Warriors dreaming of upsetting Spartans? & How 'bout them Lancers?

Most scouts who watch Marist probably go back to their team's head coach with advice to stock up the first aid kit.  But I have to believe that the Lebanon Warrior scouts went home thinking they have an opportunity.

The scouts and spectators watched Logan Silver get his first 300 yard rushing game against Parkrose.  Silver ended the day with 365 yards on 30 carries.  Yikes, that's over 12 yards per carry.  Silver also completed 10 passes for 90 yards.  Four of his completions were for TD's.  So why would the  Lebanon scouts think they have a chance after watching the undefeated Spartans (10-0) win their eighth straight game by at least 40  points?

Well, Lebanon plays in a league that primarily runs the ball.  And they watched Marist put the ball in the hands of just one guy all night and told him to run.  The scouts have to be thinking, "There's only one ball carrier to follow without Greg Park in the backfield.  We play in a league that runs the ball.  We know how to stop the run.  We stop Silver, we can win."

I also have to believe they saw something to work with in Parkrose's defensive scheme.  Parkrose kept Marist out of the end zone on two early red zone penetrations.  Parkrose set up three down lineman in wide gaps and let the linebackers fill the holes.  I thought Parkrose had a good plan, but it looked like that was their only plan.  When a team runs the same set on defense over and over, it is easy to figure out a way to defeat the scheme.

I also think Lebanon will be in better shape than Parkrose.  A couple of Marist fans made some pre-game comments about how 'big' Parkrose was.  My response was, "We'll see how 'big' they are after the first quarter, when they've chased Marist around the field."  The Parkrose guys got smaller as they ran out of gas and couldn't move far enough or fast enough to cover the ground needed to keep up with Marist.

Bottom line is that I think Lebanon has the potential to make the upcoming quarterfinal game a real match.  They should be athletic enough to execute a scheme to stop Silver from running wild.  But Marist ran Silver a lot because that's what Parkrose gave Marist.  The week before, when Greg Park left the game against Eagle Point in the first half, Marist lit it up through the air in the second half, including two touchdowns over 29 yards.

Churchill (#17 RPI) bounces Wilsonville (#2 RPI, #5 OregonLive Poll)

Early in the year, I said I loved Air Lancer and they make me laugh because the Lancer's make no effort to disguise what they are going to do.  The just send out the receivers and throw.  The receivers get the glory, but it's unrecognized QB Derek Godfrey who makes this year's version of Air Lancer work.  Godfrey has thrown ten td passes in his last four games, including six in the playoffs.  The Lancer's air game is set up via the pounding of the ball by junior running back Aaron Ingram, who averages around 100 yards a game and  over 5 yards a carry.

The Wilsonville Upset.  What's that old saying?  "Success comes when preparation meets opportunity."  That describes Churchill's win over Wilsonville, who was #2 in the RPI and #5 in the final OregonLive poll.  I mentioned in last week's blog that I thought Churchill had a good shot at upsetting Wilsonville.  Wilsonville's defense has been suspect and while Wilsonville was a high scoring  team, they hadn't been overwhelming some mediocre to weak teams the last several weeks of the regular season and the play-in game.

Those two reason's were enough for me to think upset for the high octane Lancers.  Then Opportunity raised its head even further when Wilsonville's leading tackler and second leading scorer was injured and ruled out for the Churchill game due to a serious injury incurred during the play-in game.  Still, Wilsonville was ranked ahead of Marist in the RPI.  Does anyone think Marist would lose to Churchill if Marist lost their leading tackler?

So Churchill drove to Wilsonville where Preparation met Opportunity.  Little did anyone know, but Churchill also had a giant dose of Coolness Under Pressure in their Preparedness plan.

If you missed it, here's how it went:

• Churchill    14-0  midway thru 1st. 2 TD passes
• Wilsonville 14-14   with 12 seconds left in 1st.

• Wilsonville  21-14   early in 2nd quarter.
• Wilsonville  21-17  Chill quickly scores field goal.
• Wilsonville  28-17  at half. WV 24 yd rush TD.       

• Wilsonville  28-24.  Chill's Moore 14 run early in 3rd.
• Churchill      30-28   Determan 32 td catch 14 seconds after Moore's td in 3rd q.

• Wilsonville   34-30 Td with 10 minutes to go
• Wilsonville   41-30 Td 6 minutes to go. Uh-Oh
• Wilsonville   41-36 Churchill's Ingram 1 yd run with 4:48 to go
• Churchill      42-41 Godfrey to Savelich 31 yds 2:15 left in game.  2 pt conversion failed.

I got drained just reading the scoring summary.  I haven't seen a well written article about the game yet.  I'll let you know if I do.  There must have been some  key turnovers, as Churchill scored touchdowns back to back within 30 seconds - TWICE!

Crescent Valley is the quarterfinal opponent for Churchill.  Crescent Valley lost the Mid-Willamette title by 1 point to Corvallis in a week 2 game at Corvallis.  Once again I like the Lancer's chances. However, Crescent Valley's run game is cause for concern.  The Raiders run the ball 70% of the time.   They don't break the long ones, they just grind it and control the clock.  I think this game will be won or lost by Churchill's D line and linebackers.  If they can get the ball back into the hands of the Churchill O, I believe Air Lancer will score.  If the Raiders just control the clock and grind it out, it'll be tough for Churchill to get the air show going.

It looks like it's going to rain Friday, so I'll be leaving my camera at home and watching the Marist-Lebanon game from the stands.  I like an occasional game in the stands.  I get a much better feel for what the coaches are trying to accomplish when I sit in the stands, compared to when I am looking through the camera eyepiece.