Marist-Sherwood. Oh, so close!

The words Coach Geske spoke to me last August came back to me when Taylor Walcott left the game in the second quarter.  I had just finished watching a practice and weight room workout on a hot August day.  When I left the weight room, I knew that no team in the MWL was going to touch Marist.  Then I watched them practice on the field, and I knew they were in late season form already.

Coach Geske knew he had a special group.  His words were "We have the talent and work ethic to make it to the finals, but we're not very deep." 

Walcott joins Park on injury list.

So when Walcott joined running back Greg Park on the sideline I figured it was lights out for Marist.  Marist had been playing without Park for several playoff games.  And while Logan Silver has been spectacular on the ground during the playoffs, it was getting more and more evident, playoff quarter by playoff quarter, that Marist was going to ride Silver's legs and arm all the way. 

Walcott's departure cut Silvers's passing options from three great receivers (Walcott, Baird and Paiement) to two.  And Walcott was the one with the most speed.    That added even more pressure on Silver's running game.  I was also expecting a Steven Long explosion in the second half, as Walcott was the only Spartan able to catch  Long on those 40 and 50 yard breakaways.

Spartans Rise to the Challenge.

Marist had obviously been in a personnel jam before.  Starting with the first game of 2009 and recovering nicely.  Then the first game of 2010.  Then the Park injury in the playoffs.  But none of the opponents were Sherwood.  Nevertheless, when Sherwood should have been exploding by Marist, the opposite happened.  Marist dug itself out of a 16-3 fourth quarter hole, to tie it up 16-16 with 7:00 minutes to go.  The game had finally turned into the match everyone expected.  The hitting on the field was incredibly hard. 

Sherwood responded with an 86 yard drive, led by Michael Balfour and Steven Long to go  up 23-16 with just 3:15 left on the clock.  Marist wasn't going to let it get away that easy and marched 81 yards to tie the game.  Sherwood penalties and three passes to Baird and one to Josh Harper were the keys to Marists drive to tie the game at 0:27.  Believe it or not, both teams had a shot at the end zone in the final 27 seconds.

Final Thoughts

I have to acknowledge the efforts of each and every Spartan after Walcott left the game.  The mountain looked huge at the beginning of the fourth quarter, and Marist was playing without the fastest man on the field for either team.  I don't know that many teams could have manned up like Marist did.

We'll never know if Marist would have been state champs with Park and Walcott in the final.  You can't judge by the way this game was played.  Sherwood would have planned differently for Park, whose presence would have taken a ton of pressure off of Silver.  But we do know that the Marist players can live the rest of their lives knowing, not just believing, that each individual is very important and will come through as needed when the going gets tough if you've worked hard and prepared as a team.

Interesting Game Tidbits

• Some OregonLive.com forum members said the game was the best high school football game they've ever seen.  I loved the fourth quarter, but the first three were torture.  All those penalties on both teams.  Yikes.  Neither team could get into the flow of their offense.  
• The Sherwood crowd was booing the officiating crew relentlessly.  But it was clear the Sherwood players couldn't handle the Marist D line and linebackers.  An old midwest college philosophy from the 70's is to keep on holding if you are an explosive running team.  So what if you lose ten yards for holding after you've gained five or ten?  You get the down over.  And eventually the officials get tired of calling the penalties and they aren't going to see all of them anyway.  
• Hats off to Sherwood's pass D.  That was the difference in the game.  Great job by the Sherwood D line.  Silver's passing efficiency was 56 for the game.  His prior low was 96 and that was early in the season when he was starting the switch from running back to quarterback.  
• The hitting in the game was hard and constant from whistle to whistle.  It was hard to get into the game as a fan because of the 28 penalties, but when I looked at my photos when I got home, I was happy to see that players on both sides were just hammering each other every play.  Two great teams with players who went hard every play and didn't stop til the whistle.
• The flags on the flag poles at both ends of the field were being blown hard in opposite directions. Early in the  first quarter Sherwood's long snapper hiked the ball way over the punters head. The punter chased it down, kept his cool, and pooch kicked it just to get a few yards back. But instead of a short punt, the ball rode the 30 knot updraft towards Old Glory at the west end of the field, then the ball was blown all the way to the Marist 4. A 50 yard punt, but actually much longer because the punter had to run back a long way to get the ball.  Later, with 32 seconds left in the second quarter Sherwood kicked a 39 yard field goal towards the State of Oregon flag in the east end zone.  It would have been good from 60 as the wind was howling towards the west at that end of the stadium. 
• After not scoring a touchdown the first three quarters, Marist scored on three straight drives in the fourth quarter. (I had these plays in the wrong order in my original post)
• Sherwood's fans sure were fun.  (Okay, I wouldn't give them a passing grade for sportsmanship because of their treatment of the officials)  They seemed to have a family there for each of the 1278 students in their school and they knew how to make some noise.  I loved their cheers and overall loud and noisy support of their team, including the 'Booooooo' when the leading tackler for both teams, Trent Duppenthaler had his name called.  Actually, it was a 'Dooooo'. (Update to blog.  Someone texted me and said it was pronounced 'Duuuuppe'.  Good enough for me)

On to baseball.

