Marist-Sherwood. Oh, so close!

The words Coach Geske spoke to me last August came back to me when Taylor Walcott left the game in the second quarter.  I had just finished watching a practice and weight room workout on a hot August day.  When I left the weight room, I knew that no team in the MWL was going to touch Marist.  Then I watched them practice on the field, and I knew they were in late season form already.

Coach Geske knew he had a special group.  His words were "We have the talent and work ethic to make it to the finals, but we're not very deep." 

Walcott joins Park on injury list.

So when Walcott joined running back Greg Park on the sideline I figured it was lights out for Marist.  Marist had been playing without Park for several playoff games.  And while Logan Silver has been spectacular on the ground during the playoffs, it was getting more and more evident, playoff quarter by playoff quarter, that Marist was going to ride Silver's legs and arm all the way. 

Walcott's departure cut Silvers's passing options from three great receivers (Walcott, Baird and Paiement) to two.  And Walcott was the one with the most speed.    That added even more pressure on Silver's running game.  I was also expecting a Steven Long explosion in the second half, as Walcott was the only Spartan able to catch  Long on those 40 and 50 yard breakaways.

Spartans Rise to the Challenge.

Marist had obviously been in a personnel jam before.  Starting with the first game of 2009 and recovering nicely.  Then the first game of 2010.  Then the Park injury in the playoffs.  But none of the opponents were Sherwood.  Nevertheless, when Sherwood should have been exploding by Marist, the opposite happened.  Marist dug itself out of a 16-3 fourth quarter hole, to tie it up 16-16 with 7:00 minutes to go.  The game had finally turned into the match everyone expected.  The hitting on the field was incredibly hard. 

Sherwood responded with an 86 yard drive, led by Michael Balfour and Steven Long to go  up 23-16 with just 3:15 left on the clock.  Marist wasn't going to let it get away that easy and marched 81 yards to tie the game.  Sherwood penalties and three passes to Baird and one to Josh Harper were the keys to Marists drive to tie the game at 0:27.  Believe it or not, both teams had a shot at the end zone in the final 27 seconds.

Final Thoughts

I have to acknowledge the efforts of each and every Spartan after Walcott left the game.  The mountain looked huge at the beginning of the fourth quarter, and Marist was playing without the fastest man on the field for either team.  I don't know that many teams could have manned up like Marist did.

We'll never know if Marist would have been state champs with Park and Walcott in the final.  You can't judge by the way this game was played.  Sherwood would have planned differently for Park, whose presence would have taken a ton of pressure off of Silver.  But we do know that the Marist players can live the rest of their lives knowing, not just believing, that each individual is very important and will come through as needed when the going gets tough if you've worked hard and prepared as a team.

Interesting Game Tidbits

• Some OregonLive.com forum members said the game was the best high school football game they've ever seen.  I loved the fourth quarter, but the first three were torture.  All those penalties on both teams.  Yikes.  Neither team could get into the flow of their offense.  
• The Sherwood crowd was booing the officiating crew relentlessly.  But it was clear the Sherwood players couldn't handle the Marist D line and linebackers.  An old midwest college philosophy from the 70's is to keep on holding if you are an explosive running team.  So what if you lose ten yards for holding after you've gained five or ten?  You get the down over.  And eventually the officials get tired of calling the penalties and they aren't going to see all of them anyway.  
• Hats off to Sherwood's pass D.  That was the difference in the game.  Great job by the Sherwood D line.  Silver's passing efficiency was 56 for the game.  His prior low was 96 and that was early in the season when he was starting the switch from running back to quarterback.  
• The hitting in the game was hard and constant from whistle to whistle.  It was hard to get into the game as a fan because of the 28 penalties, but when I looked at my photos when I got home, I was happy to see that players on both sides were just hammering each other every play.  Two great teams with players who went hard every play and didn't stop til the whistle.
• The flags on the flag poles at both ends of the field were being blown hard in opposite directions. Early in the  first quarter Sherwood's long snapper hiked the ball way over the punters head. The punter chased it down, kept his cool, and pooch kicked it just to get a few yards back. But instead of a short punt, the ball rode the 30 knot updraft towards Old Glory at the west end of the field, then the ball was blown all the way to the Marist 4. A 50 yard punt, but actually much longer because the punter had to run back a long way to get the ball.  Later, with 32 seconds left in the second quarter Sherwood kicked a 39 yard field goal towards the State of Oregon flag in the east end zone.  It would have been good from 60 as the wind was howling towards the west at that end of the stadium. 
• After not scoring a touchdown the first three quarters, Marist scored on three straight drives in the fourth quarter. (I had these plays in the wrong order in my original post)
• Sherwood's fans sure were fun.  (Okay, I wouldn't give them a passing grade for sportsmanship because of their treatment of the officials)  They seemed to have a family there for each of the 1278 students in their school and they knew how to make some noise.  I loved their cheers and overall loud and noisy support of their team, including the 'Booooooo' when the leading tackler for both teams, Trent Duppenthaler had his name called.  Actually, it was a 'Dooooo'. (Update to blog.  Someone texted me and said it was pronounced 'Duuuuppe'.  Good enough for me)

On to baseball.

That's about it for this year.  I'll take a few months off and get ready for baseball.  I will post all state players when they are printed and I'll probably make some wild MWL prediction for next fall before I start the conversion to baseball.

Good Luck to all of the seniors.  Marist guys, take off the next nine months.  The rest of you, get back in the weight room.  Close the gap on those Spartans!
Gary

State Finals - Marist or Sherwood

Finally, we get to the game everyone has been waiting for since before the season started.  Yes, both teams are that much better than everyone else. 

• Both teams strong recent history
• Marist won state '03, '05, '07, '09
• Sherwood 2 finals, 1 semi, 2 quarters since '04
• Both teams loaded with seniors
• Sherwood has 23
• Marist has 19
• Many seniors on both teams had significant playing time in playoffs last year
• "Bigger, Faster, Stronger" isn't just a cliche to these teams.  If you've team has played them, you know.
• Fast paced, wear you down offenses.
• Sherwood's hard to read, hard to stay on your assignment 'Wing'
• All world Sherwood backs.  Cannonball 6'0", 220 lb Michael Balfour is good for 10.8 yards per carry.  Perhaps even more dangerous is 5'7"
• Steven Long, who is good for 11.4 YPC. 
• There are several other backs with huge yardage, but keep your eye on rising star sophomore Cristian Morris.  He had around 100 yards against Ashland and Jefferson in the playoffs. 
• Marist's 'Where is Logan now?  Oh, no! He passed it." offense
• The ball handlers get the glory, but they would be nowhere without their killer O lines.
• Watch Sherwoods pulling linemen and notice when their linemen go in the opposite direction as the carrier.  That's USC stuff.  (Hopefully, this year's USC) Hard to read that kind of blocking.
• Marist's entire line was all league:  Seniors Matthew Devereux (league MVP), Logan Mayes (league D MVP) and center Chris Bender.  Juniors Mitch Olive and Paxton Miller.  All league receivers Taylor Walcott, Austin Baird and Josh Paiement can thank these linemen for giving Logan Silver time to pass.  They can thank Logan, too, for his scrambling.
• Both teams have stellar Defenses.
• Sherwood has held Ashland to 14, Jefferson to 13 and Mt. View to 22 in the playoffs.
• Marist traveled an easier road in the playoffs.  Still they only gave up 6, 7 and 22 points. 
• Devereux, Miller and another all leaguer, senior Kevin Haskin anchor the Spartan D line.  Mayes, officially a linebacker, moves position often, playing the edges a lot and messing up the qb.  A ton will ride on LB Will Swindling.  Teams have tested his side to side skills a lot - to no avail. Swindling was an all leaguer along with the third linebacker, senior Carson Keiswetter.  You should hear the DB's names called a lot when Sherwood goes to the air.  Seniors Ryan Inouye, Matt Beattie, Brady Chionbian and Riley Kulm were all all-league.  All season long I thought those DB names were pretty cool to pronounce.   
• Both teams have incredible coaching.  I don't think either team will win because the coaches were outcoached or because the coaches didn't motivate their team.  Geske and Sherwood coach Greg Lawrence have been in the playoffs far too often to not have their teams ready.
• Motivation
• Sherwood's 23 seniors have been marching steadily to a state title.  As sophomores they lost in the quarterfinals.  As juniors, they lost in the semifinals to Jefferson, 23-26. Now they are in the finals.
• Marist's 19 seniors have something to prove.  After last year's undefeated state title, the thinking was that Marist had an incredible senior class and a very strong junior class.  The combination was unstoppable.  The 2010 Marist version was going to have a few superstars, but the team probably wasn't deep enough to take it all.  We'll find out this Saturday and maybe next year we''ll be saying, "That 2010 team had a bunch of senior studs and the junior class was really strong, but they can't repeat it again."

The game

Sherwood has been ranked number one all year.  The thinking goes like this:

1) Sherwood runs the wing offense with such power, precision and misdirection that it is impossible to stop. Lining up in the wing formation basically gives a team 9 blockers, with one of the running/blocking backs in motion building up steam.  Sherwood's backs are fantastic blockers.

2) Running backs Balfour and Long are super-duper-fantastic. And they are.  Balfour pounds and Long jukes and puts on the jets.  Sherwoods' other backs would be star running backs on most teams.

3) Defensive ends will eventually crash down on the qb too much, and Sherwood will rip off a 40 yard cutback run; or the linebackers and db's will creep up over time and Sherwood's qb Jordan Ramp will pass the ball to Long or another all alone receiver for a long gainer.

4) Sherwood's defense is excellent.

Sherwood fans have to be thinking this is the year.  Looking at Marist's stats, it is easy to conclude that all a team has to do to beat Marist is to stop Silver.

Here's what I'm thinking.

