Most MWL fans are assuming that Thurston, Marshfield and Willamette will win on this very important Friday. However, it's not even close to automatic in any of the games.
The Willamette - North Eugene game will get down to if Willamette can control turnovers and penalties versus if the Highlanders can break out Michael Bibbee for big yards and clock control.
Have you realized this about these 0-3 in league teams? They are not out of the playoffs yet! There's still the possibility of getting in a three way tie for third with a 2-3 record.
Willamette
QB Dylan Geyer has been solid in league, completing 53% of his passes and averaging 201 yards per game. His primary target is senior Taylor Woodke. Woodke is dominating the league in stats and spectacular catches. The best defense against a 'Taylor Made' catch is to have an opposing parent shoot the ball out of the air if it's headed toward Woodke. Other key receivers are juniors Cameron Koehler (15 yards per catch in league) and Brandon Haines. RB Rafael Hidalgo was back in action last week after missing a game and a half. He responded with 102 yards, and better yet, didn't have a cast on his arm, so ball control was much improved. Having Hidalgo back at full speed and without the cast could go a long way in helping the Wolverines control their turnovers. Hidalgo is better able to secure the ball and having Hidalgo at full strength will slow down the Highlander pass rush.
North Eugene
The Highlanders live by the run or die by the run. And why not? It's a hoot for fans to watch an entire defense stack up to stop RB Michael Bibbee and usually fail. Thurston became the first team this year to hold Bibbee under 123 yards. Not surprisingly, now that were into league games with playoff spots on the line, teams are much more focused on stopping North's run. North's game plan will have to account for opponents having 11 players key on Bibbee. While Bibbee gets the attention, the league's most underrated player, junior Alex Wilson, has been having quite the year running and receiving. He's taken the few carries he gets and averaged 50 yards a game, and caught half of North's completions for another 40 yards per game.
On D, LB's Bibbee and Kyle DeHaven lead the Highlander charge. Junior DB's Jackson Landgreen and Wilson are the most likely to catch whatever the linebackers don't catch.
Prediction
I've seen both teams at least twice. I'm going with Willamette. I believe Wolverine turnovers will decrease rapidly with Hidalgo playing with two good paws. With fewer Willamette turnovers, it will take a huge night by Bibbee or a breakout by Wilson for the Highlanders to win.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Can Millers stop the Marshfield streak at 21?
The Millers last stopped the Pirates in 1987. The 1987 win broke a Pirate 20 year streak. The Millers are due.
Miller Advantages
The game is at Silke on grass. That's two big advantages for the Millers. One - Silke is a great environment for the Millers; covered stands, the giant Miller balloon looming over the opponents all night, a great band and the best cheerleading team in the state. 2 - the Pirates haven't played on grass in several weeks.
There are a lot of teams in the MWL with good team speed this year. Springfield is one of them, but they probably need everyone on hand. A big question for Springfield is "Will the speedy Camarena be ready to play?" An option to not having to chase down Pirates Tedder and Scoville is for every player to 'stay home' on D. I think that's too much to ask of 11 guys on a high school team. Heck, Pac-10 teams can't stay home when they play the U of O. Eventually, a player leaves home to follow a fake and the foot race is on. Another option is to send more players after Tedder and force the Pirates to pass.
Springfield junior QB Levi Green has really come on strong the last four games. He's consistently completing passes in the 60% range, and that includes games against Sherwood and Thurston. Green threw for 267 yards against the Colts and 166 against Churchill last week. Springfield has an unknown and almost all senior receiving corp. These guys are way better than the press they are getting. Jake Becker, Ellis McNulty, Nick Dillingham and Oliver Johnson have all been getting a lot of action in league ball. Becker and McNulty are the likely ones to pop a long score. Thomas Spikes and Devonte Smith picked up the load for Alex Camarena last week when Camarena was sidelined the entire game. Spikes and Smith ran for 157 yards combined.
This is a must win game for the Millers. A Springfield loss knocks the Millers out of the playoffs.
Pirate advantages
The Pirates have become an almost exclusively option team. Senior QB Kyle Tedder leads the league in rushing. Junior RB Ryan Scoville is the 'Quizz' on the team. He doesn't get the large number of carries like the OSU back, but when he does, he is gone. The guys pounding it up the middle are senior Talo Silver and junior Jorgen Mulkey. Don't expect either of these two to break the long one, but they are a load to bring down in short yardage situations. I'm sure the Pirates would like their passing game to blossom. Don't expect it to break out this week. The Pirates will be down one key receiver Friday. Do look for Chris Krajcir. He's a route guy with great hands who fights for and wins lots of jump balls.
