Thursday/Friday Predictions and halfway thoughts

QB's, Intensity, Predictions and How I Voted in the OregonLive.com poll

We are halfway through the regular season and we still don't know which teams are going to fight for the high playoff seeds. 

I've seen everyone except Willamette and Eagle Point, so I'm starting to get a feel for the teams.  I'll see Willamette Thursday against North Eugene and Eagle Point Friday at Marist.

There were two big questions before the season started.  Which quarterbacks would progress the fastest and furthest?  And would any teams step up in game intensity and conditioning to match Marsit?

Quarterbacks

Of the quarterbacks I've seen, I'd say that two of our MWL qb's are looking really good. Ashland's Danial White has shown he's special.  He's perfectly suited for Ashland's offense.  He runs, he passes and he doesn't make bad mistakes.  It's flat out fun watching the Grizzlies.  Marist's Kamerun Smith is getting dialed in.  He's thrown just one interception since the season opener against Corvallis. Smith might have seen his biggest regular season test in the opener against Corvallis, but he'll get some pressure the next three weeks from Eagle Point, Churchill and Willamette.  For some reason, I'm thinking Smith will get a lot of pressure from Willamette.  Smith's ratio of ten touchdown passes to one interception in league helps give him a college qb rating of 209.  He has room for improvement in completion percentage, but there's usually a trade off if you start forcing passes. 

Three other quarterbacks seem to be on the verge of breaking through and being consistently good.  Springfield's Britton Auxier, Willamette's Dusitn Leber, and Churchill's Mitch Reese.  Auxier has a college qb rating of 160.9 in three league games.  Considering that Auxier didn't throw any picks against Marist, and that he won't see the Spartans again, if ever, until at least the playoffs; he's probably going to be in the running for second in league passing yardage.  Auxier's stats against Marist suffered from several drops by receivers 'in the middle'.  I would have dropped them, too, the way Marist's James Banks was clobbering receivers.  Leber is completing a good percentage of his passes (58% in league) and racking up the yardage.  If he fine tunes his radar and reduces his INT's, we're going to watch the Wolverines explode -  as if they aren't scoring enough points.  Reese is completing 60 % of his passes in league play and has 4 td's to no interceptions.  Can't do much better than that, but the Lancers are one and two in league.  Interestingly, Reese has the most completions in league play, but not a lot of td passes to show for it.  Air Lancer just hasn't been able to consistently get long gainers our of their passing game.....  It takes a combination of a good qb, solid and consistent O-line play, and near perfect qb-receiver timing before a quarterback can settle in.  When teams get all three segments working all the time, the teams break out on O. I think you'll see at least two of these three teams put it together by playoffs.  Maybe all three.

I don't have much to go on for the other three qb's. I have stats from just two of Eagle Point's games and I won't see Eagle Point qb Jorge Quntero until this Friday. Quintero is one of two sophomore qb's in the MWL.  Ashland's White is the other soph. Quintero and Eagle Point have improved their offensive scoring output each game. Marist is up next, so the Eagles will find out if the improvement is long lasting..  Not sure about the Marshfield and North Eugene quarterbacks as I haven't seen any stats from either team.  But both quarterbacks ran their offenses well in the game I saw.

So it looks like the MWL are really coming along.  And we get to see all but Auxier return next year, along with some of the league's best receivers!

Conditioning & Intensity

I didn't share this with a lot of people last year.  But in my pre-season visits, after watching Marist work out in the weight room and on the field, I thought to myself - "It's all over for everyone else."  Not only did Marist have some physical beasts, but even the puniest player was doing miraculous things in the weightroom and then they'd be a baby beast on the practice field.  The baby beasts really rewarded coach Geske when they stepped up and covered for all of the early Marist injuries last season.

This year, Marist was up to the same old workout and practice routine, minus Mayes, Silver and Deveraux.  But I really noticed that other schools had ratcheted up their workouts.  Plus, I made my first ever visits to Ashland and Eagle Point, which impressed me.  Even with other school's improving their conditioning, Marist still has the edge.  What I think I'm seeing this year is that Marist's competitors are stronger than last year.  However, the stamina isn't up to Marist's level.  I notice the stamina and intensity issue mostly with Marist's defense.  From the get go in both Marist games I saw, the D started like they were shot out of canon's and never let up.  I think absorbing knock out blows from Marist from the first whistle takes other teams by surprise. Then it becomes a test of  Marist's opponent's mental game when the opponents realize that Marist keeps pounding and pounding play after play. (Oddly, Marist's offense has been a little lethargic out of the gates.  I find that odd because so many of Marist's players go two ways.  Maybe the two way guys love defense more.)

Predictions

Tonight.  Willamette over North Eugene.
Tonight will be my first look at Willamette.  I'm excited to see what the Leber-Visarraga- Crownover - York- Giles- Hatefi combo can do.  I'm particularly interested in the Wolverine line.  This will be my second peek at North.  I'm expecting them to show a little explosiveness and hopefully as much trickery as in the North-Marshfield game.

Friday with league records

Springfield (1-2)  at Churchill 1-2.
58% of MWL fans are going with Churchill. 
This is the game of the week.  I guess voters are going with home field advantage.  But I'm impressed with Auxier, Emerald, Price-Clark and crew from Springfield.  It's possible that the Millers don't show up mentally at Churchill after their disappointing loss to Maist, but if the Millers look at the 14 points they laid on Marist as a good thing, then Springfield should come out pumped.  Springfield can also think how Marist came out of the locker and blew the hinges off the door at Silke and start the Churchill game the way Marist started the game at Springfield.  Churchill will answer with lefty Mitch Reese and his receiving stable of Molinski, Bennion and Reid.  Have fun watching this game.
I'm giving MWL fans a chance to catch me on the season.  I'm going with Springfield.

Ashland (2-1) at Marshfield (1-2).
Two storied programs.  Will Ashland lay an egg on the coast like Eagle Point did in 2010?  I don't think so, Ashland's Coach Hall has a lot of respect for the Ashland-Marshfield rivalry.  Fun game to watch because Ashland is, well, just fun to watch.  And Marshfield's no huddle can score in a hurry.  I'm picking Ashland.

Eagle Point (2-1) at Marist (3-0).
This will be my first look at Eagle Point.  The Eagles looked pretty physical when I saw them practice in August.  It'll be interesting to see how they compare to Marist.  This will be my third Marist game.  I'm curious to see if the Spartan offense can come out on fire.
Have to go with Marist.

You can vote MWL fan poll

How I voted in the OregonLive.com poll

Here's how I voted followed by the OregonLive.com rank

1-1. Sherwood
2-2. Marist
3-3. Corvallis
4-6. Crescent Valley
5-5. Mountain View
6-4. Bend
7-7. Lebanon
8-8. West Albany
9-tie 9. Wilsonville
10-tie 9. Ashland

Watch list: Silverton, Hermiston, Willamette