That's about it for this year.  I'll take a few months off and get ready for baseball.  I will post all state players when they are printed and I'll probably make some wild MWL prediction for next fall before I start the conversion to baseball.

Good Luck to all of the seniors.  Marist guys, take off the next nine months.  The rest of you, get back in the weight room.  Close the gap on those Spartans!
Gary

State Finals - Marist or Sherwood

Finally, we get to the game everyone has been waiting for since before the season started.  Yes, both teams are that much better than everyone else. 

• Both teams strong recent history
• Marist won state '03, '05, '07, '09
• Sherwood 2 finals, 1 semi, 2 quarters since '04
• Both teams loaded with seniors
• Sherwood has 23
• Marist has 19
• Many seniors on both teams had significant playing time in playoffs last year
• "Bigger, Faster, Stronger" isn't just a cliche to these teams.  If you've team has played them, you know.
• Fast paced, wear you down offenses.
• Sherwood's hard to read, hard to stay on your assignment 'Wing'
• All world Sherwood backs.  Cannonball 6'0", 220 lb Michael Balfour is good for 10.8 yards per carry.  Perhaps even more dangerous is 5'7"
• Steven Long, who is good for 11.4 YPC. 
• There are several other backs with huge yardage, but keep your eye on rising star sophomore Cristian Morris.  He had around 100 yards against Ashland and Jefferson in the playoffs. 
• Marist's 'Where is Logan now?  Oh, no! He passed it." offense
• The ball handlers get the glory, but they would be nowhere without their killer O lines.
• Watch Sherwoods pulling linemen and notice when their linemen go in the opposite direction as the carrier.  That's USC stuff.  (Hopefully, this year's USC) Hard to read that kind of blocking.
• Marist's entire line was all league:  Seniors Matthew Devereux (league MVP), Logan Mayes (league D MVP) and center Chris Bender.  Juniors Mitch Olive and Paxton Miller.  All league receivers Taylor Walcott, Austin Baird and Josh Paiement can thank these linemen for giving Logan Silver time to pass.  They can thank Logan, too, for his scrambling.
• Both teams have stellar Defenses.
• Sherwood has held Ashland to 14, Jefferson to 13 and Mt. View to 22 in the playoffs.
• Marist traveled an easier road in the playoffs.  Still they only gave up 6, 7 and 22 points. 
• Devereux, Miller and another all leaguer, senior Kevin Haskin anchor the Spartan D line.  Mayes, officially a linebacker, moves position often, playing the edges a lot and messing up the qb.  A ton will ride on LB Will Swindling.  Teams have tested his side to side skills a lot - to no avail. Swindling was an all leaguer along with the third linebacker, senior Carson Keiswetter.  You should hear the DB's names called a lot when Sherwood goes to the air.  Seniors Ryan Inouye, Matt Beattie, Brady Chionbian and Riley Kulm were all all-league.  All season long I thought those DB names were pretty cool to pronounce.   
• Both teams have incredible coaching.  I don't think either team will win because the coaches were outcoached or because the coaches didn't motivate their team.  Geske and Sherwood coach Greg Lawrence have been in the playoffs far too often to not have their teams ready.
• Motivation
• Sherwood's 23 seniors have been marching steadily to a state title.  As sophomores they lost in the quarterfinals.  As juniors, they lost in the semifinals to Jefferson, 23-26. Now they are in the finals.
• Marist's 19 seniors have something to prove.  After last year's undefeated state title, the thinking was that Marist had an incredible senior class and a very strong junior class.  The combination was unstoppable.  The 2010 Marist version was going to have a few superstars, but the team probably wasn't deep enough to take it all.  We'll find out this Saturday and maybe next year we''ll be saying, "That 2010 team had a bunch of senior studs and the junior class was really strong, but they can't repeat it again."

The game

Sherwood has been ranked number one all year.  The thinking goes like this:

1) Sherwood runs the wing offense with such power, precision and misdirection that it is impossible to stop. Lining up in the wing formation basically gives a team 9 blockers, with one of the running/blocking backs in motion building up steam.  Sherwood's backs are fantastic blockers.

2) Running backs Balfour and Long are super-duper-fantastic. And they are.  Balfour pounds and Long jukes and puts on the jets.  Sherwoods' other backs would be star running backs on most teams.

3) Defensive ends will eventually crash down on the qb too much, and Sherwood will rip off a 40 yard cutback run; or the linebackers and db's will creep up over time and Sherwood's qb Jordan Ramp will pass the ball to Long or another all alone receiver for a long gainer.

4) Sherwood's defense is excellent.

Sherwood fans have to be thinking this is the year.  Looking at Marist's stats, it is easy to conclude that all a team has to do to beat Marist is to stop Silver.

