.
Should Marist beat Crescent Valley? Yes.
Could Crescent Valley beat Marist? Yes. Of course, a lot needs to go Crescent Valley's way.
Crescent Vally does one thing on offense and they do it well. They run the ball. They are on the ground 71% of the time. Over half of the carries by the Raiders have been by 5' 7", 180 lb senior Andrew Oglesby. He's been good for over 1,500 yards on the ground. And no one else on the team is close to those numbers.
The passing game, such that it is, has produced 12 touchdowns against 5 interceptions out of junior quarterback Chase Cochran. All-World freshman, 6' 4" Tanner Sanders, has a third of the Raiders catches and a third of their yards through the air. Sanders is the real deal. He's a big yardage receiver.
So, what's to like about the Crescent Valley offense? When a team focuses on one thing they can do it very, very well. If the Raiders can be successful with the run against Marist, they can control the clock and keep the Marist scoring machine off the field. If the Raiders can run, Marist better not get out of the blocks slowly like they did last week (first td excepted) against Lebanon. You don't want to get behind against a team that is successful on the ground and can control the clock and time of possession. I also like the fact that they have the frosh Sanders to go to through the air in the event the ground game isn't effective or if Marist starts overplaying the run. I'm expecting to see the tall Sanders in the middle secondary of Marist's D.
Crescent Vally has been an on/off team on defense. They've held eight of their opponents to two touchdowns or less. On the other hand, they've given up four to five touchdowns to four opponents. Nothing in between. The Raider defense is led by 6' 0", 215 lb senior linebacker Kyle Garnder. Garner is an animal with over 11 tackles per game. Does Marist game plan to run away from him, take him on or try and confuse him with misdirection? I'm guessing that the Spartans will work away from him.
I think Marist's offense and defense are too quick for the Raiders. It's going to be another slugfest in the trenches this week, but I don't think Crescent Vally has the wheels to get around the corner and the Marist linebackers and db's won't allow the big breakaway up the middle. I also think that Crescent Valley will eventually have to go to the frosh Sanders through the air. Sanders is likely to have some success against the shorter Spartans, but if the Raiders have to go to the air a lot, they are also looking at some picks.
So should Marist win it? Yes. Could Crescent Valley upset the Spartans? Yes. A consistent grinding ground game and a few long passes to Sanders and the Raiders are in the game. Hopefully, Marist comes out fired up at the start of the Crescent Valley game like they did in the second half against Lebanon. It was okay to come out and be methodical in execution during league, but they need to use that intensity we saw in the second half last week if the Spartans want to make it to the finals.
MWL Alums in college and pros
I put out a call for former mwl players who went on to play football in college and pro ball. It looks like at least 5 Spartans are currently playing college ball. They are playing for Boise State, Oregon, Oregon State, Montana State and Portland State. Churchill has at least two. Both at Oregon. Let me know if I'm missing any. And it's okay to go back in time. I usually do my college and pro page maintenance in the off season, so the timing to gather the info is perfect. I'll set up a section for Ashland and Eagle Point if I get some info. College player link. Pro Player link.
Current poll.
The fan voting poll currently shows 69% of fans think Marist is going to win and 80% think Sherwood is going to win.
Happy Thanksgiving. I just found out that by brother is bringing three guests from France to Thanksgiving dinner. And they are staying over night Thursday. My wife didn't faint!
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Marist - C Valley and Lebanon, Air Lancer
Last week I wrote that Lebanon might be having dreams about the possibility of beating Marist. At the game, I barely had time to put on my gloves to warm my freezing hands, when Silver hit Walcott on a 62 yard td bomb. Then;
Second half adjustments. For the first time all year, Marist ran onto the field like wild banshees. Marist inserted Walcott into the defensive secondary and was rewarded with a Walcott pick on the first Lebanon series. Marist's D line picked it up a level or three. Mayes was particularly impressive. No mercy for Duerr, the Warrior qb. Eventually he was knocked out of the game for a couple of possessions. Game over. Marist scored 21 points in the third quarter.
My mind was thinking it was funny watching Lebanon try to go side to side so much. Trying the corner a few times is okay, but after you've been repeatedly held to no gains or losses, try something else. It looked like Lebanon was giving Marist's Will Swindling a SPARQ's side to side shuttle test for 48 minutes. He passed every time.
Coach Greske showed a couple of things for the scouts to think about:
The reality of the game was that Lebanon was the three seed from their conference. You've got to be in the elite category to play with Marist.
Crescent Valley. A 6'4", 185 pound freshman wide receiver,Tanner Sanders, is why the Raiders are still in the playoffs. He caught a key pass in a play-in game that put CV into the lead late in the game against The Dalles-Wahtonka. I mention this so you'll remember his name in basketball season and to remind you that CV can pass the ball, even though they run far more often then they pass.
While not a statewide elite team like Sherwood, Marist, Mountain View, Jefferson and Wilsonville, Crescent Valley is from the smash mouth Mid-Willamette league that includes Lebanon. They'll be deeper in personnel, talent and size than Lebanon. EArlier I noted that had Lebanon made their first half field goals, they would have been in a 20-12 game at halftime. Crescent Valley should be better than that. Also, keep in mind that Crescent Valley scored 63 points against Churchill last week on a sloppy field. That's a lot of points.
Will Churchill fans be rooting for Crescent Valley?
Churchill alum Tim Euhus is the offensive coordinator for CV. That sets up a match up of former NFL player Euhus against former Portland State assistant coach Frank Geske. Let me think.... NFL versus college. Does Geske have a chance?
Churchill's Great Season
I'm a dinosaur. My bones tell me that football should be played on grass. Or mud, if it rains. When I played ball, passing was almost cheating. Passing was definitely not macho. The trenches were where it was at. But I've had a receiver and qb in my family this decade and I sure like the excitement of the big play through the air. So I was sad to see the Churchill - CV game played on grass, in sloppy conditions. In the year 1999, I watched my Sheldon boys lose one in soup at Jefferson. Passing was impossible. Fortunately, the next year was when Sheldon and the 4j schools put in artificial turf. That led to a state quarterfinal, then a state runner up and the next year a championship.
Churchill cut a 20-29 halftime deficit to 27-29 46 seconds into the second half on a Godfrey to Savelich 68 yarder. Godfrey threw for 286 yards and two tds. Ingram ran for 199 yards and 4 tds. A good finish for these seniors. Remember Tanner Sanders, the Crescent Valley freshman I mentioned earlier for his efforts against the Dalles-Wahtonka? Against Churchill, he caught a td pass off of a fake field goal attempt and intercepted a pass for a 44 yd pick six. Marist fans should get ready for Sanders, running back Andre Oglesby and qb Chase Cochran. They torched Marshfield with 44 points and Churchill with 63 points. As good as Oglesby is, I don't think he has the speed to get by the Marist linebackers.
Baseball
Baseball? A lot of people are probably moving on to other sports or graduation. But before you move on, please let me know if any of your football players are also baseball players. I maintain a baseball site, too. Ashland and Eagle Point won't be in the MWL league for baseball, but I still want to track their baseball players. I'm not familiar with Eagle Point baseball, but Ashland's qb Jake Scarmanich and Brady Thomas played in the state championship game against North Eugene. Any Eagle football players projected to play baseball? Email me at mwlnow@yahoom.com.
