefi, Bryce York and Jordan Edris. Can't call it even in the receiving category due to the speed of Marist, but Willamette can cause problems with more options to throw to.
So, it boils down to the line, as it always does. Willamette's line has a little size advantage, but they'll be battling the strong, conditioned, technique freaks at Marist - Spartans Mitch Olive, Paxton Miller, Eric Hammertimesmith, Tony Ford, Dante Castille, Josh White and crew. The Wolverines counter with Trent Waggoner (baseball player , 6' 0 ', 220 lbs), Mitch Wilkens (6' 5", 245), Tyler Johnson (235), Sam Duncan (6' 3", 210), Lane Henderson (6' 2", 285), Drew Clements and crew. For Willamette to have a chance, each lineman will have to be quick to the punch on every play, and then get the secondary block or continue to pursue on defense. Willamette should hire a motivational speaker to pump up the limemen non-stop before and during the game.
Is Marist getting soft on D? Last year Marist gave up just one first half touchdown during league play and just four league touchdowns in total. This year, Marist has given up 3 first half touchdowns and seven altogether, with two league games to go. Is the Spartan armor getting rusty?
MWL fans are voting for Marist 61 to 39 as of Tuesday afternoon. I thinks that's a good reflection. Marist should be solidly favored, but Willamette can win it if they can focus, fire out and play out each play to the very end. Click to vote in MWL polls. I'm going to this game and I hope it's a good one, just like last week's overtime game at Springfield, speaking of which.
Springfield 35 Eagle Point 34 in Overtime.
The first five weeks of the season I try and see each team at least once. After that I try and choose what I think is going to be a great matchup. I chose right the first time out.
Did you see the article in the Register-Guard about Springfield's head coach, Skip Raish, having a heart attack during the Marshfield game and subsequently not coaching in the Churchill game the next week? Did coach Raish get too excited as the Millers beat the Pirates for a second year in a row, becoming the first ever Springield team to win back to back games against Marshfield? What I want to know is how coach Raish survived the Eagle Point game?
The Millers know how to put on a Friday Night Football Show and homecoming and senior night made this one extra special.
I didn't see any articles that gave any kind of justice to the game. I wish I would have taken notes. Strategically , there wasn't any doubt how this game would be played. Eagle Point would try and ram the ball like they did against Marist and Springfield would go through the air.
So it figures that Eagle Point scores first on a pass. Then they ram it down the field to go up 14-0 in the first quarter. It looked like Springfield was enjoying Homecoming a little too much and didn't show up to play. I'm sure the Miller fans were worried, but you can't stop a good passing team and Springfield scored on a 36 yard Auxier to Banks pass. The Millers quickly got the ball back and looked like they were going to take over the game by passing when Eagle Point's #58, Manny Valdovinos picked Auxier and took off with a big lead on a long run to the end zone.... too long of a run to the end zone for a lineman and a Miller caught Manny and stripped the ball deep in Miller territory, and Springfield recovered. No one was giving up in this game.
Eagle Point went into halftime up 14-7 and it was anybody's game. The Millers scored first in the third quarter on a pass to Taylor Travess. Eagle Point kept ramming the ball with Garrett Snow (27 punishing, clock controlling carries for 149 yards), but it was Jakob Combs who ran it in the final 5 yards to make it 20-14 Eagle Point in the third. It seemed like Eagle Point could ball control this game away if they could get the ball back. But Auxier hit Jon Emerald for a 31 yard td and a 21-20 Miller lead. Eagle Point seemed to fade and momentum shifted to the Millers. Coach Raish and the Miller fans behind him must have been feeling confident when Springfield drove past midfield to the 37 and then lined up to punt and pin Eagle Point deep with less than four minutes to go. So I line up in the Eagle Point end zone to get a photo of the Millers converging on the punt returner, but I never take the photo because Eagle Point blocks the punt and Kyle Zerger takes it in 63 yards for a go ahead TD. Snow runs it for a 2 point conversion and a 28-21 lead. 
I have to think Eagle Point is at a disadvantage in overtime because they don't have the type of passing game that can strike deep if they get stuffed in their running game. Eagle Point goes first and just rams it down Springfield's throat with Snow capping it off with an 8 yard run. But the 2 point conversion attempt gets foiled. Springfield's turn and they can cover ground fast. They do via the air, but it's Auxier who puts it away with his feet on a 5 yard run. Summers has been money all year, and the pressure of overtime doesn't faze him. He kicks it through the goal posts towards the Miller balloon to win the game. The balloon goes wild.Stats
Just a reminder that the stats on the site are for league games only. For a bunch of quarterbacks who didn't have much varsity experience, the qb's are doing a great job. It's pretty rare to have a season where all but one quarterback have more td's than int's. (I don't have stats for North Eugene and Marshfield) Rushing, we have four backs over or near 100 yards per game. Visarraga is almost 200, at 188, Volz has 103, Snow 99.6 and Park 98.8. Air Lancer is in gear after a slow start. Molinski has taken over the league lead in yardage and teammate Andrew Bennion is fourth. Marist has three of the top 7 receivers. Visarraga is off by his little lonesome self with 19 rushing td's and 114 points. Baird is second with 68 points and qb White is third with 50.