Here's what I'm thinking.

Sherwood's offense is truly fantastic.  Mt. View had a good handle on Sherwood and still gave up 42 points.  Marist's front three (or four) will be able to stuff the run often.  But I don't think that high school players can go an entire game being disciplined enough to play their assignment or avoid chasing the quarterback from the backside and opening up their gap for the 10 yard gains.  I can still envision good college players chasing Dennis Dixon too far, only to have Dixon cut some other way or hand the ball off to a back heading right to where the lineman/LB had just left and opened up a hole.

But so is Marist's offense truly fantastic.  If you watched the Mountain View - Sherwood game, you might have noticed that Mountain View had a lot of opportunities to convert mid to long passes, but just didn't connect.  You expect a qb-receiver combo to go an entire game with a few drops, but Mountain View had far too many missed chances.   Mountain View's unconverted opportunities through the air give me hope that Marist can pass the ball.  Passing the ball successfully opens the running game for Marist.

My biggest concern for Marist is if the three defensive down linemen can last the entire game against Sherwood's line.  All three players go both ways most of the time.  I'm hoping they realize it's their last game this year and they don't have to save anything.

 My thinking brain says Sherwood should win this in a close one with both teams breaking down the other team's defense.  I don't think either team should climb into the 40 point range because both teams should have several scoring drives, thus keeping the score balanced.  39-35 wouldn't surprise me.

But I'm going with Marist.  I've seen coach Geske make a lot of adjustments this year.  From losing Paiement at qb, to getting Paiement back as a receiver, to losing Greg Park for the playoffs. I don't recall seeing much trickery on offense or fancy stuff on special teams.  Maybe we'll see something if it's tight.  Who knows?  I just know for sure that these are the two best 5A teams in Oregon who are going to go at each other in different fashions.  It's going to be fun!!!

Any Duck or Beaver fans out there?  Or soon to be Coug fans?

If you are a sports news junkie, here's a new site for you to get updates about your team all day long.  The site posts tons of articles from various newspapers and websites.  It's pretty wild this week with the Civil War and Apple Cup.  You can even have the links Tweeted to  you.

Oregon Duck Football
Oregon State Beaver Football
Washington State Football

Go Ducks!  Go Cougs!  Go Spartans!!!!!!

Marist vs Crescent Valley

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Should Marist beat Crescent Valley?  Yes.

Could Crescent Valley beat Marist? Yes.  Of course, a lot needs to go Crescent Valley's way. 

Crescent Vally does one thing on offense and they do it well.  They run the ball.  They are on the ground 71% of the time.  Over half of the carries by the Raiders have been by 5' 7", 180 lb senior Andrew Oglesby.  He's been good for over 1,500 yards on the ground.  And no one else on the team is close to those numbers.

The passing game, such that it is, has produced 12 touchdowns against 5 interceptions out of junior quarterback Chase Cochran.  All-World freshman, 6' 4" Tanner Sanders, has a third of the Raiders catches and a third of their yards through the air.  Sanders is the real deal.  He's a big yardage receiver.

So, what's to like about the Crescent Valley offense?  When a team focuses on one thing they can do it very, very well.  If the Raiders can be successful with the run against Marist, they can control the clock and keep the Marist scoring machine off the field.  If the Raiders can run, Marist better not get out of the blocks slowly like they did last week (first td excepted) against Lebanon.  You don't want to get behind against a team that is successful on the ground and can control the clock and time of possession.  I also like the fact that they have the frosh Sanders to go to through the air in the event the ground game isn't effective or if Marist starts overplaying the run.  I'm expecting to see the tall Sanders in the middle secondary of Marist's D.

Crescent Vally has been an on/off team on defense.  They've held eight of their opponents to two touchdowns or less. On the other hand, they've given up four to five touchdowns to four opponents.  Nothing in between.  The Raider defense is led by 6' 0", 215 lb senior linebacker Kyle Garnder.  Garner is an animal with over 11 tackles per game.  Does Marist game plan to run away from him, take him on or try and confuse him with misdirection?  I'm guessing that the Spartans will work away from him.

I think Marist's offense and defense are too quick for the Raiders.  It's going to be another slugfest in the trenches this week, but I don't think Crescent Vally has the wheels to get around the corner and the Marist linebackers and db's won't allow the big breakaway up the middle. I also think that Crescent Valley will eventually have to go to the frosh Sanders through the air.  Sanders is likely to have some success against the shorter Spartans, but if the Raiders have to go to the air a lot, they are also looking at some picks.

So should Marist win it? Yes.  Could Crescent Valley upset the Spartans?  Yes.  A consistent grinding ground game and a few long passes to Sanders and the Raiders are in the game.  Hopefully, Marist comes out fired up at the start of the Crescent Valley game like they did in the second half against Lebanon.  It was okay to come out and be methodical in execution during league, but they need to use that intensity we saw in the second half last week if the Spartans want to make it to the finals.