Pros in NFL/CFL football
Does your team have any former players who went onto the NFL or CFL? Let me know if I don't have them on my list. I think Chad Cota was from Ashland? Anyway, let me know. Here's what I have in my initial attempt MWL players in the NFL/CFL
MWL alums playing football in college
I also maintain a list of players who have gone on to play college ball. I try to keep it to D-I players, but we can fudge a little. MWL alums who played in college Go back in time as far as you can. I keep this information because when my kids played at Sheldon, most players didn't know that three former Sheldon players had played in a Super Bowl, much less played in college. If a Cottage Grove, North Bend or Junction city alum is reading this, let me know if you've had any college/pro players. You were in the MWL at one time.
Search
There are search engines in the football and baseball websites. They are not your regular google search. They are are targeted so you can find MWL alums/coaches on the MWL website. Type in the name of the MWL person you want to search for and the search engine will find all of the entries on the MWL website. If I'm missing someone, let me know.
Nearing the end of season
Thanks for your support. I really appreciate your positive comments. Your comments and purchases of photos help me convince my wife that I should spend too much time maintaining the MWL website. I also appreciate your critical comments. They help me reconsider what my wandering mind has been writing.
- Lebanon ate up six and a half minutes on thier first series, but missed a field goal.
- Marist scored quickly and I thought the Lebanon dream was going to be a nightmare.
- But Lebanon came on strong and pulled within 14-6 early in the second quarter.
- Marist answered quickly, to go up 20-6 with ten minutes left in the second quarter.
- However, Lebanon then outplayed Marist the rest of the quarter, but stalled out deep in Marist territory right before the half. After three incomplete passes from the 8, Lebanon attempted a short field goal, but missed.
Second half adjustments. For the first time all year, Marist ran onto the field like wild banshees. Marist inserted Walcott into the defensive secondary and was rewarded with a Walcott pick on the first Lebanon series. Marist's D line picked it up a level or three. Mayes was particularly impressive. No mercy for Duerr, the Warrior qb. Eventually he was knocked out of the game for a couple of possessions. Game over. Marist scored 21 points in the third quarter.
My mind was thinking it was funny watching Lebanon try to go side to side so much. Trying the corner a few times is okay, but after you've been repeatedly held to no gains or losses, try something else. It looked like Lebanon was giving Marist's Will Swindling a SPARQ's side to side shuttle test for 48 minutes. He passed every time.
Coach Greske showed a couple of things for the scouts to think about:
- Chiongbian took two handoffs, his only two carries of the game, to the endzone. Last week, Silver was the only rusher while the first string was in.
- Going for the jugular with the 62 yd td pass to Walcott on the second play of the game has to go into a scout notebook. The notebook entry should say "No time to get the feel of the opponent".
The reality of the game was that Lebanon was the three seed from their conference. You've got to be in the elite category to play with Marist.
Crescent Valley. A 6'4", 185 pound freshman wide receiver,Tanner Sanders, is why the Raiders are still in the playoffs. He caught a key pass in a play-in game that put CV into the lead late in the game against The Dalles-Wahtonka. I mention this so you'll remember his name in basketball season and to remind you that CV can pass the ball, even though they run far more often then they pass.
While not a statewide elite team like Sherwood, Marist, Mountain View, Jefferson and Wilsonville, Crescent Valley is from the smash mouth Mid-Willamette league that includes Lebanon. They'll be deeper in personnel, talent and size than Lebanon. EArlier I noted that had Lebanon made their first half field goals, they would have been in a 20-12 game at halftime. Crescent Valley should be better than that. Also, keep in mind that Crescent Valley scored 63 points against Churchill last week on a sloppy field. That's a lot of points.
Will Churchill fans be rooting for Crescent Valley?
Churchill alum Tim Euhus is the offensive coordinator for CV. That sets up a match up of former NFL player Euhus against former Portland State assistant coach Frank Geske. Let me think.... NFL versus college. Does Geske have a chance?
Churchill's Great Season
I'm a dinosaur. My bones tell me that football should be played on grass. Or mud, if it rains. When I played ball, passing was almost cheating. Passing was definitely not macho. The trenches were where it was at. But I've had a receiver and qb in my family this decade and I sure like the excitement of the big play through the air. So I was sad to see the Churchill - CV game played on grass, in sloppy conditions. In the year 1999, I watched my Sheldon boys lose one in soup at Jefferson. Passing was impossible. Fortunately, the next year was when Sheldon and the 4j schools put in artificial turf. That led to a state quarterfinal, then a state runner up and the next year a championship.
Churchill cut a 20-29 halftime deficit to 27-29 46 seconds into the second half on a Godfrey to Savelich 68 yarder. Godfrey threw for 286 yards and two tds. Ingram ran for 199 yards and 4 tds. A good finish for these seniors. Remember Tanner Sanders, the Crescent Valley freshman I mentioned earlier for his efforts against the Dalles-Wahtonka? Against Churchill, he caught a td pass off of a fake field goal attempt and intercepted a pass for a 44 yd pick six. Marist fans should get ready for Sanders, running back Andre Oglesby and qb Chase Cochran. They torched Marshfield with 44 points and Churchill with 63 points. As good as Oglesby is, I don't think he has the speed to get by the Marist linebackers.
Baseball
Baseball? A lot of people are probably moving on to other sports or graduation. But before you move on, please let me know if any of your football players are also baseball players. I maintain a baseball site, too. Ashland and Eagle Point won't be in the MWL league for baseball, but I still want to track their baseball players. I'm not familiar with Eagle Point baseball, but Ashland's qb Jake Scarmanich and Brady Thomas played in the state championship game against North Eugene. Any Eagle football players projected to play baseball? Email me at mwlnow@yahoom.com.
Pros in NFL/CFL football
Does your team have any former players who went onto the NFL or CFL? Let me know if I don't have them on my list. I think Chad Cota was from Ashland? Anyway, let me know. Here's what I have in my initial attempt MWL players in the NFL/CFL
MWL alums playing football in college
I also maintain a list of players who have gone on to play college ball. I try to keep it to D-I players, but we can fudge a little. MWL alums who played in college Go back in time as far as you can. I keep this information because when my kids played at Sheldon, most players didn't know that three former Sheldon players had played in a Super Bowl, much less played in college. If a Cottage Grove, North Bend or Junction city alum is reading this, let me know if you've had any college/pro players. You were in the MWL at one time.
Search
There are search engines in the football and baseball websites. They are not your regular google search. They are are targeted so you can find MWL alums/coaches on the MWL website. Type in the name of the MWL person you want to search for and the search engine will find all of the entries on the MWL website. If I'm missing someone, let me know.
Nearing the end of season
Thanks for your support. I really appreciate your positive comments. Your comments and purchases of photos help me convince my wife that I should spend too much time maintaining the MWL website. I also appreciate your critical comments. They help me reconsider what my wandering mind has been writing.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Warriors dreaming of upsetting Spartans? & How 'bout them Lancers?