Sherwood's offense is truly fantastic.  Mt. View had a good handle on Sherwood and still gave up 42 points.  Marist's front three (or four) will be able to stuff the run often.  But I don't think that high school players can go an entire game being disciplined enough to play their assignment or avoid chasing the quarterback from the backside and opening up their gap for the 10 yard gains.  I can still envision good college players chasing Dennis Dixon too far, only to have Dixon cut some other way or hand the ball off to a back heading right to where the lineman/LB had just left and opened up a hole.

But so is Marist's offense truly fantastic.  If you watched the Mountain View - Sherwood game, you might have noticed that Mountain View had a lot of opportunities to convert mid to long passes, but just didn't connect.  You expect a qb-receiver combo to go an entire game with a few drops, but Mountain View had far too many missed chances.   Mountain View's unconverted opportunities through the air give me hope that Marist can pass the ball.  Passing the ball successfully opens the running game for Marist.

My biggest concern for Marist is if the three defensive down linemen can last the entire game against Sherwood's line.  All three players go both ways most of the time.  I'm hoping they realize it's their last game this year and they don't have to save anything.

 My thinking brain says Sherwood should win this in a close one with both teams breaking down the other team's defense.  I don't think either team should climb into the 40 point range because both teams should have several scoring drives, thus keeping the score balanced.  39-35 wouldn't surprise me.

But I'm going with Marist.  I've seen coach Geske make a lot of adjustments this year.  From losing Paiement at qb, to getting Paiement back as a receiver, to losing Greg Park for the playoffs. I don't recall seeing much trickery on offense or fancy stuff on special teams.  Maybe we'll see something if it's tight.  Who knows?  I just know for sure that these are the two best 5A teams in Oregon who are going to go at each other in different fashions.  It's going to be fun!!!

Any Duck or Beaver fans out there?  Or soon to be Coug fans?

If you are a sports news junkie, here's a new site for you to get updates about your team all day long.  The site posts tons of articles from various newspapers and websites.  It's pretty wild this week with the Civil War and Apple Cup.  You can even have the links Tweeted to  you.

Oregon Duck Football
Oregon State Beaver Football
Washington State Football

Go Ducks!  Go Cougs!  Go Spartans!!!!!!

Marist vs Crescent Valley

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Should Marist beat Crescent Valley?  Yes.

Could Crescent Valley beat Marist? Yes.  Of course, a lot needs to go Crescent Valley's way. 

Crescent Vally does one thing on offense and they do it well.  They run the ball.  They are on the ground 71% of the time.  Over half of the carries by the Raiders have been by 5' 7", 180 lb senior Andrew Oglesby.  He's been good for over 1,500 yards on the ground.  And no one else on the team is close to those numbers.

The passing game, such that it is, has produced 12 touchdowns against 5 interceptions out of junior quarterback Chase Cochran.  All-World freshman, 6' 4" Tanner Sanders, has a third of the Raiders catches and a third of their yards through the air.  Sanders is the real deal.  He's a big yardage receiver.

So, what's to like about the Crescent Valley offense?  When a team focuses on one thing they can do it very, very well.  If the Raiders can be successful with the run against Marist, they can control the clock and keep the Marist scoring machine off the field.  If the Raiders can run, Marist better not get out of the blocks slowly like they did last week (first td excepted) against Lebanon.  You don't want to get behind against a team that is successful on the ground and can control the clock and time of possession.  I also like the fact that they have the frosh Sanders to go to through the air in the event the ground game isn't effective or if Marist starts overplaying the run.  I'm expecting to see the tall Sanders in the middle secondary of Marist's D.

Crescent Vally has been an on/off team on defense.  They've held eight of their opponents to two touchdowns or less. On the other hand, they've given up four to five touchdowns to four opponents.  Nothing in between.  The Raider defense is led by 6' 0", 215 lb senior linebacker Kyle Garnder.  Garner is an animal with over 11 tackles per game.  Does Marist game plan to run away from him, take him on or try and confuse him with misdirection?  I'm guessing that the Spartans will work away from him.

I think Marist's offense and defense are too quick for the Raiders.  It's going to be another slugfest in the trenches this week, but I don't think Crescent Vally has the wheels to get around the corner and the Marist linebackers and db's won't allow the big breakaway up the middle. I also think that Crescent Valley will eventually have to go to the frosh Sanders through the air.  Sanders is likely to have some success against the shorter Spartans, but if the Raiders have to go to the air a lot, they are also looking at some picks.

So should Marist win it? Yes.  Could Crescent Valley upset the Spartans?  Yes.  A consistent grinding ground game and a few long passes to Sanders and the Raiders are in the game.  Hopefully, Marist comes out fired up at the start of the Crescent Valley game like they did in the second half against Lebanon.  It was okay to come out and be methodical in execution during league, but they need to use that intensity we saw in the second half last week if the Spartans want to make it to the finals.

MWL Alums in college and pros

I put out a call for former mwl players who went on to play football in college and pro ball.  It looks like at least 5 Spartans are currently playing college ball.  They are playing for Boise State, Oregon, Oregon State, Montana State and Portland State.  Churchill has at least two. Both at Oregon.  Let me know if I'm missing any.  And it's okay to go back in time.  I usually do my college and pro page maintenance in the off season, so the timing to gather the info is perfect.  I'll set up a section for Ashland and Eagle Point if I get some info.   College player link.  Pro Player link.

Current poll.

The fan voting poll currently shows 69% of fans think Marist is going to win and 80% think Sherwood is going to win. 

Happy Thanksgiving.  I just found out that by brother is bringing three guests from France to Thanksgiving dinner.  And they are staying over night Thursday.  My wife didn't faint!

Marist - C Valley and Lebanon, Air Lancer

Last week I wrote that Lebanon might be having dreams about the possibility of beating Marist.  At the game, I barely had time to put on my gloves to warm my freezing hands, when Silver hit Walcott on a 62 yard td bomb.  Then;

• Lebanon ate up six and a half minutes on thier first series, but missed a field goal. 
• Marist scored quickly and I thought the Lebanon dream was going to be a nightmare.  
• But Lebanon came on strong and pulled within 14-6 early in the second quarter.
• Marist answered quickly, to go up 20-6 with ten minutes left in the second quarter. 
• However, Lebanon then outplayed Marist the rest of the quarter, but stalled out deep in Marist territory right before the half.  After three incomplete passes from the 8, Lebanon attempted a short field goal, but missed.  

Even though Lebanon was down 20-6 at half, they had exploited the Spartan secondary and had a good running combo going in qb Duerr and rb Privatsky.  If they had made their field goals, it would have been 20-12.  I didn't like the way Lebanon was playing their 3-4 D, but it was working.  I thought the Lebanon linebackers were playing way too deep, which would open the door for Marist's running game. On the other hand, Lebanon picked Silver in the first half, which is a rarity.

Second half adjustments.  For the first time all year, Marist ran onto the field like wild banshees.  Marist inserted Walcott into the defensive secondary and was rewarded with a Walcott pick on the first Lebanon series.  Marist's D line picked it up a level or three. Mayes was particularly impressive.  No mercy for Duerr, the Warrior qb. Eventually he was knocked out of the game for a couple of possessions.  Game over.  Marist scored 21 points in the third quarter.

My mind was thinking it was funny watching Lebanon try to go side to side so much.  Trying the corner a few times is okay, but after you've been repeatedly held to no gains or losses, try something else.  It looked like Lebanon was giving Marist's Will Swindling a SPARQ's side to side shuttle test for 48 minutes.  He passed every time.

Coach Greske showed a couple of things for the scouts to think about:

• Chiongbian took two handoffs, his only two carries of the game, to the endzone.  Last week, Silver was the only rusher while the first string was in.
• Going for the jugular with the 62 yd td pass to Walcott on the second play of the game has to go into a scout notebook.  The notebook entry should say "No time to get the feel of the opponent".

Two coolest plays of the game.  A scramblerooskie by Silver on 4th and 12 early in the second quarter.  Silver juked and jived to buy enough time for Paiement to get open for an 18 yard pass.  The other coolest play was a catch by Austin Baird going out of bounds late in the second quarter.  It would have been a highlight reel catch - 45 yards through the air from Silver, Baird tight roping the sidelines, adjusting to the ball in flight, fully laying out, ignoring the defender's bump, and catching the ball before crash landing..... out of  bounds. Darn.   Okay, Mayes pounding the qb over and over was great, but something about the crunch factor disqualifies the hits from being the 'coolest'.  Need another term for crunching qbs.

The reality of the game was that Lebanon was the three seed from their conference.  You've got to be in the elite category to play with Marist.

Crescent Valley.  A 6'4", 185 pound freshman wide receiver,Tanner Sanders, is why the Raiders are still in the playoffs. He caught a key pass in a play-in game that put CV into the lead late in the game against The Dalles-Wahtonka.  I mention this so you'll remember his name in basketball season and to remind you that CV can pass the ball, even though they run far more often then they pass.

While not a statewide elite team like Sherwood, Marist, Mountain View, Jefferson and Wilsonville, Crescent Valley is from the smash mouth Mid-Willamette league that includes Lebanon.  They'll be deeper in personnel, talent and size than Lebanon.  EArlier I noted that had Lebanon made their first half field goals, they would have been in a 20-12 game at halftime. Crescent Valley should be better than that.  Also, keep in mind that Crescent Valley scored 63 points against Churchill last week on a sloppy field.  That's a lot of points.

Will Churchill fans be rooting for Crescent Valley?

Churchill alum Tim Euhus is the offensive coordinator for CV.  That sets up a match up of former NFL player Euhus against former Portland State assistant coach Frank Geske. Let me think.... NFL versus college.  Does Geske have a chance?

Churchill's Great Season

I'm a dinosaur.  My bones tell me that football should be played on grass.  Or mud, if it rains.  When I played ball, passing was almost cheating.  Passing was definitely not macho.  The trenches were where it was at.  But I've had a receiver and qb in my family this decade and I sure like the excitement of the big play through the air.  So I was sad to see the Churchill - CV game played on grass, in sloppy conditions.  In the year 1999, I watched my Sheldon boys lose one in soup at Jefferson.  Passing was impossible.  Fortunately, the next year was when Sheldon and the 4j schools put in artificial turf.  That led to a state quarterfinal, then a state runner up and the next year a championship.