MWL Alums in college and pros

I put out a call for former mwl players who went on to play football in college and pro ball.  It looks like at least 5 Spartans are currently playing college ball.  They are playing for Boise State, Oregon, Oregon State, Montana State and Portland State.  Churchill has at least two. Both at Oregon.  Let me know if I'm missing any.  And it's okay to go back in time.  I usually do my college and pro page maintenance in the off season, so the timing to gather the info is perfect.  I'll set up a section for Ashland and Eagle Point if I get some info.   College player link.  Pro Player link.

Current poll.

The fan voting poll currently shows 69% of fans think Marist is going to win and 80% think Sherwood is going to win. 

Happy Thanksgiving.  I just found out that by brother is bringing three guests from France to Thanksgiving dinner.  And they are staying over night Thursday.  My wife didn't faint!

Marist - C Valley and Lebanon, Air Lancer

Last week I wrote that Lebanon might be having dreams about the possibility of beating Marist.  At the game, I barely had time to put on my gloves to warm my freezing hands, when Silver hit Walcott on a 62 yard td bomb.  Then;

• Lebanon ate up six and a half minutes on thier first series, but missed a field goal. 
• Marist scored quickly and I thought the Lebanon dream was going to be a nightmare.  
• But Lebanon came on strong and pulled within 14-6 early in the second quarter.
• Marist answered quickly, to go up 20-6 with ten minutes left in the second quarter. 
• However, Lebanon then outplayed Marist the rest of the quarter, but stalled out deep in Marist territory right before the half.  After three incomplete passes from the 8, Lebanon attempted a short field goal, but missed.  

Even though Lebanon was down 20-6 at half, they had exploited the Spartan secondary and had a good running combo going in qb Duerr and rb Privatsky.  If they had made their field goals, it would have been 20-12.  I didn't like the way Lebanon was playing their 3-4 D, but it was working.  I thought the Lebanon linebackers were playing way too deep, which would open the door for Marist's running game. On the other hand, Lebanon picked Silver in the first half, which is a rarity.

Second half adjustments.  For the first time all year, Marist ran onto the field like wild banshees.  Marist inserted Walcott into the defensive secondary and was rewarded with a Walcott pick on the first Lebanon series.  Marist's D line picked it up a level or three. Mayes was particularly impressive.  No mercy for Duerr, the Warrior qb. Eventually he was knocked out of the game for a couple of possessions.  Game over.  Marist scored 21 points in the third quarter.

My mind was thinking it was funny watching Lebanon try to go side to side so much.  Trying the corner a few times is okay, but after you've been repeatedly held to no gains or losses, try something else.  It looked like Lebanon was giving Marist's Will Swindling a SPARQ's side to side shuttle test for 48 minutes.  He passed every time.

Coach Greske showed a couple of things for the scouts to think about:

• Chiongbian took two handoffs, his only two carries of the game, to the endzone.  Last week, Silver was the only rusher while the first string was in.
• Going for the jugular with the 62 yd td pass to Walcott on the second play of the game has to go into a scout notebook.  The notebook entry should say "No time to get the feel of the opponent".

Two coolest plays of the game.  A scramblerooskie by Silver on 4th and 12 early in the second quarter.  Silver juked and jived to buy enough time for Paiement to get open for an 18 yard pass.  The other coolest play was a catch by Austin Baird going out of bounds late in the second quarter.  It would have been a highlight reel catch - 45 yards through the air from Silver, Baird tight roping the sidelines, adjusting to the ball in flight, fully laying out, ignoring the defender's bump, and catching the ball before crash landing..... out of  bounds. Darn.   Okay, Mayes pounding the qb over and over was great, but something about the crunch factor disqualifies the hits from being the 'coolest'.  Need another term for crunching qbs.

The reality of the game was that Lebanon was the three seed from their conference.  You've got to be in the elite category to play with Marist.

Crescent Valley.  A 6'4", 185 pound freshman wide receiver,Tanner Sanders, is why the Raiders are still in the playoffs. He caught a key pass in a play-in game that put CV into the lead late in the game against The Dalles-Wahtonka.  I mention this so you'll remember his name in basketball season and to remind you that CV can pass the ball, even though they run far more often then they pass.

While not a statewide elite team like Sherwood, Marist, Mountain View, Jefferson and Wilsonville, Crescent Valley is from the smash mouth Mid-Willamette league that includes Lebanon.  They'll be deeper in personnel, talent and size than Lebanon.  EArlier I noted that had Lebanon made their first half field goals, they would have been in a 20-12 game at halftime. Crescent Valley should be better than that.  Also, keep in mind that Crescent Valley scored 63 points against Churchill last week on a sloppy field.  That's a lot of points.

Will Churchill fans be rooting for Crescent Valley?

Churchill alum Tim Euhus is the offensive coordinator for CV.  That sets up a match up of former NFL player Euhus against former Portland State assistant coach Frank Geske. Let me think.... NFL versus college.  Does Geske have a chance?

