- Opening day thoughts
- QB update
- 5A football poll
- Sept 9 predictions
The MWL is off to a pretty good start. Much better than 2010 when six teams went 1-5. Last year, Churchill played in a jamboree and North Eugene had a bye. This year's 4-3 record on opening day will be a huge improvement in all team's RPI this season. Even some of the losses could turn out to be good for the RPI if Mountain View and North Bend do well in their respective leagues, which they should.
Marist 16 Corvallis 14 at Corvallis.
I attended this game. My main two thoughts are
1) If you're thinking Marist should have won by more, think again. Corvallis is a very good team with a great offense and a tough defense. Corvallis has four players in the class of 2012 Oregon Top 100 list, while Marist has only Walcott.
Offensively for Corvallis, their QB was 21-33 passing. That's great, but he got too hungry for the big one and tossed two deep bombs into the end zone - to Taylor Walcott of Marist.
Corvallis's D was able to cover the deep pass, only giving up one long pass to Marist's Austin Baird, while picking off three passes. Corvallis also kept the Marist backs in check. Greg Park had a 22 yard run for Marist, but Covallis kept Park and James Banks from doing much damage the rest of the time.
2) If a MWL team is going to beat Marist, they better do it soon, because Marist won't be making as many mistakes in a few weeks. Marist travels to Ashland this Friday, where the Grizzlies could set a man-trap.
1) If you're thinking Marist should have won by more, think again. Corvallis is a very good team with a great offense and a tough defense. Corvallis has four players in the class of 2012 Oregon Top 100 list, while Marist has only Walcott.
Offensively for Corvallis, their QB was 21-33 passing. That's great, but he got too hungry for the big one and tossed two deep bombs into the end zone - to Taylor Walcott of Marist.
Corvallis's D was able to cover the deep pass, only giving up one long pass to Marist's Austin Baird, while picking off three passes. Corvallis also kept the Marist backs in check. Greg Park had a 22 yard run for Marist, but Covallis kept Park and James Banks from doing much damage the rest of the time.
2) If a MWL team is going to beat Marist, they better do it soon, because Marist won't be making as many mistakes in a few weeks. Marist travels to Ashland this Friday, where the Grizzlies could set a man-trap.
What about Marist?
Marist's receivers. Fuhgetaboutit. Kamerun Smith spread his passes evenly among Baird, Walcott and Josh Paiment while sneaking in a nine yard toss to Park. The most fun watching Marist receivers is when Baird is blocking for the other receivers. Baird doesn't care where he is on the field, he hunts down defenders, even if they already have a Marist receiver in their grasp. Baird will slam into the opponent and try and separate the opponent from his teammate. My camera takes 8 shots per second. I know if I don't see Baird in the first frame, I'll see him flying in by the last one. Baird looks like he is having too much fun.
Kamerun Smith at QB. 17 for 30 passing at a little over 11 yards per completion. Not bad for a first outing with his new team. And against a top 10 team. Best thing was that Smith kept his cool after three picks. Corvallis was constantly knocking at the door and had pulled within two with well over 11 minutes in the fourth quarter. A few minutes later, Smith connected with Baird on a bomb to put Marist in a first and goal situation. Marist didn't score on the drive, but the field position Marist gained on this drive is what ultimately won the game. It was good to watch Smith keep his cool. It's going to be fun watching Smith progress.
One personality trait that hasn't changed for Marist is their 'We are one' attitude. Somehow, Marist makes every player feel like a contributor, no matter how big or fast. Last year in the first game, three key players went down with injuries, and some of the replacements were about half the size of the starters. But the replacements played like animals and Marist still won. This year, injuries during the game weren't an issue, but the pressure put on by Corvallis was intense. Corvallis took four turnovers away from Marist and the Corvallis Qb seemingly could complete a pass at will; but when the play had to be made, someone from Marist always stepped up and you never knew who it would be. Everyone covered each others back.