Churchill cut a 20-29 halftime deficit to 27-29 46 seconds into the second half on a Godfrey to Savelich 68 yarder.  Godfrey threw for 286 yards and two tds.   Ingram ran for 199 yards and 4 tds.  A good finish for these seniors.  Remember Tanner Sanders, the Crescent Valley freshman I mentioned earlier for his efforts against the Dalles-Wahtonka?  Against Churchill, he caught a td pass off of a fake field goal attempt and intercepted a pass for a 44 yd pick six.  Marist fans should get ready for Sanders, running back Andre Oglesby and qb Chase Cochran.  They torched Marshfield with 44 points and Churchill with 63 points.  As good as Oglesby is, I don't think he has the speed to get by the Marist linebackers.

Baseball 


Baseball?  A lot of people are probably moving on to other sports or graduation.   But before you move on, please let me know if any of your football players are also baseball players.  I maintain a baseball site, too.  Ashland and Eagle Point won't be in the MWL league for baseball, but I still want to track their baseball players.  I'm not familiar with Eagle Point baseball, but Ashland's qb Jake Scarmanich and Brady Thomas played in the state championship game against North Eugene.  Any Eagle football players projected to play baseball?  Email me at mwlnow@yahoom.com.

Pros in NFL/CFL football

Does your team have any former players who went onto the NFL or CFL?  Let me know if I don't have them on my list.  I think Chad Cota was from Ashland?  Anyway, let me know.  Here's what I have in my initial attempt MWL players in the NFL/CFL

MWL alums playing football in college

I also maintain a list of players who have gone on to play college ball.  I try to keep it to D-I players, but we can fudge a little.  MWL alums who played in college Go back in time as far as you can.  I keep this information because when my kids played at Sheldon, most players didn't know that three former Sheldon players had played in a Super Bowl, much less played in college.  If a Cottage Grove, North Bend or Junction city alum is reading this, let me know if  you've had any college/pro players.  You were in the MWL at one time.

Search

There are search engines in the football and baseball websites.  They are not your regular google search.  They are are targeted so you can find MWL alums/coaches on the MWL website.  Type in the name of the MWL person you want to search for and the search engine will find all of the entries on the MWL website.  If I'm missing someone, let  me know.

Nearing the end of season


Thanks for your support.  I really appreciate your positive comments.  Your comments and purchases of photos help me convince my wife that I should spend too much time maintaining the MWL website.  I also appreciate your critical comments.  They help me reconsider what my wandering mind has been writing.

Warriors dreaming of upsetting Spartans? & How 'bout them Lancers?

Most scouts who watch Marist probably go back to their team's head coach with advice to stock up the first aid kit.  But I have to believe that the Lebanon Warrior scouts went home thinking they have an opportunity.

The scouts and spectators watched Logan Silver get his first 300 yard rushing game against Parkrose.  Silver ended the day with 365 yards on 30 carries.  Yikes, that's over 12 yards per carry.  Silver also completed 10 passes for 90 yards.  Four of his completions were for TD's.  So why would the  Lebanon scouts think they have a chance after watching the undefeated Spartans (10-0) win their eighth straight game by at least 40  points?

Well, Lebanon plays in a league that primarily runs the ball.  And they watched Marist put the ball in the hands of just one guy all night and told him to run.  The scouts have to be thinking, "There's only one ball carrier to follow without Greg Park in the backfield.  We play in a league that runs the ball.  We know how to stop the run.  We stop Silver, we can win."

I also have to believe they saw something to work with in Parkrose's defensive scheme.  Parkrose kept Marist out of the end zone on two early red zone penetrations.  Parkrose set up three down lineman in wide gaps and let the linebackers fill the holes.  I thought Parkrose had a good plan, but it looked like that was their only plan.  When a team runs the same set on defense over and over, it is easy to figure out a way to defeat the scheme.

I also think Lebanon will be in better shape than Parkrose.  A couple of Marist fans made some pre-game comments about how 'big' Parkrose was.  My response was, "We'll see how 'big' they are after the first quarter, when they've chased Marist around the field."  The Parkrose guys got smaller as they ran out of gas and couldn't move far enough or fast enough to cover the ground needed to keep up with Marist.

Bottom line is that I think Lebanon has the potential to make the upcoming quarterfinal game a real match.  They should be athletic enough to execute a scheme to stop Silver from running wild.  But Marist ran Silver a lot because that's what Parkrose gave Marist.  The week before, when Greg Park left the game against Eagle Point in the first half, Marist lit it up through the air in the second half, including two touchdowns over 29 yards.

Churchill (#17 RPI) bounces Wilsonville (#2 RPI, #5 OregonLive Poll)

Early in the year, I said I loved Air Lancer and they make me laugh because the Lancer's make no effort to disguise what they are going to do.  The just send out the receivers and throw.  The receivers get the glory, but it's unrecognized QB Derek Godfrey who makes this year's version of Air Lancer work.  Godfrey has thrown ten td passes in his last four games, including six in the playoffs.  The Lancer's air game is set up via the pounding of the ball by junior running back Aaron Ingram, who averages around 100 yards a game and  over 5 yards a carry.

The Wilsonville Upset.  What's that old saying?  "Success comes when preparation meets opportunity."  That describes Churchill's win over Wilsonville, who was #2 in the RPI and #5 in the final OregonLive poll.  I mentioned in last week's blog that I thought Churchill had a good shot at upsetting Wilsonville.  Wilsonville's defense has been suspect and while Wilsonville was a high scoring  team, they hadn't been overwhelming some mediocre to weak teams the last several weeks of the regular season and the play-in game.

Those two reason's were enough for me to think upset for the high octane Lancers.  Then Opportunity raised its head even further when Wilsonville's leading tackler and second leading scorer was injured and ruled out for the Churchill game due to a serious injury incurred during the play-in game.  Still, Wilsonville was ranked ahead of Marist in the RPI.  Does anyone think Marist would lose to Churchill if Marist lost their leading tackler?

So Churchill drove to Wilsonville where Preparation met Opportunity.  Little did anyone know, but Churchill also had a giant dose of Coolness Under Pressure in their Preparedness plan.

If you missed it, here's how it went:

• Churchill    14-0  midway thru 1st. 2 TD passes
• Wilsonville 14-14   with 12 seconds left in 1st.

• Wilsonville  21-14   early in 2nd quarter.
• Wilsonville  21-17  Chill quickly scores field goal.
• Wilsonville  28-17  at half. WV 24 yd rush TD.       

• Wilsonville  28-24.  Chill's Moore 14 run early in 3rd.
• Churchill      30-28   Determan 32 td catch 14 seconds after Moore's td in 3rd q.

• Wilsonville   34-30 Td with 10 minutes to go
• Wilsonville   41-30 Td 6 minutes to go. Uh-Oh
• Wilsonville   41-36 Churchill's Ingram 1 yd run with 4:48 to go
• Churchill      42-41 Godfrey to Savelich 31 yds 2:15 left in game.  2 pt conversion failed.

I got drained just reading the scoring summary.  I haven't seen a well written article about the game yet.  I'll let you know if I do.  There must have been some  key turnovers, as Churchill scored touchdowns back to back within 30 seconds - TWICE!

Crescent Valley is the quarterfinal opponent for Churchill.  Crescent Valley lost the Mid-Willamette title by 1 point to Corvallis in a week 2 game at Corvallis.  Once again I like the Lancer's chances. However, Crescent Valley's run game is cause for concern.  The Raiders run the ball 70% of the time.   They don't break the long ones, they just grind it and control the clock.  I think this game will be won or lost by Churchill's D line and linebackers.  If they can get the ball back into the hands of the Churchill O, I believe Air Lancer will score.  If the Raiders just control the clock and grind it out, it'll be tough for Churchill to get the air show going.

It looks like it's going to rain Friday, so I'll be leaving my camera at home and watching the Marist-Lebanon game from the stands.  I like an occasional game in the stands.  I get a much better feel for what the coaches are trying to accomplish when I sit in the stands, compared to when I am looking through the camera eyepiece.

Marist over Eagles - what you didn't read & RPI stuff

Marist over Eagle Point

Steve Mims article in The Register-Guard captured the highlights of the game.  Logan Silver throwing for 5 td's.  Receivers Walcott and Baird going wild. Marist recovered three fumbles and had two picks. And coach Geske saying Marist needs to clean things up on O and D. 

Some items you didn't read about. 

• Running back Greg Park scored early in the game, but left the game during the first half and came out on crutches after halftime..... 
• Marist punter Colton Bowden had two key punts in the game.  The first gem was a 50 yarder from his endzone.  The second was a kick from the Eagle Point side of the field that Bowden neatly punched down the left sideline, pinning the Eagles deep rather than giving the Eagles the ball on the 20 by kicking through the end zone. Little things make a great team.....
• Eagle Point racked up a lot of rushing yardage, mostly on quarterback Shane Bluhm's 161 yards on 14 carries.  Most of the yardage was on an 80 yarder that displayed Bluhm's speed.  That still leaves 81 yards on 13 carries, a 6.2 average for those 13 carries.  That's not a good sign if Marist should eventually meet Sherwood.  Sherwood averages 9.6 yards per carry!!!!....
• Silver's passing stats were impressive, but seeing him in person, he was more impressive than typical gawdy high school stats.  I've seen Marist three times this season.  Silver was throwing darts when he needed to and he was hitting his deep receivers in stride.  But his best pass might have been a second half pass when he threw a pass with just enough loft to get over the linebackers and yet dropped in on his receiver and not into the DB's hands.
• Silver's fielding was excellent.  He scooped up several mis-snaps and either prevented the turnover or made something out of the play.  Silver was a first team all league baseballer last spring.  (Can't wait til baseball.  There are a ton of good players locally.)
• Coach Geske said his Spartans were outhit.  I don't know if it was because I was up in the stands rather than on the sidelines, but I did feel that there wasn't the intensity I saw in the other two Marist games I attended. Even some of the Marist fans around me were mentioning that they thought the Spartans were out of tune and lacking intensity.  I said I agreed, but pointed out that the scoreboard said 30-6 during halftime.
• Had the Eagles passing game clicked, Marist might have been under some pressure.  Eagle Point had a lot of wide open receivers and a lot of time to pass.  But often times when Bluhm hit his receivers, they dropped the ball.  And on other times the receiver was open and the ball was off just a little. 