Churchill's Great Season

I'm a dinosaur.  My bones tell me that football should be played on grass.  Or mud, if it rains.  When I played ball, passing was almost cheating.  Passing was definitely not macho.  The trenches were where it was at.  But I've had a receiver and qb in my family this decade and I sure like the excitement of the big play through the air.  So I was sad to see the Churchill - CV game played on grass, in sloppy conditions.  In the year 1999, I watched my Sheldon boys lose one in soup at Jefferson.  Passing was impossible.  Fortunately, the next year was when Sheldon and the 4j schools put in artificial turf.  That led to a state quarterfinal, then a state runner up and the next year a championship.

Churchill cut a 20-29 halftime deficit to 27-29 46 seconds into the second half on a Godfrey to Savelich 68 yarder.  Godfrey threw for 286 yards and two tds.   Ingram ran for 199 yards and 4 tds.  A good finish for these seniors.  Remember Tanner Sanders, the Crescent Valley freshman I mentioned earlier for his efforts against the Dalles-Wahtonka?  Against Churchill, he caught a td pass off of a fake field goal attempt and intercepted a pass for a 44 yd pick six.  Marist fans should get ready for Sanders, running back Andre Oglesby and qb Chase Cochran.  They torched Marshfield with 44 points and Churchill with 63 points.  As good as Oglesby is, I don't think he has the speed to get by the Marist linebackers.

Baseball 


Baseball?  A lot of people are probably moving on to other sports or graduation.   But before you move on, please let me know if any of your football players are also baseball players.  I maintain a baseball site, too.  Ashland and Eagle Point won't be in the MWL league for baseball, but I still want to track their baseball players.  I'm not familiar with Eagle Point baseball, but Ashland's qb Jake Scarmanich and Brady Thomas played in the state championship game against North Eugene.  Any Eagle football players projected to play baseball?  Email me at mwlnow@yahoom.com.

Pros in NFL/CFL football

Does your team have any former players who went onto the NFL or CFL?  Let me know if I don't have them on my list.  I think Chad Cota was from Ashland?  Anyway, let me know.  Here's what I have in my initial attempt MWL players in the NFL/CFL

MWL alums playing football in college

I also maintain a list of players who have gone on to play college ball.  I try to keep it to D-I players, but we can fudge a little.  MWL alums who played in college Go back in time as far as you can.  I keep this information because when my kids played at Sheldon, most players didn't know that three former Sheldon players had played in a Super Bowl, much less played in college.  If a Cottage Grove, North Bend or Junction city alum is reading this, let me know if  you've had any college/pro players.  You were in the MWL at one time.

Search

There are search engines in the football and baseball websites.  They are not your regular google search.  They are are targeted so you can find MWL alums/coaches on the MWL website.  Type in the name of the MWL person you want to search for and the search engine will find all of the entries on the MWL website.  If I'm missing someone, let  me know.

Nearing the end of season


Thanks for your support.  I really appreciate your positive comments.  Your comments and purchases of photos help me convince my wife that I should spend too much time maintaining the MWL website.  I also appreciate your critical comments.  They help me reconsider what my wandering mind has been writing.

Warriors dreaming of upsetting Spartans? & How 'bout them Lancers?

Most scouts who watch Marist probably go back to their team's head coach with advice to stock up the first aid kit.  But I have to believe that the Lebanon Warrior scouts went home thinking they have an opportunity.

The scouts and spectators watched Logan Silver get his first 300 yard rushing game against Parkrose.  Silver ended the day with 365 yards on 30 carries.  Yikes, that's over 12 yards per carry.  Silver also completed 10 passes for 90 yards.  Four of his completions were for TD's.  So why would the  Lebanon scouts think they have a chance after watching the undefeated Spartans (10-0) win their eighth straight game by at least 40  points?

Well, Lebanon plays in a league that primarily runs the ball.  And they watched Marist put the ball in the hands of just one guy all night and told him to run.  The scouts have to be thinking, "There's only one ball carrier to follow without Greg Park in the backfield.  We play in a league that runs the ball.  We know how to stop the run.  We stop Silver, we can win."

I also have to believe they saw something to work with in Parkrose's defensive scheme.  Parkrose kept Marist out of the end zone on two early red zone penetrations.  Parkrose set up three down lineman in wide gaps and let the linebackers fill the holes.  I thought Parkrose had a good plan, but it looked like that was their only plan.  When a team runs the same set on defense over and over, it is easy to figure out a way to defeat the scheme.

I also think Lebanon will be in better shape than Parkrose.  A couple of Marist fans made some pre-game comments about how 'big' Parkrose was.  My response was, "We'll see how 'big' they are after the first quarter, when they've chased Marist around the field."  The Parkrose guys got smaller as they ran out of gas and couldn't move far enough or fast enough to cover the ground needed to keep up with Marist.