As for the game.... It was very exciting and both lines and linebacker corps were going at it. Four turnovers by both sides on a perfect night. Neither coach could have liked their own number of turnovers. Even though Marist led throughout the game, It felt like Corvallis had gained the momentum when they scored 15 seconds into the fourth quarter to pull within 2. A few minutes later, Marist fumbled the ball away and Corvallis drove it down the field only to fumble it away with 1:56 left. Marist fans were hoping that Marist would put the game away. But Marist couldn't get out of their end of the field, getting pushed backwards to their 21 for a fourth and 14. Marist punted it to their own 40. Corvallis only needed a field goal, but Marist's Bennet Chiongbian picked off a fluttering pass to finally close the door.
I posted a picture of Taylor Walcott doing an Incredible Hulk imitation as Ausitn Baird was being dragged down after a 42 yard pass reception. Walcott had a game. Two picks in the endzone, a td reception and another TD off of an end around. I usually post a picture of a great play as soon as I get home, but there was something about Walcott being so happy for Baird (and the Marist team) that made me think I just had to post the picture. Plus, it's a horrible Incredible Hulk pose. I guess I owe Walcott a good photo.
Other MWL games
The convincing wins by Ashland , Churchill and Willamette didn't surprise me. However, Willamette scoring 67 points is an eye opener. Marshfield and Springfield losing wasn't a shock, but the scores were a little wider than I would have guessed. The big surprise was Eagle Point's 55-6 loss to Mountain View. We can expect every team in the MWL to take a few games to get their offense together as every team is working with a new QB, but I didn't think Mountain View could run up 55 points on the Eagles.
Willamette's Jordan Visarraga has been getting a little pre-season press for his defensive skills. Might want to check him out on O, too, after he gained 270 yards rushing and scored 4 td's. The Wolverines didn't have to go to the air much, but they still scored three times via air mail, including td's by Mitch Crownover and Zach Hatefi.
Springfield certainly had to be disappointed. Their big line was expected to lead the way against a tough Silverton team. We'll never know how good the Miller line could have been that game, though, as the Millers killed themselves with turnovers and drops; including three should-have-been tds.
Churchill's Air Lancer delivered nearly 20 yards per completed pass. But keep your eyes on a potentially much improved running game. Aaron Smith gained nearly 8 yards per carry, and soph Tyler Reid rushed ten times and gained over 12 yards per carry. Benson isn't Corvallis, but the Lancer linemen must have been clearing out some pretty big holes.
I don't have a feel for why Eagle Point struggled mightily against Mountain View. Maybe it's the 6' 3" Mountain View Hollister brothers, a qb-wr combo. Both guys are in the Top 100 list, along with an all world linebacker.
Ashland's qb Danial White was very efficient in his outing against Klamath Falls. The Grizzlies jumped out to a 33-0 lead in the second quarter after three and outs on their first two drives of the game.
Marshfield's loss to the Bulldogs has to hurt all that much more as they lost Tyler Johnson to a broken arm.
Quarterback review
All MWL teams have new QB's this year, with Marist's Kamerun Smith being the only QB who was a regular starter last year (but at Willamette).
Smith was 17-19 for 191 yards. He connected with Walcott for a td, but was picked three times. Earlier in this blog, I noted his fourth quarter poise. I think the Marist line is going to give Smith a lot of time to read the field, and as he learns how, he'll find the open receivers and drill the ball in when he needs to. MWL teams are hoping it's later than sooner.
Ashland's Danial White was 14-22 for 179 yards, threw three tds and ran for one. Add that to his early August performance in the Pacific Rim Bowl against Japan and White is looking good. However, Klamath Falls isn't Marist and Marist is up next for Ashland.
Willamette's Justin Leber was 12-20 for 202 yards with three td passes. Leber will be facing a lot higher competition in the MWL, but he might just do quite well if Willamette's running game stays in super high gear. Leber knows he can go to Crownover and Hatefi through the air if he needs to, but it would take a lot of pressure off of Leber if Visarraga and Dante Giles keep their running game going.