Round of 16

Marist hosts Parkrose
Ashland travels to Sherwood
Churchill travels to Wilsonville

Marist, Sherwood and Wilsonville are three of the four elite teams this year.  Mountain View is the fourth. Jefferson always is ranked high, but they just aren't consistent enough to make it to the top of the mountain.  (Although, Jeff made it to the finals last year.)  In theory, Marist will crush Parkrose, Sherwood will crush Ashland and Wilsonville will crush Churchill. 

• I think Marist will win easily, although Parkrose likes to score early and often. 
• If either Ashland or Churchill is going to pull off the upset, I think it would be Churchill.   I think Ashland is a better team than Churchill, but the Grizzlies are going to play a team that is simply amazing in their running game.  Sherwood brings emotional tears to my 1950's eyes by jamming the ball down the opponents throats on the ground. 
• Churchill gets to play Wilsonville, a team that is a little more balanced than Sherwood. Churchill should be able to put together a plan with hopes of slowing down Wilsonville. And Wilsonville is much more likely than Sherwood to give up points.

Final RPI humor

I like the RPI and seeding.  It helps avoid matchups of clearly top teams until the quarters or even semis.  There is still some fine tuning to do, but I think it is a big winner.  Nevertheless:

Keep in mind these are playoff games and things are serious now:

W by 44    Marist          RPI + 4
W by 35    Ashland              -13
W by 15    Churchill            +  8
L   by 44    Eagle Point        +13
L   by 21    Springfield         +  1
L   by 31    Marshfield         +14
L   by 42   North Eugene    +17

All teams that lost, gained in the RPI, although it doesn't matter to them.  All losing teams were eliminated from the playoffs, so increasing their RPI doesn't matter.  Ashland's loss of 13 RPI  points really changed their playoff pairing.  Had Ashland just broke even in RPI points, the Grizzlies would be rated 9th, not 13th.

Teams with hopes of going deep in the playoffs need to schedule tough non-league games during the regular season, knowing that a loss to a tough team is worth more RPI points than a win over a wimpy team.  They also need to schedule a tough game during the first play-in week.  The way the RPI works, a loss against a top team may increase your RPI. 

Watch a Play Off game

If you've got a kid who will be returning next year, take him to a playoff game.  Marist and Sheldon games would be great games to watch.  If I were a coach of team that has been knocked out of the playoffs, I'd try and gather as many returning players as I could and go to a playoff game.  I'll probably go to the Marist game this week.  But I'm tempted to see Ashland at Sherwood.  I saw Sherwood last year.  They have the same great backs.  I think the only way you beat Sherwood is by outscoring them.  And I know Sherwood is going to be sitting on Scarmanich.

Mid-Willamette vs MWL 8, RPI & All Stars

Second Round Play-In Games

Five of the seven MWL 8 play-in games are against Mid-Willamette teams. The RPI system thinks the Mid-Willamette league is the SEC of Oregon.

Here's a breakdown of how the MWL compares:

League Finish    Mid Will RPI   MWL8 RPI
          1                     603               627       +24 
          2                     602               568        -34
          3                     572               517        -55
          4                     547               496        -51
          5                     504               445        -59
          6                     437               437          0
          7                     397               363        -34
          8                     391               338        -53

If the Mid-Willamette League sweeps us, four of the five winner's RPI's are likely to go down.  That would serve them right.

Interesting Play-In Notes:

• The only Mid-Willamette team that isn't playing a MWL 8 team is West Albany (5-3, 547 RPI) which travels to Bend (4-4, 552).
• The only MWL 6 team not to play a Mid Willamette team  is Marist, who plays MWL 8 member Eagle Point.  This boo-boo in scheduling has given speculation to:
•  The MWL 8 could become an official league next year.  That would be an appropriate adjustment to the new everyone in playoff system.  Eagle Point, third in the MWL 8, ahead of five other MWL 8 teams, had to play a play in game.  Three teams that finished below them in the MWL 8 had byes.  Making the MWL 8 an official football league would also eliminate a second round game between to MWL 8 teams.

The Match Ups

• Marist vs Eagle Point at Willamette High.  Most people will think the outcome will be the same as when these two teams met four weeks ago.  I think the Eagle's hope lies in finding a way for the Eagle line to control some part of the Marist D line.  This is a tall order as they will be facing league MVP Matthew Devereux and league defensive MVP Logan Mayes.  If Eagle Point can open some lanes for the backs to punch out a few yards, the Eagles can blend their running game with a crisp passing game.  Defensively, Eagle Point won't stop Marist, but Marist has had a few games where they lost the ball several times.
• South Albany (2-7, 391 RPI) at Ashland (6-2, 568).  I watched South Albany dispatch Willamette last week at Willamette.  The Rebels running back Adam Schamp, #22, was too quick and way too fast for Willamette.  Ashland's D is quick enough to slow down Schamp and Ashland's Scarmanich & Volz will control the ball effectively and receivers Lime, Dodds and Heater will find the soft spots.
• Silverton (4-4, 504 RPI) at Churchill (4-3, 496).  Note that Silverton beat Springfield 35-28 in the season opener.  Silverton has a 60:40 rush to pass ratio.  They pound the ball at a little over 56 yards a carry.  They have a 5'9" workhorse in #5, Troy Sinn.  Sinn is the leading rusher, but at just 4.1 YPC.  Joe Bochsler, #13, who doesn't get many carries, but averages 8.5 YPC,  is the second leading rusher on the team.  Quarterback Nic Reinhard has solid 94 qb rating.  He's thrown 12 td passes versus just 3 interceptions.    Silverton is much improved from their first game of the season against Springfield.  Churchill will have their hands full.  I don't think you'll see turnovers by Silverton.  Churchill will have to play sharp.  Turn over the ball and the Foxes will just pound it on the ground and control the clock and game. The Lancers filled 22 positions in the all league voting.  They will all have to play like all leaguers to win this one.
• Lebanon (6-2, 572 RPI) at Springfield (3-5, 445).  This is strictly the Air Force versus Army.  Lebanon runs the ball 83% of the time!  They average 6.6 YPC.  Yikes!  Springfield passes the ball 51% of the time.  I say, let 'er rip.  Hopefully, Lebanon won't be able to stop Levi Green's passing game.  After all, Lebanon doesn't see much passing in their league.  In Lebanon's favor is that Springfield didn't have any defensive players make all league lineman.  Could be a high scoring game.
• Marshfield (3-5, 437 RPI) at Crescent Valley (6-2, 602).  Crescent Valley runs the ball 70% of the time. Marshfield is about the same.  The Raiders M.O. is to control the ball, slowly march down the field for a TD, then stuff the opponent.  They don't go wild on offense, but they have scored at least 27 points in their last six games.   Their defense has held their opponents to two or fewer TD's in the last five games.  Marshfield's offense has gone wild twice this year, and they are due.  The Pirates will see some smash-mouth football out or Crescent Valley, but if the Pirates explode, they might surprise the Raiders who don't usually strike quickly.
• North Eugene (1-8, 363 RPI) at Corvallis (6-2, 603).  A true David versus Goliath game.  Corvallis is a passing team according to Mid-Willamette standards, passing 35% of the time. Corvallis has really weird stats.  The qb is very efficient in the td to int area, but only averages 11.8 yards per completion.  They run the ball a lot, but only average 3.9 yards per carry due to quarterback sacks.  The Highlanders are rightly a long shot.  If the Highlanders can keep Corvallis from ripping off huge yards in their running game, they might keep themselves in the game and have a chance at the end.

League All Stars

The MVP discussions couldn't have taken too long.  My vision is that the other coaches pulled a Saturday Night Live skit and bowed down and said, "We are not worthy."  And then they let Marist coach Frank Geske squirm as he had to choose among Devereux, Mayes and Silver for the MVP spots.  By the way the last lineman to win league MVP was, of course, a Pirate.  Marshfield's Mike Beslisle pulled off the trick in 1997.  Since then it's been five QB's, five RB's and two receivers.   Link to MVP's since 1980

All in all, I thought the selections were very good.  There were very few that made me scratch my head. I would have hoped a few more Highlanders would have made the team.  Here's a breakdown:

Team                1st   2nd   HM  Total
Marist                10     8       5       23
Ashland               4     6       9       19
Eagle Point          4     3       8       15      
Churchill              4     8        9      21
Springfield           3     1        6       10
Marshfield            1     3        5         9
Willamette           1     1        4         6
North Eugene      0     0        1         1

I'll be inputting the all league players on each teams section over the next few days.  Let me know if I omit anyone or get some info/spelling wrong.

End Regular Season - RPI, Stats & Playoffs

My Honda Accord has passed on to Totaled Car Heaven.  I picked up my check from a lifesize cardboard cutout of Flo, the TV spokeswoman for Progressive insurance.  More about that later.

Funny RPI stuff.

Marist and Marshfield didn't play until Saturday.  The RPI's were adjusted for all teams based on Friday night's results and before the Marist-Marshfield game.  Marist dropped six points, while Marshfield gained eight points.  Then Marist picked up a win at Marshfield.  Road wins are worth more than home wins, so I thought Marist would at least break even in their RPI rating.  Nope, Marist lost eight more points.  Marshfield picked up 20 RPI points for the loss, a net gain of 28 for the weekend.