Bottom line is that I think Lebanon has the potential to make the upcoming quarterfinal game a real match.  They should be athletic enough to execute a scheme to stop Silver from running wild.  But Marist ran Silver a lot because that's what Parkrose gave Marist.  The week before, when Greg Park left the game against Eagle Point in the first half, Marist lit it up through the air in the second half, including two touchdowns over 29 yards.

Churchill (#17 RPI) bounces Wilsonville (#2 RPI, #5 OregonLive Poll)

Early in the year, I said I loved Air Lancer and they make me laugh because the Lancer's make no effort to disguise what they are going to do.  The just send out the receivers and throw.  The receivers get the glory, but it's unrecognized QB Derek Godfrey who makes this year's version of Air Lancer work.  Godfrey has thrown ten td passes in his last four games, including six in the playoffs.  The Lancer's air game is set up via the pounding of the ball by junior running back Aaron Ingram, who averages around 100 yards a game and  over 5 yards a carry.

The Wilsonville Upset.  What's that old saying?  "Success comes when preparation meets opportunity."  That describes Churchill's win over Wilsonville, who was #2 in the RPI and #5 in the final OregonLive poll.  I mentioned in last week's blog that I thought Churchill had a good shot at upsetting Wilsonville.  Wilsonville's defense has been suspect and while Wilsonville was a high scoring  team, they hadn't been overwhelming some mediocre to weak teams the last several weeks of the regular season and the play-in game.

Those two reason's were enough for me to think upset for the high octane Lancers.  Then Opportunity raised its head even further when Wilsonville's leading tackler and second leading scorer was injured and ruled out for the Churchill game due to a serious injury incurred during the play-in game.  Still, Wilsonville was ranked ahead of Marist in the RPI.  Does anyone think Marist would lose to Churchill if Marist lost their leading tackler?

So Churchill drove to Wilsonville where Preparation met Opportunity.  Little did anyone know, but Churchill also had a giant dose of Coolness Under Pressure in their Preparedness plan.

If you missed it, here's how it went:

• Churchill    14-0  midway thru 1st. 2 TD passes
• Wilsonville 14-14   with 12 seconds left in 1st.

• Wilsonville  21-14   early in 2nd quarter.
• Wilsonville  21-17  Chill quickly scores field goal.
• Wilsonville  28-17  at half. WV 24 yd rush TD.       

• Wilsonville  28-24.  Chill's Moore 14 run early in 3rd.
• Churchill      30-28   Determan 32 td catch 14 seconds after Moore's td in 3rd q.

• Wilsonville   34-30 Td with 10 minutes to go
• Wilsonville   41-30 Td 6 minutes to go. Uh-Oh
• Wilsonville   41-36 Churchill's Ingram 1 yd run with 4:48 to go
• Churchill      42-41 Godfrey to Savelich 31 yds 2:15 left in game.  2 pt conversion failed.

I got drained just reading the scoring summary.  I haven't seen a well written article about the game yet.  I'll let you know if I do.  There must have been some  key turnovers, as Churchill scored touchdowns back to back within 30 seconds - TWICE!

Crescent Valley is the quarterfinal opponent for Churchill.  Crescent Valley lost the Mid-Willamette title by 1 point to Corvallis in a week 2 game at Corvallis.  Once again I like the Lancer's chances. However, Crescent Valley's run game is cause for concern.  The Raiders run the ball 70% of the time.   They don't break the long ones, they just grind it and control the clock.  I think this game will be won or lost by Churchill's D line and linebackers.  If they can get the ball back into the hands of the Churchill O, I believe Air Lancer will score.  If the Raiders just control the clock and grind it out, it'll be tough for Churchill to get the air show going.

It looks like it's going to rain Friday, so I'll be leaving my camera at home and watching the Marist-Lebanon game from the stands.  I like an occasional game in the stands.  I get a much better feel for what the coaches are trying to accomplish when I sit in the stands, compared to when I am looking through the camera eyepiece.

Marist over Eagles - what you didn't read & RPI stuff

Marist over Eagle Point

Steve Mims article in The Register-Guard captured the highlights of the game.  Logan Silver throwing for 5 td's.  Receivers Walcott and Baird going wild. Marist recovered three fumbles and had two picks. And coach Geske saying Marist needs to clean things up on O and D. 

Some items you didn't read about. 