Churchill's southpaw Mitch Reese was 11-18 for 199 yards and two tds. He had a nice distribution of his passes among his wide receivers and rb's. Reese may become the qb surprise of the year.
Springfield split time between Ty Manilla (6-14, 63 yd) and Britton Auxier (4-14, 48 yd). Turnovers killed the Millers, so it's hard to get a read on the QBs. Manilla has a slight edge in passing, but Auxier had the better running game. Looks like things are leaning towards Manilla. Whoever starts Friday against Willamette needs his receiver's to come through.
Eagle Point. Didn't see any stats for Eagle Point. But the Eagles only racked up 86 yards in total offense against Mountain View, so there is probably not a lot of highlight film material for Churchill, the Eagles next opponent.
Marshfield's Jason Sweet was 10-22 for 120 yards and a touchdown pass against North Bend. The game experience should help this Friday, when the Pirates travel to North Eugene. North had a bye last week.
5A football poll
Wow. Four MWL teams received top ten votes and three were in the top 9. Marist took the number two spot, while Ashland and Churchill tied for 8th. Willamette picked up a couple of votes to finish 16th. Most of you know I vote in the OregonLive poll. I flip flopped Mountain View and Sherwood, moving Mountain View into first. I left Marist and Corvallis numbers 3 and 4 after Marist took a 2 point win from Corvallis. After that it was Bend, Wilsonville, Lebanon, Jefferson and West Albany. The two MWL teams I had on the edge of the top ten were Ashland and Churchill, but their opening wins were against some soft competition. Here's the OregonLive.com poll
September 9 Predictions
This might be the biggest weekend of the year. Later in the season, people will will have forgotten about this upcoming Friday; but Friday, September 9th is going to determine a lot of team's postseason fate.
Here's why. The matchups are pretty much even, with the projected top teams meeting each other, and the projected bottom four meeting each other. The top teams may decide their seed tonight and not even know it. On the other hand, the bottom teams could knock themselves out of the playoffs on Friday. That;s because the three lowest ranked teams from the 'Southern Region' will not make the playoffs. The Southern Region consists of the MWL, IMC (think Bend) , MWC (think Corvallis).
#1 Marist at #8 Ashland
Have to go with Marist. They are battle tested against a great team with several horses. Marist also has the speed factor. Unlike last year, though, Ashland has a solid chance. Note that Ashland came closest to beating Marist last year as far as MWL teams go.
#8 Churchill at Eagle Point
Going with Churchill. Churchill clobbered Benson, but Benson was only 1-8 last year, and I think Churchill got their number 8 ranking based on their storied tradition. That said, I really liked what I saw at Churchill's practice this week, so maybe this years Lancers are going to maintain the Air Lancer storyline. I haven't heard a thing about Eagle Point and reasons for the lopsided loss to Mountain View. There's the possibility that Mountain View is just lights out and can tear anyone apart. So we could have the case of Churchill not respecting Eagle Point because they got blown out, while Eagle Point figures out after a play or two that Churchill isn't a Mountain View. Hopefully, both teams will be focused and it will be a great game.
#16 Willamette at Springfield.
Willamette is my pick. Springfield killed themselves with turnovers last week. This week the Millers will stick with one quarterback and hopefully there will be some offensive continuity. On the other hand, Willamette looks like they have their offense well balanced between run and pass.
Marshfield at North Eugene
I'm going with the Pirates even with the loss of Tyler Johnson. North didn't play a game last week, and I think that'll be a disadvantage. The Pirates installed a no huddle offense last week and had some success with it. With a week to improve on their mistakes, that should give Marshfield enough to sneak by North Eugene. Plus, I'm going to the game. So I should give the Pirates good luck. Although, this 'watching the Pirates' hypothesis doesn't seem to work in baseball.
Don't forget to vote in the MWL fan polls. We'll be comparing fans to me, starting with league games.