Marist          Won on the road        down 14
Ashland        Won at home              up 19
Eagle Point    Lost on the road         up 3
Churchill        Won at home             down 11
Marshfield      Lost at home              up 28
Springfield      Won at home             down 16
Willamette      Lost on the road         even
North Eugene Lost on the road         down 2

Note that three winners lost RPI points.  Two losers gained RPI points and one loser broke even.

All in all, I think the RPI is doing a fine job.  There just aren't enough games against other leagues.  At least the RPI and seeding will keep the top seeds from meeting before the quarterfinals.  There are usually three or four very good teams in 5A.  Then there are another few teams that could upset them by playing a great game and getting some breaks.  But it will be rare for a 9 or lower seed to upset a top four seed.

Stats

Six teams have updated their MaxPreps stats with final regular season stats.  North Eugene has five of seven games loaded into MaxPreps, while Marshfield doesn't  use MaxPreps.  My stats are a little more thorough than MaxPreps as I have been able to find some missing stats for North Eugene and Marshfield in the newspapers.  For my stats go here.  MaxPreps stats are more fun to play with however.  You can slice them and dice them anyway you want, including specific games for individuals, and they even have a total yardage category (combining passing and rushing only). For MaxPreps stats go here.

Thomas Spikes won the rushing title with 1033 yards or 129 yards per game.  His big outing of 305 yards against Eagle Point is what put him in first and allowed him to finish over 100 yards ahead of the second leading rusher.

Sophomore Kamerun Smith won the passing yardage title with 1777 yards and an average of 222 yards per game.  Marist's Logan Silver was the only starting QB with a quarterback rating over 100.  He crushed it at 127.  Logan was second in league in both rushing and passing yardage, making him the league leader in total yardage at 2599 yards.  That's 325 yards per game - for just one person.  Yikes.  Ashland's Jacob Scarmanich also broke 2000 yards.  He totaled 2060 yards if you add his 148 yards receiving to his passing and rushing yards.  [MaxPreps uses the NFL quarterback rating.  I use the NCAA rating and have included Darren Thomas of the Ducks for compariston.  Logan's rating is way ahead of Thomas's]


I have mentioned that it has been a fantastic year for quarterbacks several times this fall.  Four quarterbacks finished with over 200 yards per game passing. And three of the others are over 200 yards per game of total yardage because of their good blend of running and passing abilities.  That means that there had to be a lot of receivers with great stats.  I've mentioned the receivers individually a lot this year.  The leader at the end of the season is Springfield's John Davidson with 741 yards or 93 per game.  Brandon Determan led the league in receptions with 51.  Marist's Taylor Walcott (612 yds) was the only receiver to officially break 100 yards per game - 102.  However teammate Austin Baird (635) averaged over 100 yards per game in the games he caught a pass.  But he had one game (the game that Walcott returned after missing two and a half games) where he played but didn't catch a pass.  Cameron Koehler (621) and Deaunte Brown (602) of Willamette were also in the exclusive 600 yard club.

Play-In and Play-Off

In case you haven't seen all of the matchups in one place

• Winner of (Eagle Point at Dallas) at Marist (Marist traveled to Eagle Point earlier this fall)
• Winner (South Albany at Willamette) at Ashland (Ashland traveled to Willamette earlier this fall)
• Silverton at Churchill
• Lebanon at Springfield
• Marshfield at Crescent Valley
• Winner (North Eugene at Summit) at Corvallis

I think we have a decent chance of moving all three teams playing Play-In games into the round of 32.  RPI wise, Eagle Point is way ahead of Dallas.  The South Albany at Willamette game will feature two teams giving up huge points on defense.  But Willamette has been more prolific on O.  North Eugene and Summit are evenly matched and there is no reason for North's speedy guys not to win on the other side of the mountains.

Reviewing my preseason prediction:

My official pre league prediction was made after the first round of non MWL 8 games.  In the MWL 6, I had Marist and Churchill 1-2, even though Churchill didn't play the first week.  I went with Willamette third, Springfield fourth, Marshfield fifth and North Eugene sixth.  I was pretty close. 

I thought Willamette was hurt hard by losing Danny Granillo, a two way first teamer in 2009.  Granillo switched to tight end and was becoming a monster when he blew out his ACL during the second game against Springfield.  Also, the Wolverines weren't helped by not having Jordan Visarraga at running back for most of their games. 

Springfield took a second game hit with two way second teamer Kameron Bates blowing his ACL in the same game that Willamette's Granillo injured his.  Neither of these teams has the depth of Marist to stay at a high level when they lose key players to injury.  Marist, on other hand, lost three or four key players in the first game against Corvallis, and had players that acted like Terminator's and morphed into perfect replacements.  In any event, I hate to see a player go down, especially in his senior year.

I ranked Ashland third in the MWL 8 in my pre-season guess.  But I dropped Ashland hard to sixth after they lost to Klamath Union 14-7 and moved Eagle Point to third for my final prediction.  Little did I know KU would turn out to be pretty good - they haven't lost to an Oregon team yet.  Ashland Coach Hall must be smiling.

Flo and My Totaled Car

Flo is the female TV personality for Progressive Insurance.  She's always dressed in white and wears the bright red lipstick.  Flo is always talking about discounts.  "More than one car - discount", "Motorcycle - discount", "Accident Free - discount"...  Well add this - "Totaled Car - Discount".  Very funny, Flo

Wife's birthday and Friday Night Football

I negotiated watching Sheldon at Thurston on TV while listening to Springfield and North Eugene, rather than leaving her at home and going to a game.  Our second grade neighbor came over and helped me sing 'Happy Birthday' and I was good for the night.  That was a close one.

Oct 22/23 Predictions

Haven't been quite on top of my website the last three days because I was rear ended (totaled my car) by (choose 1):

a) A U of O student who was texting
b) A parent who thought I should have mentioned his kid as a first team all leaguer
c) A bicyclist in downtown Eugene

Predictions:

MWL fans are outguessing me by a margin of 3 so far this season.  I don't anticipate being able to close the gap this week because as of right now the fans and I are in total agreement about this week's games.  I have a post on OregonLive's forum for folks to rig the fan poll so that fans lose and I win.  I'm embarrassed that the fans are whipping me.

Eagle Point at Ashland.

This could be a fantastic game to watch. 

• If Eagle Point can play like they did against Churchill.... starting the game with an unstoppable passing game and closing the game with an unstoppable running game.  Eagle QB Shane Bluhm is fourth in state in total yardage at the 5A level.  Eagle Aaron Foster is second in league in scoring, third in rushing and seventh in receiving.  Garrett the Snowman is sixth in rushing and has hauled in 15 passes..
• If Ashland can continue to employ the two Jake qb set up and rack up huge chunks on the ground and air.  Jake Scarmanich is second in state in total yardage. Receivers Dodds and Heater are ninth and tenth in league.  RB Jackson Volz is tenth in league rushing.

I'm going with Ashland's five game winning streak and home field advantage.  Anything can happen. Enjoy this game if you can.  You'll be watching a lot of all leaguers in what should be a fast hard hitting game.

Marist at Marshfield (North Bend)

The Spartans are marching to North Bend and won't get there until Saturday.  So we'll have to wait til late Saturday or Sunday morning to get the final results and final RPI calculations.  (There might be another RPI calculation after the five playin games.  If there is, it won't affect the RPI much)

Anything can happen on the bay.  It would be fantastic for the Marshfield program and seniors to pull this one out.  Watch Marshfield's Ryan Scoville and Marist's Taylor Walcott.  Both are explosive players.  It should be no surprise to anyone as both of these players were in the state finals in the 100 meter dash (5A and 4A).  It'll take a magic and well executed game plan for the Pirates to prevail.  But if they can use RB's Scoville, John Davidson, Dallas Milburn and receivers Erin Griffin and Dalton Milburn effectively they have a chance.    Even though Marshfield has yet to lose an official home game this season, I've got to go with the Spartans.

Willamette at Churchill.

The forecast is for rain, but don't expect rain to stop these two qb's from passing like crazy.  Willamette soph Kamerun Smith leads the league in passing yardage. Churchill's Derek Godfrey is second in average per game behind Smith.  Churchill would be favored even without rain, but rain plays even more into Churchill's hand.  With running backs Aaron Ingram and Kingsley Nkwanta, they have proven they can rack up major ground yardage.  That's something Willamette hasn't enjoyed, although Wolverine Skyler Mohr is a load to tackle.  When the teams line up on O, always check where Churchill's Brandon Determan and Willamette's Cameron Koehler and Deaunte Brown are.  If the ball goes in the air, it's likely to reach those guys and fireworks will follow.

Churchill wins this one, but enjoy some of the best receivers in the league.

North Eugene at Springfield

North Eugene's heartbreak kids get one more shot at victory in Springfield.  Alex Wilson, one of my favorite receivers last year, has been an explosive RB and kick return man this year.  His receiving duties have been successfully taken over by Colin Mender and junior Ryan Koth. Mender being the big play guy at 18 yards per catch.  QB Dylan Lubonski is putting up respectable numbers (they'd be very good in most leagues).

Springfield's Levi Green has an outstanding quarterback rating and is racking up passing yardage (3rd in league).  Springfield has the league's leading rusher in Thomas Spikes and the leading receiver in John Davidson.  Springfield's Achilles heal has been it's defense.  North is explosive enough to take advantage of the Miller D.  Still the game is at Silke and if it's raining, Spikes can just pound it all night.  I'm predicting Springfield. 

Normally the last night of league is the end of the season for some teams, but everyone has at least one more game.  Still, take some time to watch some of the players you don't normally follow - like lineman or DB's.  It's fun to follow them on a play from beginning to end, and you'll learn to appreciate their efforts.

If I find a car by Friday night, I'm thinking of going to the Thurston-Sheldon game.  However, my wife may not consider high school hamburgers a decent birthday dinner.

Marshfield, NE, RPI, All League

I decided to skip the Sheldon-Roseburg game last Friday.  A very reliable birdy told me that Roseburg wouldn't be able to keep up with Sheldon. He was correct.  Instead of watching the Irish, I took in the Marshfield at Churchill game.  I just had to see the new wildcat offense that the Pirates had installed.