• Running back Greg Park scored early in the game, but left the game during the first half and came out on crutches after halftime..... 
• Marist punter Colton Bowden had two key punts in the game.  The first gem was a 50 yarder from his endzone.  The second was a kick from the Eagle Point side of the field that Bowden neatly punched down the left sideline, pinning the Eagles deep rather than giving the Eagles the ball on the 20 by kicking through the end zone. Little things make a great team.....
• Eagle Point racked up a lot of rushing yardage, mostly on quarterback Shane Bluhm's 161 yards on 14 carries.  Most of the yardage was on an 80 yarder that displayed Bluhm's speed.  That still leaves 81 yards on 13 carries, a 6.2 average for those 13 carries.  That's not a good sign if Marist should eventually meet Sherwood.  Sherwood averages 9.6 yards per carry!!!!....
• Silver's passing stats were impressive, but seeing him in person, he was more impressive than typical gawdy high school stats.  I've seen Marist three times this season.  Silver was throwing darts when he needed to and he was hitting his deep receivers in stride.  But his best pass might have been a second half pass when he threw a pass with just enough loft to get over the linebackers and yet dropped in on his receiver and not into the DB's hands.
• Silver's fielding was excellent.  He scooped up several mis-snaps and either prevented the turnover or made something out of the play.  Silver was a first team all league baseballer last spring.  (Can't wait til baseball.  There are a ton of good players locally.)
• Coach Geske said his Spartans were outhit.  I don't know if it was because I was up in the stands rather than on the sidelines, but I did feel that there wasn't the intensity I saw in the other two Marist games I attended. Even some of the Marist fans around me were mentioning that they thought the Spartans were out of tune and lacking intensity.  I said I agreed, but pointed out that the scoreboard said 30-6 during halftime.
• Had the Eagles passing game clicked, Marist might have been under some pressure.  Eagle Point had a lot of wide open receivers and a lot of time to pass.  But often times when Bluhm hit his receivers, they dropped the ball.  And on other times the receiver was open and the ball was off just a little. 

Round of 16

Marist hosts Parkrose
Ashland travels to Sherwood
Churchill travels to Wilsonville

Marist, Sherwood and Wilsonville are three of the four elite teams this year.  Mountain View is the fourth. Jefferson always is ranked high, but they just aren't consistent enough to make it to the top of the mountain.  (Although, Jeff made it to the finals last year.)  In theory, Marist will crush Parkrose, Sherwood will crush Ashland and Wilsonville will crush Churchill. 

• I think Marist will win easily, although Parkrose likes to score early and often. 
• If either Ashland or Churchill is going to pull off the upset, I think it would be Churchill.   I think Ashland is a better team than Churchill, but the Grizzlies are going to play a team that is simply amazing in their running game.  Sherwood brings emotional tears to my 1950's eyes by jamming the ball down the opponents throats on the ground. 
• Churchill gets to play Wilsonville, a team that is a little more balanced than Sherwood. Churchill should be able to put together a plan with hopes of slowing down Wilsonville. And Wilsonville is much more likely than Sherwood to give up points.

Final RPI humor

I like the RPI and seeding.  It helps avoid matchups of clearly top teams until the quarters or even semis.  There is still some fine tuning to do, but I think it is a big winner.  Nevertheless:

Keep in mind these are playoff games and things are serious now:

W by 44    Marist          RPI + 4
W by 35    Ashland              -13
W by 15    Churchill            +  8
L   by 44    Eagle Point        +13
L   by 21    Springfield         +  1
L   by 31    Marshfield         +14
L   by 42   North Eugene    +17

All teams that lost, gained in the RPI, although it doesn't matter to them.  All losing teams were eliminated from the playoffs, so increasing their RPI doesn't matter.  Ashland's loss of 13 RPI  points really changed their playoff pairing.  Had Ashland just broke even in RPI points, the Grizzlies would be rated 9th, not 13th.

Teams with hopes of going deep in the playoffs need to schedule tough non-league games during the regular season, knowing that a loss to a tough team is worth more RPI points than a win over a wimpy team.  They also need to schedule a tough game during the first play-in week.  The way the RPI works, a loss against a top team may increase your RPI. 

Watch a Play Off game

If you've got a kid who will be returning next year, take him to a playoff game.  Marist and Sheldon games would be great games to watch.  If I were a coach of team that has been knocked out of the playoffs, I'd try and gather as many returning players as I could and go to a playoff game.  I'll probably go to the Marist game this week.  But I'm tempted to see Ashland at Sherwood.  I saw Sherwood last year.  They have the same great backs.  I think the only way you beat Sherwood is by outscoring them.  And I know Sherwood is going to be sitting on Scarmanich.

Mid-Willamette vs MWL 8, RPI & All Stars

Second Round Play-In Games

Five of the seven MWL 8 play-in games are against Mid-Willamette teams. The RPI system thinks the Mid-Willamette league is the SEC of Oregon.

Here's a breakdown of how the MWL compares:

League Finish    Mid Will RPI   MWL8 RPI
          1                     603               627       +24 
          2                     602               568        -34
          3                     572               517        -55
          4                     547               496        -51
          5                     504               445        -59
          6                     437               437          0
          7                     397               363        -34
          8                     391               338        -53

If the Mid-Willamette League sweeps us, four of the five winner's RPI's are likely to go down.  That would serve them right.

Interesting Play-In Notes:

• The only Mid-Willamette team that isn't playing a MWL 8 team is West Albany (5-3, 547 RPI) which travels to Bend (4-4, 552).
• The only MWL 6 team not to play a Mid Willamette team  is Marist, who plays MWL 8 member Eagle Point.  This boo-boo in scheduling has given speculation to:
•  The MWL 8 could become an official league next year.  That would be an appropriate adjustment to the new everyone in playoff system.  Eagle Point, third in the MWL 8, ahead of five other MWL 8 teams, had to play a play in game.  Three teams that finished below them in the MWL 8 had byes.  Making the MWL 8 an official football league would also eliminate a second round game between to MWL 8 teams.

