End Regular Season - RPI, Stats & Playoffs

My Honda Accord has passed on to Totaled Car Heaven.  I picked up my check from a lifesize cardboard cutout of Flo, the TV spokeswoman for Progressive insurance.  More about that later.

Funny RPI stuff.

Marist and Marshfield didn't play until Saturday.  The RPI's were adjusted for all teams based on Friday night's results and before the Marist-Marshfield game.  Marist dropped six points, while Marshfield gained eight points.  Then Marist picked up a win at Marshfield.  Road wins are worth more than home wins, so I thought Marist would at least break even in their RPI rating.  Nope, Marist lost eight more points.  Marshfield picked up 20 RPI points for the loss, a net gain of 28 for the weekend.

Marist          Won on the road        down 14
Ashland        Won at home              up 19
Eagle Point    Lost on the road         up 3
Churchill        Won at home             down 11
Marshfield      Lost at home              up 28
Springfield      Won at home             down 16
Willamette      Lost on the road         even
North Eugene Lost on the road         down 2

Note that three winners lost RPI points.  Two losers gained RPI points and one loser broke even.

All in all, I think the RPI is doing a fine job.  There just aren't enough games against other leagues.  At least the RPI and seeding will keep the top seeds from meeting before the quarterfinals.  There are usually three or four very good teams in 5A.  Then there are another few teams that could upset them by playing a great game and getting some breaks.  But it will be rare for a 9 or lower seed to upset a top four seed.

Stats

Six teams have updated their MaxPreps stats with final regular season stats.  North Eugene has five of seven games loaded into MaxPreps, while Marshfield doesn't  use MaxPreps.  My stats are a little more thorough than MaxPreps as I have been able to find some missing stats for North Eugene and Marshfield in the newspapers.  For my stats go here.  MaxPreps stats are more fun to play with however.  You can slice them and dice them anyway you want, including specific games for individuals, and they even have a total yardage category (combining passing and rushing only). For MaxPreps stats go here.

Thomas Spikes won the rushing title with 1033 yards or 129 yards per game.  His big outing of 305 yards against Eagle Point is what put him in first and allowed him to finish over 100 yards ahead of the second leading rusher.

Sophomore Kamerun Smith won the passing yardage title with 1777 yards and an average of 222 yards per game.  Marist's Logan Silver was the only starting QB with a quarterback rating over 100.  He crushed it at 127.  Logan was second in league in both rushing and passing yardage, making him the league leader in total yardage at 2599 yards.  That's 325 yards per game - for just one person.  Yikes.  Ashland's Jacob Scarmanich also broke 2000 yards.  He totaled 2060 yards if you add his 148 yards receiving to his passing and rushing yards.  [MaxPreps uses the NFL quarterback rating.  I use the NCAA rating and have included Darren Thomas of the Ducks for compariston.  Logan's rating is way ahead of Thomas's]


I have mentioned that it has been a fantastic year for quarterbacks several times this fall.  Four quarterbacks finished with over 200 yards per game passing. And three of the others are over 200 yards per game of total yardage because of their good blend of running and passing abilities.  That means that there had to be a lot of receivers with great stats.  I've mentioned the receivers individually a lot this year.  The leader at the end of the season is Springfield's John Davidson with 741 yards or 93 per game.  Brandon Determan led the league in receptions with 51.  Marist's Taylor Walcott (612 yds) was the only receiver to officially break 100 yards per game - 102.  However teammate Austin Baird (635) averaged over 100 yards per game in the games he caught a pass.  But he had one game (the game that Walcott returned after missing two and a half games) where he played but didn't catch a pass.  Cameron Koehler (621) and Deaunte Brown (602) of Willamette were also in the exclusive 600 yard club.

Play-In and Play-Off

In case you haven't seen all of the matchups in one place

• Winner of (Eagle Point at Dallas) at Marist (Marist traveled to Eagle Point earlier this fall)
• Winner (South Albany at Willamette) at Ashland (Ashland traveled to Willamette earlier this fall)
• Silverton at Churchill
• Lebanon at Springfield
• Marshfield at Crescent Valley
• Winner (North Eugene at Summit) at Corvallis

I think we have a decent chance of moving all three teams playing Play-In games into the round of 32.  RPI wise, Eagle Point is way ahead of Dallas.  The South Albany at Willamette game will feature two teams giving up huge points on defense.  But Willamette has been more prolific on O.  North Eugene and Summit are evenly matched and there is no reason for North's speedy guys not to win on the other side of the mountains.