Most scouts who watch Marist probably go back to their team's head coach with advice to stock up the first aid kit. But I have to believe that the Lebanon Warrior scouts went home thinking they have an opportunity.
The scouts and spectators watched Logan Silver get his first 300 yard rushing game against Parkrose. Silver ended the day with 365 yards on 30 carries. Yikes, that's over 12 yards per carry. Silver also completed 10 passes for 90 yards. Four of his completions were for TD's. So why would the Lebanon scouts think they have a chance after watching the undefeated Spartans (10-0) win their eighth straight game by at least 40 points?
Well, Lebanon plays in a league that primarily runs the ball. And they watched Marist put the ball in the hands of just one guy all night and told him to run. The scouts have to be thinking, "There's only one ball carrier to follow without Greg Park in the backfield. We play in a league that runs the ball. We know how to stop the run. We stop Silver, we can win."
I also have to believe they saw something to work with in Parkrose's defensive scheme. Parkrose kept Marist out of the end zone on two early red zone penetrations. Parkrose set up three down lineman in wide gaps and let the linebackers fill the holes. I thought Parkrose had a good plan, but it looked like that was their only plan. When a team runs the same set on defense over and over, it is easy to figure out a way to defeat the scheme.
I also think Lebanon will be in better shape than Parkrose. A couple of Marist fans made some pre-game comments about how 'big' Parkrose was. My response was, "We'll see how 'big' they are after the first quarter, when they've chased Marist around the field." The Parkrose guys got smaller as they ran out of gas and couldn't move far enough or fast enough to cover the ground needed to keep up with Marist.
Bottom line is that I think Lebanon has the potential to make the upcoming quarterfinal game a real match. They should be athletic enough to execute a scheme to stop Silver from running wild. But Marist ran Silver a lot because that's what Parkrose gave Marist. The week before, when Greg Park left the game against Eagle Point in the first half, Marist lit it up through the air in the second half, including two touchdowns over 29 yards.
Churchill (#17 RPI) bounces Wilsonville (#2 RPI, #5 OregonLive Poll)
Early in the year, I said I loved Air Lancer and they make me laugh because the Lancer's make no effort to disguise what they are going to do. The just send out the receivers and throw. The receivers get the glory, but it's unrecognized QB Derek Godfrey who makes this year's version of Air Lancer work. Godfrey has thrown ten td passes in his last four games, including six in the playoffs. The Lancer's air game is set up via the pounding of the ball by junior running back Aaron Ingram, who averages around 100 yards a game and over 5 yards a carry.
The Wilsonville Upset. What's that old saying? "Success comes when preparation meets opportunity." That describes Churchill's win over Wilsonville, who was #2 in the RPI and #5 in the final OregonLive poll. I mentioned in last week's blog that I thought Churchill had a good shot at upsetting Wilsonville. Wilsonville's defense has been suspect and while Wilsonville was a high scoring team, they hadn't been overwhelming some mediocre to weak teams the last several weeks of the regular season and the play-in game.
Those two reason's were enough for me to think upset for the high octane Lancers. Then Opportunity raised its head even further when Wilsonville's leading tackler and second leading scorer was injured and ruled out for the Churchill game due to a serious injury incurred during the play-in game. Still, Wilsonville was ranked ahead of Marist in the RPI. Does anyone think Marist would lose to Churchill if Marist lost their leading tackler?
So Churchill drove to Wilsonville where Preparation met Opportunity. Little did anyone know, but Churchill also had a giant dose of Coolness Under Pressure in their Preparedness plan.
If you missed it, here's how it went:
I got drained just reading the scoring summary. I haven't seen a well written article about the game yet. I'll let you know if I do. There must have been some key turnovers, as Churchill scored touchdowns back to back within 30 seconds - TWICE!
Crescent Valley is the quarterfinal opponent for Churchill. Crescent Valley lost the Mid-Willamette title by 1 point to Corvallis in a week 2 game at Corvallis. Once again I like the Lancer's chances. However, Crescent Valley's run game is cause for concern. The Raiders run the ball 70% of the time. They don't break the long ones, they just grind it and control the clock. I think this game will be won or lost by Churchill's D line and linebackers. If they can get the ball back into the hands of the Churchill O, I believe Air Lancer will score. If the Raiders just control the clock and grind it out, it'll be tough for Churchill to get the air show going.
It looks like it's going to rain Friday, so I'll be leaving my camera at home and watching the Marist-Lebanon game from the stands. I like an occasional game in the stands. I get a much better feel for what the coaches are trying to accomplish when I sit in the stands, compared to when I am looking through the camera eyepiece.
The scouts and spectators watched Logan Silver get his first 300 yard rushing game against Parkrose. Silver ended the day with 365 yards on 30 carries. Yikes, that's over 12 yards per carry. Silver also completed 10 passes for 90 yards. Four of his completions were for TD's. So why would the Lebanon scouts think they have a chance after watching the undefeated Spartans (10-0) win their eighth straight game by at least 40 points?
Well, Lebanon plays in a league that primarily runs the ball. And they watched Marist put the ball in the hands of just one guy all night and told him to run. The scouts have to be thinking, "There's only one ball carrier to follow without Greg Park in the backfield. We play in a league that runs the ball. We know how to stop the run. We stop Silver, we can win."
I also have to believe they saw something to work with in Parkrose's defensive scheme. Parkrose kept Marist out of the end zone on two early red zone penetrations. Parkrose set up three down lineman in wide gaps and let the linebackers fill the holes. I thought Parkrose had a good plan, but it looked like that was their only plan. When a team runs the same set on defense over and over, it is easy to figure out a way to defeat the scheme.
I also think Lebanon will be in better shape than Parkrose. A couple of Marist fans made some pre-game comments about how 'big' Parkrose was. My response was, "We'll see how 'big' they are after the first quarter, when they've chased Marist around the field." The Parkrose guys got smaller as they ran out of gas and couldn't move far enough or fast enough to cover the ground needed to keep up with Marist.
Bottom line is that I think Lebanon has the potential to make the upcoming quarterfinal game a real match. They should be athletic enough to execute a scheme to stop Silver from running wild. But Marist ran Silver a lot because that's what Parkrose gave Marist. The week before, when Greg Park left the game against Eagle Point in the first half, Marist lit it up through the air in the second half, including two touchdowns over 29 yards.
Churchill (#17 RPI) bounces Wilsonville (#2 RPI, #5 OregonLive Poll)
Early in the year, I said I loved Air Lancer and they make me laugh because the Lancer's make no effort to disguise what they are going to do. The just send out the receivers and throw. The receivers get the glory, but it's unrecognized QB Derek Godfrey who makes this year's version of Air Lancer work. Godfrey has thrown ten td passes in his last four games, including six in the playoffs. The Lancer's air game is set up via the pounding of the ball by junior running back Aaron Ingram, who averages around 100 yards a game and over 5 yards a carry.