The Match Ups

• Marist vs Eagle Point at Willamette High.  Most people will think the outcome will be the same as when these two teams met four weeks ago.  I think the Eagle's hope lies in finding a way for the Eagle line to control some part of the Marist D line.  This is a tall order as they will be facing league MVP Matthew Devereux and league defensive MVP Logan Mayes.  If Eagle Point can open some lanes for the backs to punch out a few yards, the Eagles can blend their running game with a crisp passing game.  Defensively, Eagle Point won't stop Marist, but Marist has had a few games where they lost the ball several times.
• South Albany (2-7, 391 RPI) at Ashland (6-2, 568).  I watched South Albany dispatch Willamette last week at Willamette.  The Rebels running back Adam Schamp, #22, was too quick and way too fast for Willamette.  Ashland's D is quick enough to slow down Schamp and Ashland's Scarmanich & Volz will control the ball effectively and receivers Lime, Dodds and Heater will find the soft spots.
• Silverton (4-4, 504 RPI) at Churchill (4-3, 496).  Note that Silverton beat Springfield 35-28 in the season opener.  Silverton has a 60:40 rush to pass ratio.  They pound the ball at a little over 56 yards a carry.  They have a 5'9" workhorse in #5, Troy Sinn.  Sinn is the leading rusher, but at just 4.1 YPC.  Joe Bochsler, #13, who doesn't get many carries, but averages 8.5 YPC,  is the second leading rusher on the team.  Quarterback Nic Reinhard has solid 94 qb rating.  He's thrown 12 td passes versus just 3 interceptions.    Silverton is much improved from their first game of the season against Springfield.  Churchill will have their hands full.  I don't think you'll see turnovers by Silverton.  Churchill will have to play sharp.  Turn over the ball and the Foxes will just pound it on the ground and control the clock and game. The Lancers filled 22 positions in the all league voting.  They will all have to play like all leaguers to win this one.
• Lebanon (6-2, 572 RPI) at Springfield (3-5, 445).  This is strictly the Air Force versus Army.  Lebanon runs the ball 83% of the time!  They average 6.6 YPC.  Yikes!  Springfield passes the ball 51% of the time.  I say, let 'er rip.  Hopefully, Lebanon won't be able to stop Levi Green's passing game.  After all, Lebanon doesn't see much passing in their league.  In Lebanon's favor is that Springfield didn't have any defensive players make all league lineman.  Could be a high scoring game.
• Marshfield (3-5, 437 RPI) at Crescent Valley (6-2, 602).  Crescent Valley runs the ball 70% of the time. Marshfield is about the same.  The Raiders M.O. is to control the ball, slowly march down the field for a TD, then stuff the opponent.  They don't go wild on offense, but they have scored at least 27 points in their last six games.   Their defense has held their opponents to two or fewer TD's in the last five games.  Marshfield's offense has gone wild twice this year, and they are due.  The Pirates will see some smash-mouth football out or Crescent Valley, but if the Pirates explode, they might surprise the Raiders who don't usually strike quickly.
• North Eugene (1-8, 363 RPI) at Corvallis (6-2, 603).  A true David versus Goliath game.  Corvallis is a passing team according to Mid-Willamette standards, passing 35% of the time. Corvallis has really weird stats.  The qb is very efficient in the td to int area, but only averages 11.8 yards per completion.  They run the ball a lot, but only average 3.9 yards per carry due to quarterback sacks.  The Highlanders are rightly a long shot.  If the Highlanders can keep Corvallis from ripping off huge yards in their running game, they might keep themselves in the game and have a chance at the end.

League All Stars

The MVP discussions couldn't have taken too long.  My vision is that the other coaches pulled a Saturday Night Live skit and bowed down and said, "We are not worthy."  And then they let Marist coach Frank Geske squirm as he had to choose among Devereux, Mayes and Silver for the MVP spots.  By the way the last lineman to win league MVP was, of course, a Pirate.  Marshfield's Mike Beslisle pulled off the trick in 1997.  Since then it's been five QB's, five RB's and two receivers.   Link to MVP's since 1980

All in all, I thought the selections were very good.  There were very few that made me scratch my head. I would have hoped a few more Highlanders would have made the team.  Here's a breakdown:

Team                1st   2nd   HM  Total
Marist                10     8       5       23
Ashland               4     6       9       19
Eagle Point          4     3       8       15      
Churchill              4     8        9      21
Springfield           3     1        6       10
Marshfield            1     3        5         9
Willamette           1     1        4         6
North Eugene      0     0        1         1

I'll be inputting the all league players on each teams section over the next few days.  Let me know if I omit anyone or get some info/spelling wrong.