Marshfield at Churchill

This game was much closer than the final score.  The game was tied at halftime.  And a pair of potential picks by the Pirates in the second half could have changed the outcome.  One pick was a great defensive play by Marshfield's #10 Kody Crook, but the official ruled the pass incomplete. The other potential pick was a certain pick six by a Pirate who did a great job of reading and jumping a Godfrey pass to the flat.  But the pigskin squirted away and the Marshfield crowd and this unbiased photographer let out a collective and very slow "Ohhhhh".  It would have taken a near perfect game for Marshfield to win, and they were in it through the third quarter.  The Pirates can build on the last two weeks.

Marshfield, which has lost every other game while winning each home game, looked like a very different team than the Pirates I saw at Springfield.  Gone were the nine turnovers.  And the O linemen stayed with it until the very end.  The wildcat proved successful, with Ryan Scoville handling the ball quite a bit.  But Churchill could stack up against the run and clog the short passing routes because the Pirates weren't a serious threat to go deep with a pass. 

Aaron Ingram returned to the Lancers after missing last week's game against Marist.  His return definitely helped.  Ingram (19 carries for 108 yards) and Kingsley Nkwanta (10 for 71) are a couple of tough horses to pull down.  Having them on the field keeps the opponent's D from sitting on the pass.  Plus I think the effort to bring down these two backs helped wear down the Pirate D line in the second half.  Godfrey piloted Air Lancer to success once again.  Godrey, Determan and crew were just too much for the Pirates to handle.  Coach Mehl has to be happy with his offensive balance.  The Lancers ran for 204 yards, while picking up 246 through the air.

All in all, I wasn't disappointed that I skipped the Sheldon game.  I wanted to take a look at how Sheldon might stack up against Marist.  I'll watch Sheldon later.  I saw a good game at Churchill. 

North Eugene

Another heartbreaker for North Eugene.  This time Eagle Point put together a late-in-the-game effort to beat the Highlanders 32-30.  North Eugene lost another late-in-the-game match early in the season when Marshfield scored late to steal the win.  And finally, North had a very realistic shot against Willamette, but a game tying drive by the Highlanders ended at the Wolverine 14.  You have to hand it to the Highlander's for playing hard through all of the adversity.  They'll get their final shot at a league victory when they travel to Springfield Friday.

North Eugene coach Eric Johannsen is in a tough and unenviable position of trying to grow the numbers of football players in his program in a school with a small student body for a 5A school.  More players mean more depth, fresher players and more competition among Highlanders.  He's fortunate to have a senior class that has provided excitement for the program.  Dylan Lubonski, Alex Wilson, Jackson Landgreen, and Colin Mender were all exciting on offence and special teams.  It's going to be tough to replace these guys and several good linemen and linebackers.

Fun RPI stuff

RPI recap:
Marist           won - RPI down 23
Ashland         won - RPI up      18
Eagle Point    won - RPI down 21
Churchill        won - RPI up      19
Springfield      lost - RPI up        3
Marshfield      lost - RPI down   4
Willamette      lost - RPI up      55
North Eugene lost - RPI up      15

• Marshfield's RPI should go up this weekend, win or lose,  because they host Marist. 
• On the other hand, Marshfield's win-loss record could pull Marist's RPI down even if the Spartans win.  But if Marist wins, a win on the road is worth more than a win at home, so maybe Marit will break even.  If Marist should lose, would the Spartan RPI go up because Marshfield's record would improve? 
• A win by Churchill at home over Willamette might not help the Lancers' RPI.  A home win doesn't count as much as an away win, and Willamette's record will drag down Churchill's RPI.  Which brings me to....

Marshfield's home town paper, The World, published an on-line article that states that after the Marist game "The Pirates will have a bye...before visiting the runner up in the tough Mid-Willamette League."  That makes it sound like there is no dream in Coos Bay of a major upset of Marist.  Hopefully, the writer meant to tie that sentence into the previous paragraph which states the 'likely' outcome is that Marshfield will get the fourth seed in the MWL. 

In any event, the minor boo-boo made me think of what Marshfield's coach Justin Ainsworth's preparation speeches to his players will be before the Marist game this week now that he has seen the article which basically mailed in the score.  "Lads.  Our RPI goes up whether or not we beat Marist. So, the outcome is no big deal.  Just go out and have fun."  My dreamstate speech would be, "We're moving Dalton Milburn to the backfield and lining him up one foot behind our guards.  We're putting him in motion as a blocking back, sort of like a puling guard, to pick up a head of  steam and see what he can to do to Devereux and Mayes.  We're gonna have Scoville running and hiding behind Dalton. Dalton is so huge (especially to the Churchill field announcer last weekend) Marist won't know where Scoville is until he is long gone."

For those of you not at the Churchill game, the announcer was so mesmerized by Dalton Milburn's size that midway through the game he said over the PA system, "For those of  you wondering, Dalton Milburn is 6'6" and 260 pounds."  You know what? I really was wondering and I forgot to pick up a program.  You'll see more of Dalton on the basketball court.

SOC championship game


It's an all animal game in Ashland.  Grizzlies and Eagles.  The MWL only has one animal, the Wolverines.  I really want to sneak down to see this game.  I have to believe that there will be a lot more intensity for this local match up than what I have seen out of these two teams when they played up here.  Unfortunately, someone in my household turns 39 again this weekend and I would not survive a trip to Ashland without scoring some Shakespeare matinee tickets.  More about this game in the previews later this week.

All League Thoughts

The MWL had well over 80 positions filled when we had just six teams.  Will we will have over 100 all league spots now that we have eight teams?

Quarterback:

• Silver looks to be a shoo in for first team.  In a year with a lot of good quarterbacks, Silver is great.  I guess we could discount his performance because he never faced Marist. 
• If you had to just stick with two more all league quarterbacks, who would they be?  I'm thinking it's among Scarmanich, Godfrey and Green.  Their quarterback rating indexes are fairly high for high school quarterbacks. 
• Green's touchdown to interception ratio is fantastic. Godfrey's td to int ratio is not nearly as good as Green's. Advantage Green
• Godfrey has almost as many yards as Green, but Churchill has played one less game. Advantage Godfrey.
• That brings us to Scarmanich.  Scarmanich is number two in total yardage in the MWL 8, whether or not  you include his receiving yards. Advantage Scarmanich.
• Scarmanich has delivered five wins in a row against MWL 6 teams.  Big advantage Scarmanich. 
• That leaves out Kamerun Smith, the league's leading passer in yards, Shane Bluhm third in league and state in total yardage (among teams reporting to MaxPreps) and Dylan Lubonski. It was a very good year for quarterbacks. (Marshfield is now running the wildcat and spreads it's qb touches around a lot.) 

So if you were one of the coaches, would you try and pick just one qb for first team, one for second team and one for honorable mention?  Or, do you plug in six or seven qb's?

By the way, only one regularly starting qb returns next year.  That's the league leader in yardage - Willamette's sophomore, Kamerun Smith.

Receiver:

If there were so many hot quarterbacks this year, there had to be a lot of top receivers.  I don't know where you draw the line:

• Springfield's John Davidson leads the league with 604 yards
• Marist has two players with over 500 yards, Junior Taylor Walcott and sophomore Austin Baird.  They'll be back.
• Willamette has two stellar receivers in Cameron Koehler and Deaunte Brown, both in the top 5 of the MWL in yards. 
• Churchill's Brandon Determan is right behind Davidson in total yardage at 598.

These are probably the top six receivers in the league.  Might want to discount Willamette's receivers yardage a little because of Willamette's focus on passing.  That's pretty much what the Wolverines do.  On the other hand, it had to be tough for these guys to get catches if defenses planned accordingly.

A couple of North Eugene receivers had some solid stats.  North played one less game  than most teams, plus I'm missing one game of stats.  The Highlander's Colin Mender and junior Ryan Koth put up nice stats.  Marshfield's Evan Griffen might have been a giant force on any other team in the league.  The Pirates just didn't pass much this year .  (Evan was injured for several games, so you may not have seen him)

Running Backs

I think they should have two running back categories.  Feature Back for the lucky guys who get all the carries.  Pounding Back for the guys who do the dirty work of lead blocking and get the ball on the goal line.

Feature Backs (Minimum 50 Carries - about 7 a game)


Thomas Spikes, Aaron Foster, Greg Park, Aaron Ingram. Ryan Scoville

Pounding Backs ( Minimum 30 carries - about 4 a game):
Garrett Snow, Tyler Davidson, Jackson Volz, Skyler Mohr

Snow and Ingram will be back next year.

Linemen:

I have no idea how anyone can choose all star linemen. Who's keeping track of offensive stats?  I think they should give all of the starting linemen in the league ballots that have the names of all of the starting linemen in the league.  Players couldn't vote for their own teammates.  DB's the same way, but  just backs and receivers get to vote on the DB's.  All offensive players could vote on linebackers.

Any ball handlers I forgot to mention who are as good as or better than the players I mentioned?  Please respond via the comment section of this blog or email me at mwlnow@yahoo.com

Oct 15 Previews and Predictions

Once again thanks to Chris Park for the Previews.

MIDWESTERN LEAGUE PREVIEW WEEK 7

Fans have four games to choose from this week with all four local teams taking the field for home games in the Eugene/Springfield metro area. Two games stand out as potentially entertaining and for post season implications. The biggest is Marshfield at Churchill, as both teams are still in the hunt for the Midwestern League title.

MARSHFIELD PIRATES (2-1, 3-3) AT CHURCHILL LANCERS (2-1, 2-3):

Marshfield fans are wishing this game was at home, where the Pirates are undefeated. But it is on the road at Churchill and Marshfield has yet to win a road game this year. They have also not won back to back games or lost back to back games. Erratic is the best adjective to describe their play so far this year. At times they have played very well (41-32 win at home versus Eagle Point and last week’s 59-14 home win over Willamette). But then how to explain the 6-50 loss at Springfield and 9-35 loss at Ashland).