The Wilsonville Upset. What's that old saying? "Success comes when preparation meets opportunity." That describes Churchill's win over Wilsonville, who was #2 in the RPI and #5 in the final OregonLive poll. I mentioned in last week's blog that I thought Churchill had a good shot at upsetting Wilsonville. Wilsonville's defense has been suspect and while Wilsonville was a high scoring team, they hadn't been overwhelming some mediocre to weak teams the last several weeks of the regular season and the play-in game.
Those two reason's were enough for me to think upset for the high octane Lancers. Then Opportunity raised its head even further when Wilsonville's leading tackler and second leading scorer was injured and ruled out for the Churchill game due to a serious injury incurred during the play-in game. Still, Wilsonville was ranked ahead of Marist in the RPI. Does anyone think Marist would lose to Churchill if Marist lost their leading tackler?
So Churchill drove to Wilsonville where Preparation met Opportunity. Little did anyone know, but Churchill also had a giant dose of Coolness Under Pressure in their Preparedness plan.
If you missed it, here's how it went:
- Churchill 14-0 midway thru 1st. 2 TD passes
- Wilsonville 14-14 with 12 seconds left in 1st.
- Wilsonville 21-14 early in 2nd quarter.
- Wilsonville 21-17 Chill quickly scores field goal.
- Wilsonville 28-17 at half. WV 24 yd rush TD.
- Wilsonville 28-24. Chill's Moore 14 run early in 3rd.
- Churchill 30-28 Determan 32 td catch 14 seconds after Moore's td in 3rd q.
- Wilsonville 34-30 Td with 10 minutes to go
- Wilsonville 41-30 Td 6 minutes to go. Uh-Oh
- Wilsonville 41-36 Churchill's Ingram 1 yd run with 4:48 to go
- Churchill 42-41 Godfrey to Savelich 31 yds 2:15 left in game. 2 pt conversion failed.
I got drained just reading the scoring summary. I haven't seen a well written article about the game yet. I'll let you know if I do. There must have been some key turnovers, as Churchill scored touchdowns back to back within 30 seconds - TWICE!
Crescent Valley is the quarterfinal opponent for Churchill. Crescent Valley lost the Mid-Willamette title by 1 point to Corvallis in a week 2 game at Corvallis. Once again I like the Lancer's chances. However, Crescent Valley's run game is cause for concern. The Raiders run the ball 70% of the time. They don't break the long ones, they just grind it and control the clock. I think this game will be won or lost by Churchill's D line and linebackers. If they can get the ball back into the hands of the Churchill O, I believe Air Lancer will score. If the Raiders just control the clock and grind it out, it'll be tough for Churchill to get the air show going.
It looks like it's going to rain Friday, so I'll be leaving my camera at home and watching the Marist-Lebanon game from the stands. I like an occasional game in the stands. I get a much better feel for what the coaches are trying to accomplish when I sit in the stands, compared to when I am looking through the camera eyepiece.
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Marist over Eagles - what you didn't read & RPI stuff
Marist over Eagle Point
Steve Mims article in The Register-Guard captured the highlights of the game. Logan Silver throwing for 5 td's. Receivers Walcott and Baird going wild. Marist recovered three fumbles and had two picks. And coach Geske saying Marist needs to clean things up on O and D.
Some items you didn't read about.
Marist hosts Parkrose
Ashland travels to Sherwood
Churchill travels to Wilsonville
Marist, Sherwood and Wilsonville are three of the four elite teams this year. Mountain View is the fourth. Jefferson always is ranked high, but they just aren't consistent enough to make it to the top of the mountain. (Although, Jeff made it to the finals last year.) In theory, Marist will crush Parkrose, Sherwood will crush Ashland and Wilsonville will crush Churchill.
Final RPI humor
I like the RPI and seeding. It helps avoid matchups of clearly top teams until the quarters or even semis. There is still some fine tuning to do, but I think it is a big winner. Nevertheless:
Keep in mind these are playoff games and things are serious now:
W by 44 Marist RPI + 4
W by 35 Ashland -13
W by 15 Churchill + 8
L by 44 Eagle Point +13
L by 21 Springfield + 1
L by 31 Marshfield +14
L by 42 North Eugene +17
All teams that lost, gained in the RPI, although it doesn't matter to them. All losing teams were eliminated from the playoffs, so increasing their RPI doesn't matter. Ashland's loss of 13 RPI points really changed their playoff pairing. Had Ashland just broke even in RPI points, the Grizzlies would be rated 9th, not 13th.
Teams with hopes of going deep in the playoffs need to schedule tough non-league games during the regular season, knowing that a loss to a tough team is worth more RPI points than a win over a wimpy team. They also need to schedule a tough game during the first play-in week. The way the RPI works, a loss against a top team may increase your RPI.
Watch a Play Off game
If you've got a kid who will be returning next year, take him to a playoff game. Marist and Sheldon games would be great games to watch. If I were a coach of team that has been knocked out of the playoffs, I'd try and gather as many returning players as I could and go to a playoff game. I'll probably go to the Marist game this week. But I'm tempted to see Ashland at Sherwood. I saw Sherwood last year. They have the same great backs. I think the only way you beat Sherwood is by outscoring them. And I know Sherwood is going to be sitting on Scarmanich.
Steve Mims article in The Register-Guard captured the highlights of the game. Logan Silver throwing for 5 td's. Receivers Walcott and Baird going wild. Marist recovered three fumbles and had two picks. And coach Geske saying Marist needs to clean things up on O and D.
Some items you didn't read about.
- Running back Greg Park scored early in the game, but left the game during the first half and came out on crutches after halftime.....
- Marist punter Colton Bowden had two key punts in the game. The first gem was a 50 yarder from his endzone. The second was a kick from the Eagle Point side of the field that Bowden neatly punched down the left sideline, pinning the Eagles deep rather than giving the Eagles the ball on the 20 by kicking through the end zone. Little things make a great team.....
- Eagle Point racked up a lot of rushing yardage, mostly on quarterback Shane Bluhm's 161 yards on 14 carries. Most of the yardage was on an 80 yarder that displayed Bluhm's speed. That still leaves 81 yards on 13 carries, a 6.2 average for those 13 carries. That's not a good sign if Marist should eventually meet Sherwood. Sherwood averages 9.6 yards per carry!!!!....
- Silver's passing stats were impressive, but seeing him in person, he was more impressive than typical gawdy high school stats. I've seen Marist three times this season. Silver was throwing darts when he needed to and he was hitting his deep receivers in stride. But his best pass might have been a second half pass when he threw a pass with just enough loft to get over the linebackers and yet dropped in on his receiver and not into the DB's hands.
- Silver's fielding was excellent. He scooped up several mis-snaps and either prevented the turnover or made something out of the play. Silver was a first team all league baseballer last spring. (Can't wait til baseball. There are a ton of good players locally.)
- Coach Geske said his Spartans were outhit. I don't know if it was because I was up in the stands rather than on the sidelines, but I did feel that there wasn't the intensity I saw in the other two Marist games I attended. Even some of the Marist fans around me were mentioning that they thought the Spartans were out of tune and lacking intensity. I said I agreed, but pointed out that the scoreboard said 30-6 during halftime.