Passing Receiving Rushing Scoring
Predictions tomorrow as well as How I voted in the Oct 11 OregonLive poll and how MWL teams are looking as far as playoffs go - not everybody goes to the playoffs this year. (Marist picked up another first place vote in the OregonLive poll, but is still second behind Sherwood. Ashland is alone in 8th)
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Oct 7 Predictions, How I Voted in the OregonLive poll and more
Games I watched last week.
Eagle Point at Marist
Wow. Eagle Point went into halftime down just 7-6 to Marist. I don't think anyone could believe what they were seeing. The Eagles pounded the ball with some huge backs, namely seniors Garrett Snow (6' 1", 225) and Nick Owens (6' 2", 235), who combined for 141 yards on 26 carries for the game. Eagle junior Jakob Combs (5' 9", 180) added 61 yards. Good strategy - pound the ball and keep it out of Marist's hands for as long as possible.
In the meantime, Eagle Point was handling the Marist O, giving up zero yards on the ground, and somehow giving up just one score while Marist's Kamerun Smith was completing 10 of 14 passes in the first half.. The Spartans had lost their explosiveness.
I don't know what Marist's coach Geske's halftime speech was, but it might have been, "We're not going to try and run the ball the rest of the night." Then it was: Smith to Baird for a TD - Eagle fumble to give Marist the ball - Smith to Baird again for a TD - Eagles throw an interception - Smith to Baird for a 70 yd TD - then Smith to Walcott for a 35 yard TD. Obviously, the Spartans found their explosiveness, and the third quarter ended with Marist up 34-6. One more TD for Walcott in the fourth quarter and Josh Paiement collected a 16 yard TD pass before Combs scored the Eagles second TD.
Smith was 23 for 29 and 435 yards passing. 7 of his completions went for touchdowns.
North Eugene at Willamette
This was my first view of Willamette, Visarraga and crew. It was my second look at North Eugene.
Willamette jumped out quickly and went into the lockerroom at half up 35-0. Visarraga gained 168 yards on 21 carries before taking a seat early. Willamette is in the precarious situation this week of overlooking Marshfield when the Pirates visit Willamette. The Wolverines might just be looking at Marshfield's 1-4 season record and thinking, "This'll be a cakewalk, and we can't wait for the Marist game the following week and our old friend Kamerun Smith."
North Eugene dressed fewer than 30 players, with several young men on the sidelines with injury. It's really too bad there aren't more senior Highlanders on the team. North players have very good technique and are fighting each play. But it's tough on the players when there aren't bodies to come in and spell a player once in a while, or cover for an injured player. The good news is that North has a lot of juniors who are good athletes and can bring it. Kevin Haase (baseball player), Ryan Hodges, Dalton Pachano and Johnny Dawason were all over the place in the Willamette game. North has 17 juniors on the roster including starting QB Tyler Knabe. The juniors and a few sophomores are getting a ton of playing time. If they can bring in some more players in next years junior and sophomore classes, North can move up.
Hoo-ray for high school football
My visit to Springfield two weekends ago and to Willmaette last week reminded me of what is so good about high school football. I don't know that anyone else does as good a job as Springfield in putting on a great evening of entertainment. Silke is a great venue starting with the basics, like an easy to find and easy to use concession stand, easy to find restrooms, etc... to it's covered seating. Then there is the almost always state champion cheer team plus the great Miller marching band. Of course, the football players running through the Miller balloon has to be the best intro in the MWL.
Next up for a great MWL spectator experience might be Willamette. How can you beat the Wolverine mascot? (WSU has Butch the Coug, but that's a college) While Willamette doesn't have the best scenic stadium, there's something good about the covered seats and the fact that you can actually see each other in the stands. That's because Willamette has a lot of lights over the spectators, unlike some dark stands where grandma is about to tumble and break her hip because she didn't see a toddler in the stair way. But the best part of a Willamette game has to be the students and cheerleaders doing their line dance. Pure, honest fun.
Oct 7 Predictions
Note that all four league games are in the Eugene-Springfield area this week.
I gambled last week and tried to gain a two game lead on MWL fans in the polls. I picked Springfield over Churchill, while MWL fans picked Churchill. I knew that Springfield hasn't put together stellar defensive outings, but I thought I might sneak one by the MWL fans if Air Lancer couldn't click on O. Fat chance. Churchill always comes together the second half of the season. Lancer QB Mitch Reese could have waited one more game for my sake, but, noooo. Reese completed 17 passes for 315 yards and 4 tds.