Churchill had a rough go of it last week in a 45-6 loss to Marist. The Churchill defense gave up 35 points in the first quarter! Junior running back Aaron Ingram was injured and missed the game versus Marist. His status for returning is unknown.

Both teams are still in the race for the Midwestern League title and #1 seed for the first and second round play in games.Churchill needs to win this game and then get a little help from Marshfield next week and hope the Pirates can defeat Marist. If Marshfield wins this game and then defeats Marist next week, they will be the league champions.

Seeding for first and second round play in games is a stake.

• The #1 seed will host the winner of Mid Willamette Conference #7 seed versus Southern Oregon #2 seed.
• The #2 seed from the Midwestern league will host the #5 seed from the Mid Willamette Conference.
• The #3 seed from the Midwestern league will host the #3 seed from the Mid Willamette Conference.

Collectively, the Midwestern League is 1-2 versus the Mid Willamette Conference with the sole win Marist’s season opening home victory over Corvallis 42-14. Willamette lost to South Albany at home in the season opener, 34-35 and Springfield lost at home to Silverton 28-35.

Gary's Prediction:  I have no clue as the Pirates installed the wildcat last week and went wild on O, and I don't know if Aaron Ingram will be playing for the Lancers.  The MWL fan poll says that 62% are predicting a Churchill win.  The fans have been outperforming me lately.  So I'll trust them.  Churchill in a high scoring affair.

ASHLAND GRIZZLIES (4-2) AT SPRINGFIELD MILLERS (2-4):

Ashland won this game last year 24-7 in Ashland. The Grizzlies have won four straight after two losses to start the season (7-14 at Klamath Union and 0-31 at Marist) and appear to be hitting their stride. The offense has improved with the two quarterback system of Jake McCoy and Jake Scarminach. Scarminach has rushed for 505 yards and 4 touchdowns and thrown for 803 yards and 7 touchdowns, while McCoy has 337 yards passing and 5 touchdowns.

Springfield has struggled with three consecutive losses now to Marist, Churchill and Eagle Point. Senior quarterback Levi Green has passed for 1,217 yards on 112 completions and 199 attempts with 15 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. Senior running back Thomas Spikes leads the Midwestern League in rushing with 755 yards on 102 carries. The defense has been the issue for Springfield, giving up 108 points in the last three games. The Millers still have a reasonable shot for third in the Midwestern League. Next week they face North Eugene to conclude the Miller regular season.

Gary's Prediction:  Ashland has been the only team other than Marist to develop consistency.  Ashland 35 Springfield 28.

MARIST SPARTANS (6-0) AT WILLAMETTE WOLVERINES (1-5):

Marist continues to roll along and looked very impressive in a 45-0 win over Churchill last week. The offense is firing on all cylinders under the capable arm and legs of senior quarterback/running back Logan Silver. He has passed for 1,331 yards and 16 touchdowns and run for 683 yards and 9 touchdowns. The Marist defense is loaded with experienced seniors and recorded its third shutout of the year. So far this season the Marist defense has given up 26 points in six games, an amazing average of 4 points per game!

Willamette is led by Sophomore quarterback Kamerun Smith who has passed for 1,493 yards on 101 completions and 203 attempts. He has 9 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The Willamette defense has given up 269 points thus far this year and could be in for a long night against Silver and the Spartans.

Gary's Predition:  My wife, a principal in the Bethel School District, is going to check this game out for me.  Marist by a lot.


EAGLE POINT EAGLES (3-3) AT NORTH EUGENE HIGHLANDERS (0-5):

Eagle Point was flying high until two recent losses in a row to Marshfield and Marist. They showed some resiliency and rebounded at home with a 31-24 win over Springfield last week. Eagle Point has been laying the points on the old MWL teams. The Eagles poorest offensive outing against the old MWL is 31 points.

Fortunately for the Highlanders, the Eagles have also been opening the door for the opponents’ offense, giving up at least 3 tds to each of the old MWL teams.. North Eugene will need to continue that trend and score lots of points against Eagle Point because the Eagles offense is diverse and athletic and will certainly be moving the ball against the North Eugene defense.

Gary's prediction:  This should be a fun game to watch.  Both teams are explosive. Lot's of long gainers in this one.  Eagle Point wins with a little more firepower.

MWL fans have outpredicted me 20 to 17.  I won't be closing the gap this week because we are on the same page this week.  Wait until the playoffs! I"ll crush you.

OTHER GAMES THIS WEEK FOR 6A MIDWESTERN LEAGUE TEAMS:

#4 Roseburg is at #1 Sheldon.

Sheldon (629 RPI) and Roseburg (595 RPI) have the two lowest RPI’s of the four undefeated teams at the 6A level. That means that they haven’t played anyone yet. You won’t be able to say that after Friday. Both teams might benefit RPI-wise by playing each other. This game will be on TV - KEZI

Thurston is at South Eugene.

Have you noticed that Thurston is doing quite well in the 6A? The Colts are 3-1 in league and 4-2 overall. This is a game to establish the Colts as the second best 6A team in the Eugene-Springfield area. If Thurston beats South Eugene Friday, they can look forward to playing Sheldon the next week. A Thurston upset of Sheldon, following a win over South, would make the Colts the Eugene-Springfield 6A champ and put them in position to earn the second seed or even a part of a three way tie for first.

Marist - Churchill, Wildcat, RPI and more

Churchill at Marist

I went to the Churchill-Marist game last Thursday hoping to see some fireworks and to see an old MWL team at least put some first half points on the board against Marist.  The stands were full for this game for the league lead.  Churchill brought a large crowd and it was Marist's homecoming.  But on the field during warmups there wasn't any electricity among the teams.  Marist was methodically going through their pre game routine, while Churchill was just quiet.  Perhaps the Lancers were thinking about playing without Aaron Ingram, who sat out with a rib injury. 

I hadn't seen Marist since their opener against Corvallis.  Marist looked a little rough that game.  Probably it was because it was the opener and because they lost their starting QB after he completed his first pass of the season early in the game.  And they lost their primary receiver, Taylor Walcott, and key linebacker, Will Swindling.  But since the 'Return of the Injured' in the fourth game of the season against Springfield, the Spartans have exploded in the first quarter of each game.  The Spartans laid 35 points on Churchill in the first quarter.   Maybe Churchill's Aaron Ingram can pull off a 'Return of the Injured' and jazz up the Lancers for their last two games.

Willamette at Marshfield

During my preseason articles I repeatedly mentioned that I thought Marshfield had to get Ryan Scoville more touches.  I hadn't thought about making him quarterback in a wildcat formation.  One of the many reasons I am not a coach.  What a great idea for a team struggling in its passing game and needing something to ignite the players.  Marshfield, like Marist, had their own 'Return of the Injured'.  Lineman Johnny Castro and DB/WR Evan Griffan made huge contributions to the Pirates. Hats off to Marshfield coach Justin Ainsworth for keeping the ship afloat after the big loss in Springfield.

I'm strongly leaning towards going to the Sheldon - Roseburg game this weekend with Marshfield at Churchill being my backup.  I want to see some 6A ball and I want to see how Sheldon and Roseburg compare to Marist.   But how can I pass up seeing how Churchill will try and handle the Wildcat?  Remember, the Pirate's Scoville was in the final heat of the 5A 100 meter race at state.

Stats - Did Springfield's Thomas Spikes really rush for over 300 yards?

Yes he did.  But, get this, he didn't score!  The poor guy.  "Coach, I've carried the ball a million times and averaged 15 yards a carry.  Can't you give me the ball inside the ten?"  Spikes must have been one tired puppy.

Spikes 300 yard night put him into the lead in league rushing.  Logan Silver is the league's only other 100 yards per game rusher. 

Willamette's Kamerun Smith still leads the league in passing yardage at nearly 250 yards per game.  But it's Marist's Logan Silver and Springfield's Levi Green who are the efficiency leaders.  Both have over 200 yards per game and are above that critical 3 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio.  Churchill's Derek Godfrey is second in yards per game with 223.  Now that Godfrey has Marist behind him, he may move into the lead in average yards per game.  He'll have trouble leading the league in total yardage because Churchill is playing one less game than the other MWL 8 teams.

It's definitely a 'Year of the Quarterbacks" in the MWL.  And that means it also the 'Year of the Receiver'.  Their are tons of receivers that are a hoot to watch.   With two league games to go, who will be the league leader is going to go down to the last night, with several players in the race.  Marist has Baird (570) and Walcott (409); remember Walcott missed almost three full games.  Willamette has Brown and (523) Koehler (440 I'm missing a game for Koehler). Springfield's John Davidson has 518.  Churchill's Determan is fourth at 496.  Willamette will be introduced to Marist this week, so it's likely Brown's and Koehler's averages will drop.  The other leading receivers won't see Marist for the rest of the year.

Quarterbacks get all the glory, but I'll shine some light on a non quarterback.  Eagle Point's Aaron Foster is fourth in rushing and 7th in receiving.  Stats won't matter when the Eagles play Ashland in two weeks.

RPI

The MWL 6 still only has one team, Marist, with an RPI over 500.  This is killing Marist's chance of moving into the top two statewide seeds in the round of 16.  Marist's next two games are against teams with RPIs of 399 and 298. Our southern brothers, Ashland and Eagle Point are both above 500.  Something tells me Marist coach Frank Geske could care less about the RPI.  Just tell him who the Spartans play next in the playoffs.  He'll take care of the rest.

Marshfield Wildcat at Churchill Air Lancer.

Humongous game that was a yawner until the Pirates unveiled their wildcat.  This is mano-a-mano.  Stop my passing game.  No, you stop my running game. 

The game is also interesting because it pits a veteran coach, Darrel Mehl of Churchill, against second year coach Ainsworth of the Pirates.  Has Mehl seen the wildcat before and does he have a defensive plan for it?  Can Ainsworth develop a plan to stop the screen pass and keep Godfrey in the pocket? 