- Had the Eagles passing game clicked, Marist might have been under some pressure. Eagle Point had a lot of wide open receivers and a lot of time to pass. But often times when Bluhm hit his receivers, they dropped the ball. And on other times the receiver was open and the ball was off just a little.
Marist hosts Parkrose
Ashland travels to Sherwood
Churchill travels to Wilsonville
Marist, Sherwood and Wilsonville are three of the four elite teams this year. Mountain View is the fourth. Jefferson always is ranked high, but they just aren't consistent enough to make it to the top of the mountain. (Although, Jeff made it to the finals last year.) In theory, Marist will crush Parkrose, Sherwood will crush Ashland and Wilsonville will crush Churchill.
- I think Marist will win easily, although Parkrose likes to score early and often.
- If either Ashland or Churchill is going to pull off the upset, I think it would be Churchill. I think Ashland is a better team than Churchill, but the Grizzlies are going to play a team that is simply amazing in their running game. Sherwood brings emotional tears to my 1950's eyes by jamming the ball down the opponents throats on the ground.
- Churchill gets to play Wilsonville, a team that is a little more balanced than Sherwood. Churchill should be able to put together a plan with hopes of slowing down Wilsonville. And Wilsonville is much more likely than Sherwood to give up points.
Final RPI humor
I like the RPI and seeding. It helps avoid matchups of clearly top teams until the quarters or even semis. There is still some fine tuning to do, but I think it is a big winner. Nevertheless:
Keep in mind these are playoff games and things are serious now:
W by 44 Marist RPI + 4
W by 35 Ashland -13
W by 15 Churchill + 8
L by 44 Eagle Point +13
L by 21 Springfield + 1
L by 31 Marshfield +14
L by 42 North Eugene +17
All teams that lost, gained in the RPI, although it doesn't matter to them. All losing teams were eliminated from the playoffs, so increasing their RPI doesn't matter. Ashland's loss of 13 RPI points really changed their playoff pairing. Had Ashland just broke even in RPI points, the Grizzlies would be rated 9th, not 13th.
Teams with hopes of going deep in the playoffs need to schedule tough non-league games during the regular season, knowing that a loss to a tough team is worth more RPI points than a win over a wimpy team. They also need to schedule a tough game during the first play-in week. The way the RPI works, a loss against a top team may increase your RPI.
Watch a Play Off game
If you've got a kid who will be returning next year, take him to a playoff game. Marist and Sheldon games would be great games to watch. If I were a coach of team that has been knocked out of the playoffs, I'd try and gather as many returning players as I could and go to a playoff game. I'll probably go to the Marist game this week. But I'm tempted to see Ashland at Sherwood. I saw Sherwood last year. They have the same great backs. I think the only way you beat Sherwood is by outscoring them. And I know Sherwood is going to be sitting on Scarmanich.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Mid-Willamette vs MWL 8, RPI & All Stars
Second Round Play-In Games
Five of the seven MWL 8 play-in games are against Mid-Willamette teams. The RPI system thinks the Mid-Willamette league is the SEC of Oregon.
Here's a breakdown of how the MWL compares:
League Finish Mid Will RPI MWL8 RPI
1 603 627 +24
2 602 568 -34
3 572 517 -55
4 547 496 -51
5 504 445 -59
6 437 437 0
7 397 363 -34
8 391 338 -53
If the Mid-Willamette League sweeps us, four of the five winner's RPI's are likely to go down. That would serve them right.
Interesting Play-In Notes:
The MVP discussions couldn't have taken too long. My vision is that the other coaches pulled a Saturday Night Live skit and bowed down and said, "We are not worthy." And then they let Marist coach Frank Geske squirm as he had to choose among Devereux, Mayes and Silver for the MVP spots. By the way the last lineman to win league MVP was, of course, a Pirate. Marshfield's Mike Beslisle pulled off the trick in 1997. Since then it's been five QB's, five RB's and two receivers. Link to MVP's since 1980
All in all, I thought the selections were very good. There were very few that made me scratch my head. I would have hoped a few more Highlanders would have made the team. Here's a breakdown:
Team 1st 2nd HM Total
Marist 10 8 5 23
Ashland 4 6 9 19
Eagle Point 4 3 8 15
Churchill 4 8 9 21
Springfield 3 1 6 10
Marshfield 1 3 5 9
Willamette 1 1 4 6
North Eugene 0 0 1 1
I'll be inputting the all league players on each teams section over the next few days. Let me know if I omit anyone or get some info/spelling wrong.
Five of the seven MWL 8 play-in games are against Mid-Willamette teams. The RPI system thinks the Mid-Willamette league is the SEC of Oregon.
Here's a breakdown of how the MWL compares:
League Finish Mid Will RPI MWL8 RPI
1 603 627 +24
2 602 568 -34
3 572 517 -55
4 547 496 -51
5 504 445 -59
6 437 437 0
7 397 363 -34
8 391 338 -53
If the Mid-Willamette League sweeps us, four of the five winner's RPI's are likely to go down. That would serve them right.
Interesting Play-In Notes:
- The only Mid-Willamette team that isn't playing a MWL 8 team is West Albany (5-3, 547 RPI) which travels to Bend (4-4, 552).
- The only MWL 6 team not to play a Mid Willamette team is Marist, who plays MWL 8 member Eagle Point. This boo-boo in scheduling has given speculation to:
- The MWL 8 could become an official league next year. That would be an appropriate adjustment to the new everyone in playoff system. Eagle Point, third in the MWL 8, ahead of five other MWL 8 teams, had to play a play in game. Three teams that finished below them in the MWL 8 had byes. Making the MWL 8 an official football league would also eliminate a second round game between to MWL 8 teams.
- Marist vs Eagle Point at Willamette High. Most people will think the outcome will be the same as when these two teams met four weeks ago. I think the Eagle's hope lies in finding a way for the Eagle line to control some part of the Marist D line. This is a tall order as they will be facing league MVP Matthew Devereux and league defensive MVP Logan Mayes. If Eagle Point can open some lanes for the backs to punch out a few yards, the Eagles can blend their running game with a crisp passing game. Defensively, Eagle Point won't stop Marist, but Marist has had a few games where they lost the ball several times.
- South Albany (2-7, 391 RPI) at Ashland (6-2, 568). I watched South Albany dispatch Willamette last week at Willamette. The Rebels running back Adam Schamp, #22, was too quick and way too fast for Willamette. Ashland's D is quick enough to slow down Schamp and Ashland's Scarmanich & Volz will control the ball effectively and receivers Lime, Dodds and Heater will find the soft spots.
- Silverton (4-4, 504 RPI) at Churchill (4-3, 496). Note that Silverton beat Springfield 35-28 in the season opener. Silverton has a 60:40 rush to pass ratio. They pound the ball at a little over 56 yards a carry. They have a 5'9" workhorse in #5, Troy Sinn. Sinn is the leading rusher, but at just 4.1 YPC. Joe Bochsler, #13, who doesn't get many carries, but averages 8.5 YPC, is the second leading rusher on the team. Quarterback Nic Reinhard has solid 94 qb rating. He's thrown 12 td passes versus just 3 interceptions. Silverton is much improved from their first game of the season against Springfield. Churchill will have their hands full. I don't think you'll see turnovers by Silverton. Churchill will have to play sharp. Turn over the ball and the Foxes will just pound it on the ground and control the clock and game. The Lancers filled 22 positions in the all league voting. They will all have to play like all leaguers to win this one.