Eagle Point at Springfield
I think this one is tougher than MWL fans think. Yes, Springfield is giving up points, but so is Eagle Point. I'm going to this game and I think there's a strong chance that it will be high scoring. Eagle Point will pound the ball and I think the Millers will try the airways. I'll go with home field advantage and Springfield and give MWL fans a chance to go ahead of me. MWL fans are voting for the Eagles by a 2 to 1 margin.
Marshfield at Willamette
Looking for an upset? Look to the Marshfield Pirates. The Pirates have been installing a new offense this year and it looked like money against Ashland last week. The Wolverines are thinking Marist in two weeks. Still, I'm going with the Wolverines.
Marist at Churchill
The Lancer's really clicked last week on offense. Churchill's Mitch Reese is comfortably in second place in league passing yardage and one of his receivers, Tucker Molinski, is in second in receiving yardage.... It will be interesting to see what Marist works on this week on offense after their zero rushing yards in the first half last week against Eagle Point. Marist should be able to handle the Churchill rushing game and the Spartan secondary is too quick for anyone in this league until proven otherwise. Going with Marist.
Ashland at North Eugene
Enjoy this one. Ashland puts an exciting offense on the field and North always tries to pull out all of the stops. Going with Ashland.
You can still vote in the MWL fan polls. Click Here
How I voted in the OregonLive.com poll this week.
My votes followed by the actual poll results for the OregonLive.com 5A poll
1-1. Sherwood
2-2. Marist
3-3. Corvallis
4-4. Mt View
5-5. Bend
6-6. Lebanon
7-7. West Albany
8-T8. Wilsonville
9.-T8 Ashland
10-12. Crescent Valley
Watch List: Willamette, Silverton, Hermiston
Marshfield's Coach Helfrich
Many of you know that Marshfield lost a special coach last month. - Mike Helfrich. This one hit me pretty hard.
I had just seen Mike at the North Eugene game. Mike was one of those people who instantly made you feel great about yourself. What made Mike extra special was that he continued to attend Marshfield events after he retired from coaching, forever encouraging Marshfield youth to improve just by his being present. You could always find him in the northeast bleachers at Hoffine Court with coach Wigle. You could find him anywhere there was a Pirate event. Mike had that old school mix of sending a message that an athlete needs to be really fit and tough, yet players always knew Mike was looking out for the best in his players. They say you can judge a man's character by the company he keeps. Mike was good friends with coach Wigle and another former coach, Bill Lilley. Both Wigle and Lilley shared Mike's ability to instantly make people feel great about themselves. They must have really felt great when it was just the three of them together. Farewell Mike.
Eagle Point at Marist
Wow. Eagle Point went into halftime down just 7-6 to Marist. I don't think anyone could believe what they were seeing. The Eagles pounded the ball with some huge backs, namely seniors Garrett Snow (6' 1", 225) and Nick Owens (6' 2", 235), who combined for 141 yards on 26 carries for the game. Eagle junior Jakob Combs (5' 9", 180) added 61 yards. Good strategy - pound the ball and keep it out of Marist's hands for as long as possible.
In the meantime, Eagle Point was handling the Marist O, giving up zero yards on the ground, and somehow giving up just one score while Marist's Kamerun Smith was completing 10 of 14 passes in the first half.. The Spartans had lost their explosiveness.
I don't know what Marist's coach Geske's halftime speech was, but it might have been, "We're not going to try and run the ball the rest of the night." Then it was: Smith to Baird for a TD - Eagle fumble to give Marist the ball - Smith to Baird again for a TD - Eagles throw an interception - Smith to Baird for a 70 yd TD - then Smith to Walcott for a 35 yard TD. Obviously, the Spartans found their explosiveness, and the third quarter ended with Marist up 34-6. One more TD for Walcott in the fourth quarter and Josh Paiement collected a 16 yard TD pass before Combs scored the Eagles second TD.
Smith was 23 for 29 and 435 yards passing. 7 of his completions went for touchdowns.
North Eugene at Willamette
This was my first view of Willamette, Visarraga and crew. It was my second look at North Eugene.
Willamette jumped out quickly and went into the lockerroom at half up 35-0. Visarraga gained 168 yards on 21 carries before taking a seat early. Willamette is in the precarious situation this week of overlooking Marshfield when the Pirates visit Willamette. The Wolverines might just be looking at Marshfield's 1-4 season record and thinking, "This'll be a cakewalk, and we can't wait for the Marist game the following week and our old friend Kamerun Smith."