This game has a huge impact on the MWL 6.  A Marshfield win over Churchill sets up another game for the MWL title in Coos Bay/North Bend on the last night of regular season.  The same thing happened last year.  If Marshfield had beaten Thurston in 2009 in Coos Bay, the Pirates would have earned the number one seed.  This year it will be Marist for the title if the Pirate Wildcat beats Air Lancer.

A Marshfield win also sets up a possible three way tie for second.  Something Springfield would have a nightmare about.  Springfield ended up in a three way tie for second place in the MWL just two years ago.  The Millers lost the luck of the draw and missed the playoffs.  At least this time, the Millers could clinch a round of 32 game if they beat North Eugene in two weeks.

How teams finish in the MWL is huge come playoff time.  The MWL 2 seed plays the Mid-Willamette 5 seed.  The MWL 3 seed plays the Mid-Willamette 3 seed in the playoffs.  Big difference in a very tough Mid-Willamette league.

More about this Friday's games later in the week.

Thursday-Friday game Previews Marist 2-0 vs Churchil 2-0

I got a little behind this week due to a Saturday/Sunday trip to Vancouver, BC to watch my stepson, Alex Brink,  play back-up quarterback for Winnipeg in the CFl.  He didn't get to throw a pass, and wouldn't you know it, Winnipeg announced that Alex will be starting next Monday - in Winnipeg.


Don't forget that the two local games are tonight.  The two games in Ashland and Eagle  Point are on Friday.  It's a nice time to go to Ashland, watch a Friday game, and stay over and go to a Shakespearean play.

MID WESTERN LEAGUE PREVIEW WEEK 6

Two teams undefeated in league and tied for first place. Both ranked in the Pre-Season Top Ten at the start of the season. Post season positioning riding on the outcome. This game was circled on the schedule by lots of fans as one game not to miss. Churchill at Marist is the featured game of the week for local high school football fans.

CHURCHILL LANCERS (2-2) AT MARIST SPARTANS (5-0):

After a rough start with losses to Eagle Point and Ashland, the Lancers have rebounded with back to back league victories over North Eugene and Springfield. Churchill seems to be finding their rhythm. Perhaps the effect of not having an opening game until what was the second week of the season for most teams was a factor that hurt the Lancers. Regardless, Churchill is having success moving the football both on the ground and in the air. Churchill’s Aaron Ingram rushed for 155 yards and three touchdowns on 27 carries last week in a 33-21 win over Springfield. Quarterback Derek Godfrey was efficient in passing for 292 yards on 18 completions of 23 attempts. Now Churchill will face the Marist defense which has been outstanding so far this year, allowing a total of only 26 points in five games. The matchup between the Churchill offense and Marist defense will be critical.

Marist senior Quarterback/running back Logan Silver has done everything except drive the team bus for the Spartans. Perhaps he will do that this week. He has passed for 1072 yards, run for 514 yards, thrown 13 touchdown passes and run for 7 touchdowns.

The outcome of this game may depend on Churchill’s ability to slow down the Marist offense and move the ball against the Marist defense. Special teams, turnovers and penalties are other factors that could turn the tide either way.

Gary's Prediction:

I'm going to this game as Churchill has steadily improved.  They're starting to minimize their mistakes and their passing game is very efficient with Godfrey completing 60 percent of his passes and  wide receiver Brandon Determan battling for third place in receiving among the MWL 8 receivers.  And that's with one less game.  I'm curious how Marist coach Frank Geske is going to play this one.  Will he focus on Determan?  Will he focus on the running back Ingram?  I'm betting he releases the defensive front and challenges them to harass Godrey into poor passes and at the same time try and stop Ingram in his starting blocks.  Marist has not allowed more than a touchdown against any MWL 8 opponent and they want to continue that string. You already know how I feel about Marist.  Marist 35 Churchill 7.

WILLAMETTE WOVERINES (1-4) AT MARSHFIELD PIRATES (2-3):

Both of these teams are 1-1 in the Midwestern league and have common wins against North Eugene and common losses to Springfield. Willamette comes into this game after getting their first win of the season, a 34-27 win over North Eugene. Quarterback Kamerun Smith threw for 267 yards on 20 of 29 passing with two touchdowns. He has thrown for over a thousand yards so far this season. He will need some help from his defensive teammates who have given up an average of 42 points per game.

Marshfield enters this game following a 35-9 loss to Ashland. The Pirates have yet to lose back to back games this season and have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde. Following a blowout loss to Springfield, the Pirates rebounded with a 41-32 win over the high flying Eagle Point Eagles. Then last week they lose on the road to Ashland. The common variable is they have yet to lose at home. The Marshfield offense has been inconsistent and scored 90 points total in five games, 41 of those in the win versus Eagle Point. Can Marshfield get back on the winning track now that they are at home again?

Gary's Prediction:

First a comment about Willamette's game at North Eugene....

I went to the Willamette at North Eugene game last week thinking I could see two teams playing their guts out for their first win, or I might see a lot of turnovers, penalties and missed tackles.  I was treated to the former and a well played game.  The outcome of the game could have easily gone the other way.  There were many close calls, and they went Willamette's way all but one time.  One of the close calls occurred late, when a Highlander stripped the ball at the one and North recovered for a touchback.  But the official flagged North for a facemask call.  If the North folks want to upset themselves, they can look through the photo gallery and look at that play.  I recommend moving on with life.  Anyway, it was a heck of a game with the lineman going out all night.   My kind of game.  Exciting to the very end.

So the question is "Can Willamette go to the bay and play like they did against North again?"   The answer is 'Yes', unless the Pirates can get to qb Smith.  The every other week Pirates are scheduled for a good week this week.  I'm going to hope football fans see both teams at their best.  If that's the case, Willamette has too much firepower in the air and on the ground.  Even thought Willamette has defensive weaknesses even on a good night, I'm predicting  Willamette 35 Marshfield 28.  But remember the Marshfield-Eagle Point game.  

 SPRINGFIELD MILLERS (2-3) AT EAGLE POINT EAGLES (2-3):

Both teams enter this game following losses. Eagle Point lost at home to Marist last week 55-6. Springfield had their homecoming ruined by Churchill 33-21. Both teams have the ability to score both on the ground and through the air. This could be a fun game to watch and an important game for two teams eager to finish strong.

Gary's prediction:

I was high on Eagle Point's potential when I saw them beat Churchill in Eugene.  And I was wondering if Springfield's football  program had 'arrived' when I saw them beat Marshfield 50-6. 

Miller quarterback Levi Green is having quite the season with 14 td's and 2 ints.  Running  back Thomas Spikes is pounding out 5.7 yards per carry.  I think Springfield is due to put it all together.  On the other side, Eagle Point's offensive potential is scary.  Aaron Foster is a major threat at running back and receiver.  But I really think 5'10', 210 pound running back Garrett Snow is the one who can swing the  game in the Eagle's direction by controlling the clock. QB Shane Bluhm completes 50 percent of his passes and has run for 45 yards per game.  Eagle Point 35 Springfield 31.

NORTH EUGENE HIGHLANDERS (0-4) AT ASHLAND GRIZZLIES (3-2):

North Eugene was competitive last week in a 34-27 loss to Willamette. The Highlanders turned the ball over on downs at the Willamette 17 yard line with four seconds remaining in the game. Ashland has won three games in a row following two losses on the road to start the season. The Ashland offense is improving after two early season games in which the offense sputtered and has averaged 34 points over the last three games.

Gary's Predictions:

Ashland's D is also improving.  The Grizzlies have held opponents to just under 12 points a games over the last three games.    Only Marist has scored more than two touchdowns against Ashland.  Football fans are going to think they are watching a bunch of jackrabbits play football.  Ashland qb Jake Scarmanich bounces around the field with ease as does North Eugene's Alex Wilson and crew.  This'll be a fun one to watch because of all of the explosive skills guys on the field. Ashland 35 North Eugene 14.

Bench Splinters....
I've been very mediocre in my weekly predictions this year.  So it helps me feel better when I go back to my September 9 pre league predictions.  I had Churchill finishing second to Marist in the MWL 6 league, which could still happen.  I also had Churchill second in the MWL 8 league, ahead of Ashland and Eagle Point.  Churchill lost to both of these teams this year.


If Marist and Sheldon go undefeated in regular season, how about a match up game during the play-in week?  The game could be a fundraiser in Autzen for World Peace.


Ashland might want to keep an eye on their freshman linebacker after the game this Friday.  Both teams wear red and the Highlanders could easily mistake a player in red as a North Eugene player and stick the player in the back seat of the bus for the trip back to Eugene.  I don't know if a Grizzlie would want to wear a kilt, but if North could pull off the trick of spiriting away frosh Mason Montgomery, they would have one of the best linebackers in the league for three more years.  The fantastic frosh is petite at 5'11" and 195 pounds.  That's an ouch if you get hit by him.  Montgomery leads Ashland in tackles and assists.  Tell me he plays baseball and crushes the ball.


Stats


I work with MaxPreps and most of the MWL 8 teams to help compile league stats.  Currently, six of the eight teams are inputting at least their offensive stats.  If your team is one of those that is behind in stats, please check to see if you can help the team statistician.  If the team stat person doesn't want to learn how to use the MaxPreps software, I can help by uploading the info.  MaxPrep results are compiled into a statewide and nationwide database.  It's fun to see the local kids names in the league, state and national stats.  The MWL 8 has six of the top 10 quarterbacks in 5A among the schools that are reporting to MaxPreps.  The teams reporting to MaxPreps include the top 11 teams in the latest OregonLive.com poll.   We don't have any runners in the top 10, but Marist's Silver and Park are 11 and 12.  Spikes is 14th and Foster is 16th.The MWL 8 has four receivers in the top 10 and eight of the top fifteen.  Our prolific passers hold six of the top eight positions in total offense, with Logan Silver's legs giving him the number one spot.