Prediction
I've seen both teams twice. Neither team has been consistent enough for me to get overconfident about predicting this game. I'm going with the Pirates. They all but abandoned the passing game last week and still couldn't be stopped. If every Miller stays home on D every play, they can shut down the Pirates. But I can still see the few missed assignments by Willamette last week against Marshfield and I know how easy it is to get lulled into chasing the ball.
Miller Advantages
The game is at Silke on grass. That's two big advantages for the Millers. One - Silke is a great environment for the Millers; covered stands, the giant Miller balloon looming over the opponents all night, a great band and the best cheerleading team in the state. 2 - the Pirates haven't played on grass in several weeks.
There are a lot of teams in the MWL with good team speed this year. Springfield is one of them, but they probably need everyone on hand. A big question for Springfield is "Will the speedy Camarena be ready to play?" An option to not having to chase down Pirates Tedder and Scoville is for every player to 'stay home' on D. I think that's too much to ask of 11 guys on a high school team. Heck, Pac-10 teams can't stay home when they play the U of O. Eventually, a player leaves home to follow a fake and the foot race is on. Another option is to send more players after Tedder and force the Pirates to pass.
Springfield junior QB Levi Green has really come on strong the last four games. He's consistently completing passes in the 60% range, and that includes games against Sherwood and Thurston. Green threw for 267 yards against the Colts and 166 against Churchill last week. Springfield has an unknown and almost all senior receiving corp. These guys are way better than the press they are getting. Jake Becker, Ellis McNulty, Nick Dillingham and Oliver Johnson have all been getting a lot of action in league ball. Becker and McNulty are the likely ones to pop a long score. Thomas Spikes and Devonte Smith picked up the load for Alex Camarena last week when Camarena was sidelined the entire game. Spikes and Smith ran for 157 yards combined.
This is a must win game for the Millers. A Springfield loss knocks the Millers out of the playoffs.
Pirate advantages
The Pirates have become an almost exclusively option team. Senior QB Kyle Tedder leads the league in rushing. Junior RB Ryan Scoville is the 'Quizz' on the team. He doesn't get the large number of carries like the OSU back, but when he does, he is gone. The guys pounding it up the middle are senior Talo Silver and junior Jorgen Mulkey. Don't expect either of these two to break the long one, but they are a load to bring down in short yardage situations. I'm sure the Pirates would like their passing game to blossom. Don't expect it to break out this week. The Pirates will be down one key receiver Friday. Do look for Chris Krajcir. He's a route guy with great hands who fights for and wins lots of jump balls.
Prediction
I've seen both teams twice. Neither team has been consistent enough for me to get overconfident about predicting this game. I'm going with the Pirates. They all but abandoned the passing game last week and still couldn't be stopped. If every Miller stays home on D every play, they can shut down the Pirates. But I can still see the few missed assignments by Willamette last week against Marshfield and I know how easy it is to get lulled into chasing the ball.
Streak Week. Keep or Beat the Streaks.
Churchill 3-0 @ Thurston 3-0
It doesn't get any better than this. Thurston's high flying Colts have a 10 game league win streak going, but got hammered by 6A South Eugene, 49-14, earlier this season. Churchill has a 7 game win streak this year, but suffered a 48-6 loss to 6A Sheldon in the first game of the season. That gives both teams sweeps of non league 5A competition and three game sweeps of MWL opponents. A Churchill win clinches a number one playoff seed, as they would own wins over Marshfield and Thurston. A Thurston win sets up a regular season finale for the Colts in Coos Bay with a possible outcome of a three way tie for first.
So who wins? Everyone outside of Bailey Hill thinks it will be a Colt stampede. But hold on. None of Thurston's wins have come against a team with a winning record. And their lopsided wins over Willamette and Springfield came when the other team's primary running back was knocked out early. (Watch out Lancer backs)
Thurston is averaging 508 yards per game in league. Yikes! 290 yards in the air, mostly on the arm of Chance Hendrickson. Hendrickson is completing 68% of his passes, has 11 TD passes versus 3 ints, and is averaging 283 yards per game. Thurston is averaging 218 on the ground, mostly from junior Tyler Johnson (102 YPG) and senior Mike Livingston (70). The receiving corp is led by junior Jordan Demoss and seniors Jordan Loos and Livingston. (Andrew Woody is out for the season with a broken hand suffered before the third league game against North Eugene) All told, 12 different Colts have caught the ball in their three league games.
Thurston's D is led by last year's MWL Defensive Player of the Year, linebacker Kyle Wright, and junior lineman Kraig Akins. Definitely take your eyes of the ball for a few plays and watch these two on D. Team leaders in tackles include senior DB's Greg Nichols & Kody Powell and junior DB's Tanner Rhoades & Kristian Smith.