North Eugene dressed fewer than 30 players, with several young men on the sidelines with injury. It's really too bad there aren't more senior Highlanders on the team. North players have very good technique and are fighting each play. But it's tough on the players when there aren't bodies to come in and spell a player once in a while, or cover for an injured player. The good news is that North has a lot of juniors who are good athletes and can bring it. Kevin Haase (baseball player), Ryan Hodges, Dalton Pachano and Johnny Dawason were all over the place in the Willamette game. North has 17 juniors on the roster including starting QB Tyler Knabe. The juniors and a few sophomores are getting a ton of playing time. If they can bring in some more players in next years junior and sophomore classes, North can move up.
Hoo-ray for high school football
My visit to Springfield two weekends ago and to Willmaette last week reminded me of what is so good about high school football. I don't know that anyone else does as good a job as Springfield in putting on a great evening of entertainment. Silke is a great venue starting with the basics, like an easy to find and easy to use concession stand, easy to find restrooms, etc... to it's covered seating. Then there is the almost always state champion cheer team plus the great Miller marching band. Of course, the football players running through the Miller balloon has to be the best intro in the MWL.
Next up for a great MWL spectator experience might be Willamette. How can you beat the Wolverine mascot? (WSU has Butch the Coug, but that's a college) While Willamette doesn't have the best scenic stadium, there's something good about the covered seats and the fact that you can actually see each other in the stands. That's because Willamette has a lot of lights over the spectators, unlike some dark stands where grandma is about to tumble and break her hip because she didn't see a toddler in the stair way. But the best part of a Willamette game has to be the students and cheerleaders doing their line dance. Pure, honest fun.
Oct 7 Predictions
Note that all four league games are in the Eugene-Springfield area this week.
I gambled last week and tried to gain a two game lead on MWL fans in the polls. I picked Springfield over Churchill, while MWL fans picked Churchill. I knew that Springfield hasn't put together stellar defensive outings, but I thought I might sneak one by the MWL fans if Air Lancer couldn't click on O. Fat chance. Churchill always comes together the second half of the season. Lancer QB Mitch Reese could have waited one more game for my sake, but, noooo. Reese completed 17 passes for 315 yards and 4 tds.
Eagle Point at Springfield
I think this one is tougher than MWL fans think. Yes, Springfield is giving up points, but so is Eagle Point. I'm going to this game and I think there's a strong chance that it will be high scoring. Eagle Point will pound the ball and I think the Millers will try the airways. I'll go with home field advantage and Springfield and give MWL fans a chance to go ahead of me. MWL fans are voting for the Eagles by a 2 to 1 margin.
Marshfield at Willamette
Looking for an upset? Look to the Marshfield Pirates. The Pirates have been installing a new offense this year and it looked like money against Ashland last week. The Wolverines are thinking Marist in two weeks. Still, I'm going with the Wolverines.
Marist at Churchill
The Lancer's really clicked last week on offense. Churchill's Mitch Reese is comfortably in second place in league passing yardage and one of his receivers, Tucker Molinski, is in second in receiving yardage.... It will be interesting to see what Marist works on this week on offense after their zero rushing yards in the first half last week against Eagle Point. Marist should be able to handle the Churchill rushing game and the Spartan secondary is too quick for anyone in this league until proven otherwise. Going with Marist.
Ashland at North Eugene
Enjoy this one. Ashland puts an exciting offense on the field and North always tries to pull out all of the stops. Going with Ashland.
You can still vote in the MWL fan polls. Click Here
How I voted in the OregonLive.com poll this week.
My votes followed by the actual poll results for the OregonLive.com 5A poll
1-1. Sherwood
2-2. Marist
3-3. Corvallis
4-4. Mt View
5-5. Bend
6-6. Lebanon
7-7. West Albany
8-T8. Wilsonville
9.-T8 Ashland
10-12. Crescent Valley
Watch List: Willamette, Silverton, Hermiston
Marshfield's Coach Helfrich
Many of you know that Marshfield lost a special coach last month. - Mike Helfrich. This one hit me pretty hard.
I had just seen Mike at the North Eugene game. Mike was one of those people who instantly made you feel great about yourself. What made Mike extra special was that he continued to attend Marshfield events after he retired from coaching, forever encouraging Marshfield youth to improve just by his being present. You could always find him in the northeast bleachers at Hoffine Court with coach Wigle. You could find him anywhere there was a Pirate event. Mike had that old school mix of sending a message that an athlete needs to be really fit and tough, yet players always knew Mike was looking out for the best in his players. They say you can judge a man's character by the company he keeps. Mike was good friends with coach Wigle and another former coach, Bill Lilley. Both Wigle and Lilley shared Mike's ability to instantly make people feel great about themselves. They must have really felt great when it was just the three of them together. Farewell Mike.
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