Thursday, September 9, 2010

Chris's Eagle Point - Churchill preview, Gary's Predictions

Chris Parks preview of the Eagle Point at Churchill game.

If you don’t mind traveling, the Sheldon at Hillsboro game is an excellent choice, with the defending 5A Champs Hillsboro Spartans (#5 Oregon Live Poll) taking on the defending 6A Champs Sheldon Irish (#3 Oregon Live Poll). The drive to Hillsboro might nix that, so with that in mind, the matchup between Churchill and Eagle Point would be my first choice for local fans looking to watch Friday night high school football.


This is the season opener for the Churchill Lancers. Eagle Point hits the road again for their second game of the season. The Eagles lost at #5 Mountain View 28-30 last Friday night. The Eagles nearly pulled the upset, leading late in the fourth quarter until Mountain View scored the game winning touchdown with 1:07 left in the game. Eagle Point quarterback Shane Blum was 13 for 30 for 142 yards and one interception. Seven Eagle Point receivers caught passes for the Eagles. Eagle Point displayed a balanced offense rushing for 167 yards on 37 rush plays. Aaron Foster led the way on 13 rushes for 87 yards and three touchdowns. Eagle Point lost the turnover battle with one interception and four fumbles lost. The performance was enough to impress some voters, as despite the loss the Eagles picked up enough votes to debut at #12 in the Oregon Live poll.

Having not played last week, Churchill will be eager to get their high octane offense off the ground. The Lancers have two solid quarterbacks with starting experience in Spencer Savelich and Derek Godfrey and two experienced running backs in Nick Bell and Aaron Ingram. Churchill may struggle a bit in the first quarter as they work through typical first game nerves and game speed timing, but the Eagle Point defense may be in for a long night if they can’t slow down the Lancer offense. This game should have plenty of offense and it may come down to the team with the better defense prevailing.

Gary's Predictions:
Eagle Point at Churchill
Tough call.  My gut says Eagle Point.  My brain says Churchill.  Eagle Point has a ton of returning starters And as Chris pointed out, they had five turnovers last week and barely lost to a top ten team.  I'm guessing that they won't fumble four times this week.  The keys for Churchill are getting up to speed on D and clicking on O with no penalties after a first week bye.  My brain says 7th year coach Darrel Mehl will be able to pull it off.  Note that my wife often points out that using my brain is not always wise.
Churchill 28 Eagle Point 21
 
Springfield at Willamette
Four MWL seeds will earn automatic seeds into the round of 32.  These two teams are likely to be among them.  This will be a QB battle with fireworks.  The experienced Green versus sophomore Smith.  I'm going with the homefield advantage and I like the Granillo experiment at tight end and short yardage back. This will be a great game to watch.
Willamette 28 Springfield 27
 
North Eugene at Marshfield.
Two MWL teams will have to play a play-in game to get into the round of 32.  It's beginning to look like these are the two teams.  A recent article in The World reported that Marshfield will play all 'home' games at North Bend due to the turf at Susick Stadium failing an impact test.  This might not be as bad as it seems.  It's been awhile since the Pirates have filled Susick Stadium and it should be a lot easier for the Pirates to fill the stands in the smaller, but outstanding North Bend facility. Even though North returns a lot of experience and a lot of skills guys, I'm going with Marshfield as I expect a huge improvement over last week's loss to the Bulldogs.
Marshfield 21 North Eugene 14
 
Ashland at Marist
I have to believe Marist is going to blanket Ashland's receiver's and pressure qb Scarmanich (221 yards last week).  Ashland's running backs will have to get the Grizzlies in gear.  I don't have a feel for the type of game Ashland plays and how hard they bring it on, so it's hard to know how'll they will fare against Marist's intensity.  I have seen Marist enough to know how they play, even with their injuries.
Marist 35 Ashland 14
 
Last week I was 3-3.  Two losses to 4A teams really hurt.  Remember that even though the MWL and SO playoff seeds are based on how teams finish in their respective leagues, each game is important because a team's playoff opponent will be determined on a team's RPI. 
 
Stats
I've created a widget that combines players stats from the MWL and SO leagues.  Only teams that have input stats into the MaxPreps.com web site show up in the widget.  It usually takes a couple of weeks for teams to get started on their stats.  So far three of the six teams that played last weekend have entered stats. I'll be helping a couple of other teams with their stats soon.  Hopefully, we can get all eight teams on board.  All league selections will be made from a combination of the MWL and SO leagues.  The widget will be a way to compare performances during the season.  Here's a link to the page with the widget.
 
League/Seeds Predictions
Final league predictions for MWL, SO and the league for all star selection, the MWL/SO league.

Polls close at 7PM on game night.  Vote on each of the four games. MWL polls for September 10

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