- Lebanon (6-2, 572 RPI) at Springfield (3-5, 445). This is strictly the Air Force versus Army. Lebanon runs the ball 83% of the time! They average 6.6 YPC. Yikes! Springfield passes the ball 51% of the time. I say, let 'er rip. Hopefully, Lebanon won't be able to stop Levi Green's passing game. After all, Lebanon doesn't see much passing in their league. In Lebanon's favor is that Springfield didn't have any defensive players make all league lineman. Could be a high scoring game.
- Marshfield (3-5, 437 RPI) at Crescent Valley (6-2, 602). Crescent Valley runs the ball 70% of the time. Marshfield is about the same. The Raiders M.O. is to control the ball, slowly march down the field for a TD, then stuff the opponent. They don't go wild on offense, but they have scored at least 27 points in their last six games. Their defense has held their opponents to two or fewer TD's in the last five games. Marshfield's offense has gone wild twice this year, and they are due. The Pirates will see some smash-mouth football out or Crescent Valley, but if the Pirates explode, they might surprise the Raiders who don't usually strike quickly.
- North Eugene (1-8, 363 RPI) at Corvallis (6-2, 603). A true David versus Goliath game. Corvallis is a passing team according to Mid-Willamette standards, passing 35% of the time. Corvallis has really weird stats. The qb is very efficient in the td to int area, but only averages 11.8 yards per completion. They run the ball a lot, but only average 3.9 yards per carry due to quarterback sacks. The Highlanders are rightly a long shot. If the Highlanders can keep Corvallis from ripping off huge yards in their running game, they might keep themselves in the game and have a chance at the end.
The MVP discussions couldn't have taken too long. My vision is that the other coaches pulled a Saturday Night Live skit and bowed down and said, "We are not worthy." And then they let Marist coach Frank Geske squirm as he had to choose among Devereux, Mayes and Silver for the MVP spots. By the way the last lineman to win league MVP was, of course, a Pirate. Marshfield's Mike Beslisle pulled off the trick in 1997. Since then it's been five QB's, five RB's and two receivers. Link to MVP's since 1980
All in all, I thought the selections were very good. There were very few that made me scratch my head. I would have hoped a few more Highlanders would have made the team. Here's a breakdown:
Team 1st 2nd HM Total
Marist 10 8 5 23
Ashland 4 6 9 19
Eagle Point 4 3 8 15
Churchill 4 8 9 21
Springfield 3 1 6 10
Marshfield 1 3 5 9
Willamette 1 1 4 6
North Eugene 0 0 1 1
I'll be inputting the all league players on each teams section over the next few days. Let me know if I omit anyone or get some info/spelling wrong.
Monday, October 25, 2010
End Regular Season - RPI, Stats & Playoffs
My Honda Accord has passed on to Totaled Car Heaven. I picked up my check from a lifesize cardboard cutout of Flo, the TV spokeswoman for Progressive insurance. More about that later.
Funny RPI stuff.
Marist and Marshfield didn't play until Saturday. The RPI's were adjusted for all teams based on Friday night's results and before the Marist-Marshfield game. Marist dropped six points, while Marshfield gained eight points. Then Marist picked up a win at Marshfield. Road wins are worth more than home wins, so I thought Marist would at least break even in their RPI rating. Nope, Marist lost eight more points. Marshfield picked up 20 RPI points for the loss, a net gain of 28 for the weekend.
Marist Won on the road down 14
Ashland Won at home up 19
Eagle Point Lost on the road up 3
Churchill Won at home down 11
Marshfield Lost at home up 28
Springfield Won at home down 16
Willamette Lost on the road even
North Eugene Lost on the road down 2
Note that three winners lost RPI points. Two losers gained RPI points and one loser broke even.
All in all, I think the RPI is doing a fine job. There just aren't enough games against other leagues. At least the RPI and seeding will keep the top seeds from meeting before the quarterfinals. There are usually three or four very good teams in 5A. Then there are another few teams that could upset them by playing a great game and getting some breaks. But it will be rare for a 9 or lower seed to upset a top four seed.
Stats
Six teams have updated their MaxPreps stats with final regular season stats. North Eugene has five of seven games loaded into MaxPreps, while Marshfield doesn't use MaxPreps. My stats are a little more thorough than MaxPreps as I have been able to find some missing stats for North Eugene and Marshfield in the newspapers. For my stats go here. MaxPreps stats are more fun to play with however. You can slice them and dice them anyway you want, including specific games for individuals, and they even have a total yardage category (combining passing and rushing only). For MaxPreps stats go here.
Thomas Spikes won the rushing title with 1033 yards or 129 yards per game. His big outing of 305 yards against Eagle Point is what put him in first and allowed him to finish over 100 yards ahead of the second leading rusher.
Sophomore Kamerun Smith won the passing yardage title with 1777 yards and an average of 222 yards per game. Marist's Logan Silver was the only starting QB with a quarterback rating over 100. He crushed it at 127. Logan was second in league in both rushing and passing yardage, making him the league leader in total yardage at 2599 yards. That's 325 yards per game - for just one person. Yikes. Ashland's Jacob Scarmanich also broke 2000 yards. He totaled 2060 yards if you add his 148 yards receiving to his passing and rushing yards. [MaxPreps uses the NFL quarterback rating. I use the NCAA rating and have included Darren Thomas of the Ducks for compariston. Logan's rating is way ahead of Thomas's]
I have mentioned that it has been a fantastic year for quarterbacks several times this fall. Four quarterbacks finished with over 200 yards per game passing. And three of the others are over 200 yards per game of total yardage because of their good blend of running and passing abilities. That means that there had to be a lot of receivers with great stats. I've mentioned the receivers individually a lot this year. The leader at the end of the season is Springfield's John Davidson with 741 yards or 93 per game. Brandon Determan led the league in receptions with 51. Marist's Taylor Walcott (612 yds) was the only receiver to officially break 100 yards per game - 102. However teammate Austin Baird (635) averaged over 100 yards per game in the games he caught a pass. But he had one game (the game that Walcott returned after missing two and a half games) where he played but didn't catch a pass. Cameron Koehler (621) and Deaunte Brown (602) of Willamette were also in the exclusive 600 yard club.
Play-In and Play-Off
In case you haven't seen all of the matchups in one place
Reviewing my preseason prediction:
My official pre league prediction was made after the first round of non MWL 8 games. In the MWL 6, I had Marist and Churchill 1-2, even though Churchill didn't play the first week. I went with Willamette third, Springfield fourth, Marshfield fifth and North Eugene sixth. I was pretty close.
I thought Willamette was hurt hard by losing Danny Granillo, a two way first teamer in 2009. Granillo switched to tight end and was becoming a monster when he blew out his ACL during the second game against Springfield. Also, the Wolverines weren't helped by not having Jordan Visarraga at running back for most of their games.