My final and official league prediction.
I really felt confident about my 'Way to Early' polls until after last week's games. Churchill and Willamette blew out their opponents, but their opponents were soft. Eagle Point and Springfield got blown out, but their opponents are good, maybe excellent. So, I've lost my confidence, but it's time for the final prediction:
Final MWL 2011 League Prediction
1. Marist
2. Churchill
3. Ashland
4. Eagle Point
5. Willamette
6. Springfield
7. Marshfield
8. North Eugene
That's not too far off from my way-too-early poll. I switched up the 2-3-4 spots. I'm betting that Churchill will catch Eagle Point before they get it in gear for the season - game is in Eagle Point. Then Ashland travels to Churchill - a game I won't miss.
You can comment by using the comment icon on the blog or email me at mwlnow@yahoo.com
Willamette's Jordan Visarraga has been getting a little pre-season press for his defensive skills. Might want to check him out on O, too, after he gained 270 yards rushing and scored 4 td's. The Wolverines didn't have to go to the air much, but they still scored three times via air mail, including td's by Mitch Crownover and Zach Hatefi.
Springfield certainly had to be disappointed. Their big line was expected to lead the way against a tough Silverton team. We'll never know how good the Miller line could have been that game, though, as the Millers killed themselves with turnovers and drops; including three should-have-been tds.
Churchill's Air Lancer delivered nearly 20 yards per completed pass. But keep your eyes on a potentially much improved running game. Aaron Smith gained nearly 8 yards per carry, and soph Tyler Reid rushed ten times and gained over 12 yards per carry. Benson isn't Corvallis, but the Lancer linemen must have been clearing out some pretty big holes.
I don't have a feel for why Eagle Point struggled mightily against Mountain View. Maybe it's the 6' 3" Mountain View Hollister brothers, a qb-wr combo. Both guys are in the Top 100 list, along with an all world linebacker.
Ashland's qb Danial White was very efficient in his outing against Klamath Falls. The Grizzlies jumped out to a 33-0 lead in the second quarter after three and outs on their first two drives of the game.
Marshfield's loss to the Bulldogs has to hurt all that much more as they lost Tyler Johnson to a broken arm.
Quarterback review
All MWL teams have new QB's this year, with Marist's Kamerun Smith being the only QB who was a regular starter last year (but at Willamette).
Smith was 17-19 for 191 yards. He connected with Walcott for a td, but was picked three times. Earlier in this blog, I noted his fourth quarter poise. I think the Marist line is going to give Smith a lot of time to read the field, and as he learns how, he'll find the open receivers and drill the ball in when he needs to. MWL teams are hoping it's later than sooner.
Ashland's Danial White was 14-22 for 179 yards, threw three tds and ran for one. Add that to his early August performance in the Pacific Rim Bowl against Japan and White is looking good. However, Klamath Falls isn't Marist and Marist is up next for Ashland.
Willamette's Justin Leber was 12-20 for 202 yards with three td passes. Leber will be facing a lot higher competition in the MWL, but he might just do quite well if Willamette's running game stays in super high gear. Leber knows he can go to Crownover and Hatefi through the air if he needs to, but it would take a lot of pressure off of Leber if Visarraga and Dante Giles keep their running game going.
Churchill's southpaw Mitch Reese was 11-18 for 199 yards and two tds. He had a nice distribution of his passes among his wide receivers and rb's. Reese may become the qb surprise of the year.
Springfield split time between Ty Manilla (6-14, 63 yd) and Britton Auxier (4-14, 48 yd). Turnovers killed the Millers, so it's hard to get a read on the QBs. Manilla has a slight edge in passing, but Auxier had the better running game. Looks like things are leaning towards Manilla. Whoever starts Friday against Willamette needs his receiver's to come through.
Eagle Point. Didn't see any stats for Eagle Point. But the Eagles only racked up 86 yards in total offense against Mountain View, so there is probably not a lot of highlight film material for Churchill, the Eagles next opponent.