Churchill has put together it's usual high-octane offense. That's no surprise, but of note is that junior QB Spencer Savelich threw just four passes a game in pre league games, then was suddenly thrown into the position at Marshfield. Savelich responded with a 22 for 42 night and a come from behind win. Junior Brandon Determan had a great pre league as a receiver. Determan's preleague performance, along with the expected good stats from Sam Graham, gave hope to the Lancers that they would do well in league. I thought the Lancer's weren't spreading the ball around enough to get by the quick D's of Springfield and Willamette, but seniors Daniel Weyers and Josh Moreland have been in the receiving mix a lot more since league started. The Lancer's haven't found a feature back and have been been using junior Nick Bell and sophomore Aaron Ingram to pound out 4 yards a carry. Their sneaker back is Sam Graham, who doesn't get many touches because he's primarily a receiver, but when he does get called upon to run, he's gone.
On the D side of the ball, senior LB Kalen Dennis leads the Lancers in tackles. Right behind Dennis are LB Josh Moreland, DE Brynnan Hyland and DB Sam Graham.
I'm hoping for a great game. I've got to go with Thurston on The Farm. The Colts are the only team in the league that more than matches up with the Lancer's in speed and strength. I don't think the gap is huge, but the Colts are deep and just don't let up. Both teams have had several games where they are slow out of the chute. If either team gets out too late, the other will need to stomp on them early, as both teams have shown they love to explode in the second half.
Churchill 3-0 @ Thurston 3-0
It doesn't get any better than this. Thurston's high flying Colts have a 10 game league win streak going, but got hammered by 6A South Eugene, 49-14, earlier this season. Churchill has a 7 game win streak this year, but suffered a 48-6 loss to 6A Sheldon in the first game of the season. That gives both teams sweeps of non league 5A competition and three game sweeps of MWL opponents. A Churchill win clinches a number one playoff seed, as they would own wins over Marshfield and Thurston. A Thurston win sets up a regular season finale for the Colts in Coos Bay with a possible outcome of a three way tie for first.
So who wins? Everyone outside of Bailey Hill thinks it will be a Colt stampede. But hold on. None of Thurston's wins have come against a team with a winning record. And their lopsided wins over Willamette and Springfield came when the other team's primary running back was knocked out early. (Watch out Lancer backs)
Thurston is averaging 508 yards per game in league. Yikes! 290 yards in the air, mostly on the arm of Chance Hendrickson. Hendrickson is completing 68% of his passes, has 11 TD passes versus 3 ints, and is averaging 283 yards per game. Thurston is averaging 218 on the ground, mostly from junior Tyler Johnson (102 YPG) and senior Mike Livingston (70). The receiving corp is led by junior Jordan Demoss and seniors Jordan Loos and Livingston. (Andrew Woody is out for the season with a broken hand suffered before the third league game against North Eugene) All told, 12 different Colts have caught the ball in their three league games.
Thurston's D is led by last year's MWL Defensive Player of the Year, linebacker Kyle Wright, and junior lineman Kraig Akins. Definitely take your eyes of the ball for a few plays and watch these two on D. Team leaders in tackles include senior DB's Greg Nichols & Kody Powell and junior DB's Tanner Rhoades & Kristian Smith.
Churchill has put together it's usual high-octane offense. That's no surprise, but of note is that junior QB Spencer Savelich threw just four passes a game in pre league games, then was suddenly thrown into the position at Marshfield. Savelich responded with a 22 for 42 night and a come from behind win. Junior Brandon Determan had a great pre league as a receiver. Determan's preleague performance, along with the expected good stats from Sam Graham, gave hope to the Lancers that they would do well in league. I thought the Lancer's weren't spreading the ball around enough to get by the quick D's of Springfield and Willamette, but seniors Daniel Weyers and Josh Moreland have been in the receiving mix a lot more since league started. The Lancer's haven't found a feature back and have been been using junior Nick Bell and sophomore Aaron Ingram to pound out 4 yards a carry. Their sneaker back is Sam Graham, who doesn't get many touches because he's primarily a receiver, but when he does get called upon to run, he's gone.
On the D side of the ball, senior LB Kalen Dennis leads the Lancers in tackles. Right behind Dennis are LB Josh Moreland, DE Brynnan Hyland and DB Sam Graham.
I'm hoping for a great game. I've got to go with Thurston on The Farm. The Colts are the only team in the league that more than matches up with the Lancer's in speed and strength. I don't think the gap is huge, but the Colts are deep and just don't let up. Both teams have had several games where they are slow out of the chute. If either team gets out too late, the other will need to stomp on them early, as both teams have shown they love to explode in the second half.
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