Springfield took a second game hit with two way second teamer Kameron Bates blowing his ACL in the same game that Willamette's Granillo injured his. Neither of these teams has the depth of Marist to stay at a high level when they lose key players to injury. Marist, on other hand, lost three or four key players in the first game against Corvallis, and had players that acted like Terminator's and morphed into perfect replacements. In any event, I hate to see a player go down, especially in his senior year.
I ranked Ashland third in the MWL 8 in my pre-season guess. But I dropped Ashland hard to sixth after they lost to Klamath Union 14-7 and moved Eagle Point to third for my final prediction. Little did I know KU would turn out to be pretty good - they haven't lost to an Oregon team yet. Ashland Coach Hall must be smiling.
Flo and My Totaled Car
Flo is the female TV personality for Progressive Insurance. She's always dressed in white and wears the bright red lipstick. Flo is always talking about discounts. "More than one car - discount", "Motorcycle - discount", "Accident Free - discount"... Well add this - "Totaled Car - Discount". Very funny, Flo
Wife's birthday and Friday Night Football
I negotiated watching Sheldon at Thurston on TV while listening to Springfield and North Eugene, rather than leaving her at home and going to a game. Our second grade neighbor came over and helped me sing 'Happy Birthday' and I was good for the night. That was a close one.
Funny RPI stuff.
Marist and Marshfield didn't play until Saturday. The RPI's were adjusted for all teams based on Friday night's results and before the Marist-Marshfield game. Marist dropped six points, while Marshfield gained eight points. Then Marist picked up a win at Marshfield. Road wins are worth more than home wins, so I thought Marist would at least break even in their RPI rating. Nope, Marist lost eight more points. Marshfield picked up 20 RPI points for the loss, a net gain of 28 for the weekend.
Marist Won on the road down 14
Ashland Won at home up 19
Eagle Point Lost on the road up 3
Churchill Won at home down 11
Marshfield Lost at home up 28
Springfield Won at home down 16
Willamette Lost on the road even
North Eugene Lost on the road down 2
Note that three winners lost RPI points. Two losers gained RPI points and one loser broke even.
All in all, I think the RPI is doing a fine job. There just aren't enough games against other leagues. At least the RPI and seeding will keep the top seeds from meeting before the quarterfinals. There are usually three or four very good teams in 5A. Then there are another few teams that could upset them by playing a great game and getting some breaks. But it will be rare for a 9 or lower seed to upset a top four seed.
Stats
Six teams have updated their MaxPreps stats with final regular season stats. North Eugene has five of seven games loaded into MaxPreps, while Marshfield doesn't use MaxPreps. My stats are a little more thorough than MaxPreps as I have been able to find some missing stats for North Eugene and Marshfield in the newspapers. For my stats go here. MaxPreps stats are more fun to play with however. You can slice them and dice them anyway you want, including specific games for individuals, and they even have a total yardage category (combining passing and rushing only). For MaxPreps stats go here.
Thomas Spikes won the rushing title with 1033 yards or 129 yards per game. His big outing of 305 yards against Eagle Point is what put him in first and allowed him to finish over 100 yards ahead of the second leading rusher.
Sophomore Kamerun Smith won the passing yardage title with 1777 yards and an average of 222 yards per game. Marist's Logan Silver was the only starting QB with a quarterback rating over 100. He crushed it at 127. Logan was second in league in both rushing and passing yardage, making him the league leader in total yardage at 2599 yards. That's 325 yards per game - for just one person. Yikes. Ashland's Jacob Scarmanich also broke 2000 yards. He totaled 2060 yards if you add his 148 yards receiving to his passing and rushing yards. [MaxPreps uses the NFL quarterback rating. I use the NCAA rating and have included Darren Thomas of the Ducks for compariston. Logan's rating is way ahead of Thomas's]
I have mentioned that it has been a fantastic year for quarterbacks several times this fall. Four quarterbacks finished with over 200 yards per game passing. And three of the others are over 200 yards per game of total yardage because of their good blend of running and passing abilities. That means that there had to be a lot of receivers with great stats. I've mentioned the receivers individually a lot this year. The leader at the end of the season is Springfield's John Davidson with 741 yards or 93 per game. Brandon Determan led the league in receptions with 51. Marist's Taylor Walcott (612 yds) was the only receiver to officially break 100 yards per game - 102. However teammate Austin Baird (635) averaged over 100 yards per game in the games he caught a pass. But he had one game (the game that Walcott returned after missing two and a half games) where he played but didn't catch a pass. Cameron Koehler (621) and Deaunte Brown (602) of Willamette were also in the exclusive 600 yard club.
Play-In and Play-Off
In case you haven't seen all of the matchups in one place
- Winner of (Eagle Point at Dallas) at Marist (Marist traveled to Eagle Point earlier this fall)
- Winner (South Albany at Willamette) at Ashland (Ashland traveled to Willamette earlier this fall)
- Silverton at Churchill
- Lebanon at Springfield
- Marshfield at Crescent Valley
- Winner (North Eugene at Summit) at Corvallis
Reviewing my preseason prediction:
My official pre league prediction was made after the first round of non MWL 8 games. In the MWL 6, I had Marist and Churchill 1-2, even though Churchill didn't play the first week. I went with Willamette third, Springfield fourth, Marshfield fifth and North Eugene sixth. I was pretty close.
I thought Willamette was hurt hard by losing Danny Granillo, a two way first teamer in 2009. Granillo switched to tight end and was becoming a monster when he blew out his ACL during the second game against Springfield. Also, the Wolverines weren't helped by not having Jordan Visarraga at running back for most of their games.
Springfield took a second game hit with two way second teamer Kameron Bates blowing his ACL in the same game that Willamette's Granillo injured his. Neither of these teams has the depth of Marist to stay at a high level when they lose key players to injury. Marist, on other hand, lost three or four key players in the first game against Corvallis, and had players that acted like Terminator's and morphed into perfect replacements. In any event, I hate to see a player go down, especially in his senior year.
I ranked Ashland third in the MWL 8 in my pre-season guess. But I dropped Ashland hard to sixth after they lost to Klamath Union 14-7 and moved Eagle Point to third for my final prediction. Little did I know KU would turn out to be pretty good - they haven't lost to an Oregon team yet. Ashland Coach Hall must be smiling.
Flo and My Totaled Car
Flo is the female TV personality for Progressive Insurance. She's always dressed in white and wears the bright red lipstick. Flo is always talking about discounts. "More than one car - discount", "Motorcycle - discount", "Accident Free - discount"... Well add this - "Totaled Car - Discount". Very funny, Flo
Wife's birthday and Friday Night Football
I negotiated watching Sheldon at Thurston on TV while listening to Springfield and North Eugene, rather than leaving her at home and going to a game. Our second grade neighbor came over and helped me sing 'Happy Birthday' and I was good for the night. That was a close one.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Oct 22/23 Predictions
Haven't been quite on top of my website the last three days because I was rear ended (totaled my car) by (choose 1):
a) A U of O student who was texting
b) A parent who thought I should have mentioned his kid as a first team all leaguer
c) A bicyclist in downtown Eugene
Predictions:
MWL fans are outguessing me by a margin of 3 so far this season. I don't anticipate being able to close the gap this week because as of right now the fans and I are in total agreement about this week's games. I have a post on OregonLive's forum for folks to rig the fan poll so that fans lose and I win. I'm embarrassed that the fans are whipping me.