Marshfield's Jason Sweet was 10-22 for 120 yards and a touchdown pass against North Bend. The game experience should help this Friday, when the Pirates travel to North Eugene. North had a bye last week.
5A football poll
Wow. Four MWL teams received top ten votes and three were in the top 9. Marist took the number two spot, while Ashland and Churchill tied for 8th. Willamette picked up a couple of votes to finish 16th. Most of you know I vote in the OregonLive poll. I flip flopped Mountain View and Sherwood, moving Mountain View into first. I left Marist and Corvallis numbers 3 and 4 after Marist took a 2 point win from Corvallis. After that it was Bend, Wilsonville, Lebanon, Jefferson and West Albany. The two MWL teams I had on the edge of the top ten were Ashland and Churchill, but their opening wins were against some soft competition. Here's the OregonLive.com poll
September 9 Predictions
This might be the biggest weekend of the year. Later in the season, people will will have forgotten about this upcoming Friday; but Friday, September 9th is going to determine a lot of team's postseason fate.
Here's why. The matchups are pretty much even, with the projected top teams meeting each other, and the projected bottom four meeting each other. The top teams may decide their seed tonight and not even know it. On the other hand, the bottom teams could knock themselves out of the playoffs on Friday. That;s because the three lowest ranked teams from the 'Southern Region' will not make the playoffs. The Southern Region consists of the MWL, IMC (think Bend) , MWC (think Corvallis).
#1 Marist at #8 Ashland
Have to go with Marist. They are battle tested against a great team with several horses. Marist also has the speed factor. Unlike last year, though, Ashland has a solid chance. Note that Ashland came closest to beating Marist last year as far as MWL teams go.
#8 Churchill at Eagle Point
Going with Churchill. Churchill clobbered Benson, but Benson was only 1-8 last year, and I think Churchill got their number 8 ranking based on their storied tradition. That said, I really liked what I saw at Churchill's practice this week, so maybe this years Lancers are going to maintain the Air Lancer storyline. I haven't heard a thing about Eagle Point and reasons for the lopsided loss to Mountain View. There's the possibility that Mountain View is just lights out and can tear anyone apart. So we could have the case of Churchill not respecting Eagle Point because they got blown out, while Eagle Point figures out after a play or two that Churchill isn't a Mountain View. Hopefully, both teams will be focused and it will be a great game.
#16 Willamette at Springfield.
Willamette is my pick. Springfield killed themselves with turnovers last week. This week the Millers will stick with one quarterback and hopefully there will be some offensive continuity. On the other hand, Willamette looks like they have their offense well balanced between run and pass.
Marshfield at North Eugene
I'm going with the Pirates even with the loss of Tyler Johnson. North didn't play a game last week, and I think that'll be a disadvantage. The Pirates installed a no huddle offense last week and had some success with it. With a week to improve on their mistakes, that should give Marshfield enough to sneak by North Eugene. Plus, I'm going to the game. So I should give the Pirates good luck. Although, this 'watching the Pirates' hypothesis doesn't seem to work in baseball.
Don't forget to vote in the MWL fan polls. We'll be comparing fans to me, starting with league games.
My final and official league prediction.
I really felt confident about my 'Way to Early' polls until after last week's games. Churchill and Willamette blew out their opponents, but their opponents were soft. Eagle Point and Springfield got blown out, but their opponents are good, maybe excellent. So, I've lost my confidence, but it's time for the final prediction:
Final MWL 2011 League Prediction
1. Marist
2. Churchill
3. Ashland
4. Eagle Point
5. Willamette
6. Springfield
7. Marshfield
8. North Eugene
That's not too far off from my way-too-early poll. I switched up the 2-3-4 spots. I'm betting that Churchill will catch Eagle Point before they get it in gear for the season - game is in Eagle Point. Then Ashland travels to Churchill - a game I won't miss.
You can comment by using the comment icon on the blog or email me at mwlnow@yahoo.com
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