Eagle Point at Ashland.
This could be a fantastic game to watch.
Marist at Marshfield (North Bend)
The Spartans are marching to North Bend and won't get there until Saturday. So we'll have to wait til late Saturday or Sunday morning to get the final results and final RPI calculations. (There might be another RPI calculation after the five playin games. If there is, it won't affect the RPI much)
Anything can happen on the bay. It would be fantastic for the Marshfield program and seniors to pull this one out. Watch Marshfield's Ryan Scoville and Marist's Taylor Walcott. Both are explosive players. It should be no surprise to anyone as both of these players were in the state finals in the 100 meter dash (5A and 4A). It'll take a magic and well executed game plan for the Pirates to prevail. But if they can use RB's Scoville, John Davidson, Dallas Milburn and receivers Erin Griffin and Dalton Milburn effectively they have a chance. Even though Marshfield has yet to lose an official home game this season, I've got to go with the Spartans.
Willamette at Churchill.
The forecast is for rain, but don't expect rain to stop these two qb's from passing like crazy. Willamette soph Kamerun Smith leads the league in passing yardage. Churchill's Derek Godfrey is second in average per game behind Smith. Churchill would be favored even without rain, but rain plays even more into Churchill's hand. With running backs Aaron Ingram and Kingsley Nkwanta, they have proven they can rack up major ground yardage. That's something Willamette hasn't enjoyed, although Wolverine Skyler Mohr is a load to tackle. When the teams line up on O, always check where Churchill's Brandon Determan and Willamette's Cameron Koehler and Deaunte Brown are. If the ball goes in the air, it's likely to reach those guys and fireworks will follow.
Churchill wins this one, but enjoy some of the best receivers in the league.
North Eugene at Springfield
North Eugene's heartbreak kids get one more shot at victory in Springfield. Alex Wilson, one of my favorite receivers last year, has been an explosive RB and kick return man this year. His receiving duties have been successfully taken over by Colin Mender and junior Ryan Koth. Mender being the big play guy at 18 yards per catch. QB Dylan Lubonski is putting up respectable numbers (they'd be very good in most leagues).
Springfield's Levi Green has an outstanding quarterback rating and is racking up passing yardage (3rd in league). Springfield has the league's leading rusher in Thomas Spikes and the leading receiver in John Davidson. Springfield's Achilles heal has been it's defense. North is explosive enough to take advantage of the Miller D. Still the game is at Silke and if it's raining, Spikes can just pound it all night. I'm predicting Springfield.
Normally the last night of league is the end of the season for some teams, but everyone has at least one more game. Still, take some time to watch some of the players you don't normally follow - like lineman or DB's. It's fun to follow them on a play from beginning to end, and you'll learn to appreciate their efforts.
If I find a car by Friday night, I'm thinking of going to the Thurston-Sheldon game. However, my wife may not consider high school hamburgers a decent birthday dinner.
a) A U of O student who was texting
b) A parent who thought I should have mentioned his kid as a first team all leaguer
c) A bicyclist in downtown Eugene
Predictions:
MWL fans are outguessing me by a margin of 3 so far this season. I don't anticipate being able to close the gap this week because as of right now the fans and I are in total agreement about this week's games. I have a post on OregonLive's forum for folks to rig the fan poll so that fans lose and I win. I'm embarrassed that the fans are whipping me.
Eagle Point at Ashland.
This could be a fantastic game to watch.
- If Eagle Point can play like they did against Churchill.... starting the game with an unstoppable passing game and closing the game with an unstoppable running game. Eagle QB Shane Bluhm is fourth in state in total yardage at the 5A level. Eagle Aaron Foster is second in league in scoring, third in rushing and seventh in receiving. Garrett the Snowman is sixth in rushing and has hauled in 15 passes..
- If Ashland can continue to employ the two Jake qb set up and rack up huge chunks on the ground and air. Jake Scarmanich is second in state in total yardage. Receivers Dodds and Heater are ninth and tenth in league. RB Jackson Volz is tenth in league rushing.
Marist at Marshfield (North Bend)
The Spartans are marching to North Bend and won't get there until Saturday. So we'll have to wait til late Saturday or Sunday morning to get the final results and final RPI calculations. (There might be another RPI calculation after the five playin games. If there is, it won't affect the RPI much)
Anything can happen on the bay. It would be fantastic for the Marshfield program and seniors to pull this one out. Watch Marshfield's Ryan Scoville and Marist's Taylor Walcott. Both are explosive players. It should be no surprise to anyone as both of these players were in the state finals in the 100 meter dash (5A and 4A). It'll take a magic and well executed game plan for the Pirates to prevail. But if they can use RB's Scoville, John Davidson, Dallas Milburn and receivers Erin Griffin and Dalton Milburn effectively they have a chance. Even though Marshfield has yet to lose an official home game this season, I've got to go with the Spartans.
Willamette at Churchill.
The forecast is for rain, but don't expect rain to stop these two qb's from passing like crazy. Willamette soph Kamerun Smith leads the league in passing yardage. Churchill's Derek Godfrey is second in average per game behind Smith. Churchill would be favored even without rain, but rain plays even more into Churchill's hand. With running backs Aaron Ingram and Kingsley Nkwanta, they have proven they can rack up major ground yardage. That's something Willamette hasn't enjoyed, although Wolverine Skyler Mohr is a load to tackle. When the teams line up on O, always check where Churchill's Brandon Determan and Willamette's Cameron Koehler and Deaunte Brown are. If the ball goes in the air, it's likely to reach those guys and fireworks will follow.
Churchill wins this one, but enjoy some of the best receivers in the league.
North Eugene at Springfield
North Eugene's heartbreak kids get one more shot at victory in Springfield. Alex Wilson, one of my favorite receivers last year, has been an explosive RB and kick return man this year. His receiving duties have been successfully taken over by Colin Mender and junior Ryan Koth. Mender being the big play guy at 18 yards per catch. QB Dylan Lubonski is putting up respectable numbers (they'd be very good in most leagues).
Springfield's Levi Green has an outstanding quarterback rating and is racking up passing yardage (3rd in league). Springfield has the league's leading rusher in Thomas Spikes and the leading receiver in John Davidson. Springfield's Achilles heal has been it's defense. North is explosive enough to take advantage of the Miller D. Still the game is at Silke and if it's raining, Spikes can just pound it all night. I'm predicting Springfield.
Normally the last night of league is the end of the season for some teams, but everyone has at least one more game. Still, take some time to watch some of the players you don't normally follow - like lineman or DB's. It's fun to follow them on a play from beginning to end, and you'll learn to appreciate their efforts.
If I find a car by Friday night, I'm thinking of going to the Thurston-Sheldon game. However, my wife may not consider high school hamburgers a decent birthday dinner.
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