Reviewing my preseason prediction:

My official pre league prediction was made after the first round of non MWL 8 games.  In the MWL 6, I had Marist and Churchill 1-2, even though Churchill didn't play the first week.  I went with Willamette third, Springfield fourth, Marshfield fifth and North Eugene sixth.  I was pretty close. 

I thought Willamette was hurt hard by losing Danny Granillo, a two way first teamer in 2009.  Granillo switched to tight end and was becoming a monster when he blew out his ACL during the second game against Springfield.  Also, the Wolverines weren't helped by not having Jordan Visarraga at running back for most of their games. 

Springfield took a second game hit with two way second teamer Kameron Bates blowing his ACL in the same game that Willamette's Granillo injured his.  Neither of these teams has the depth of Marist to stay at a high level when they lose key players to injury.  Marist, on other hand, lost three or four key players in the first game against Corvallis, and had players that acted like Terminator's and morphed into perfect replacements.  In any event, I hate to see a player go down, especially in his senior year.

I ranked Ashland third in the MWL 8 in my pre-season guess.  But I dropped Ashland hard to sixth after they lost to Klamath Union 14-7 and moved Eagle Point to third for my final prediction.  Little did I know KU would turn out to be pretty good - they haven't lost to an Oregon team yet.  Ashland Coach Hall must be smiling.

Flo and My Totaled Car

Flo is the female TV personality for Progressive Insurance.  She's always dressed in white and wears the bright red lipstick.  Flo is always talking about discounts.  "More than one car - discount", "Motorcycle - discount", "Accident Free - discount"...  Well add this - "Totaled Car - Discount".  Very funny, Flo

Wife's birthday and Friday Night Football

I negotiated watching Sheldon at Thurston on TV while listening to Springfield and North Eugene, rather than leaving her at home and going to a game.  Our second grade neighbor came over and helped me sing 'Happy Birthday' and I was good for the night.  That was a close one.

Oct 22/23 Predictions

Haven't been quite on top of my website the last three days because I was rear ended (totaled my car) by (choose 1):

a) A U of O student who was texting
b) A parent who thought I should have mentioned his kid as a first team all leaguer
c) A bicyclist in downtown Eugene

Predictions:

MWL fans are outguessing me by a margin of 3 so far this season.  I don't anticipate being able to close the gap this week because as of right now the fans and I are in total agreement about this week's games.  I have a post on OregonLive's forum for folks to rig the fan poll so that fans lose and I win.  I'm embarrassed that the fans are whipping me.

Eagle Point at Ashland.

This could be a fantastic game to watch. 

• If Eagle Point can play like they did against Churchill.... starting the game with an unstoppable passing game and closing the game with an unstoppable running game.  Eagle QB Shane Bluhm is fourth in state in total yardage at the 5A level.  Eagle Aaron Foster is second in league in scoring, third in rushing and seventh in receiving.  Garrett the Snowman is sixth in rushing and has hauled in 15 passes..
• If Ashland can continue to employ the two Jake qb set up and rack up huge chunks on the ground and air.  Jake Scarmanich is second in state in total yardage. Receivers Dodds and Heater are ninth and tenth in league.  RB Jackson Volz is tenth in league rushing.

I'm going with Ashland's five game winning streak and home field advantage.  Anything can happen. Enjoy this game if you can.  You'll be watching a lot of all leaguers in what should be a fast hard hitting game.

Marist at Marshfield (North Bend)

The Spartans are marching to North Bend and won't get there until Saturday.  So we'll have to wait til late Saturday or Sunday morning to get the final results and final RPI calculations.  (There might be another RPI calculation after the five playin games.  If there is, it won't affect the RPI much)

Anything can happen on the bay.  It would be fantastic for the Marshfield program and seniors to pull this one out.  Watch Marshfield's Ryan Scoville and Marist's Taylor Walcott.  Both are explosive players.  It should be no surprise to anyone as both of these players were in the state finals in the 100 meter dash (5A and 4A).  It'll take a magic and well executed game plan for the Pirates to prevail.  But if they can use RB's Scoville, John Davidson, Dallas Milburn and receivers Erin Griffin and Dalton Milburn effectively they have a chance.    Even though Marshfield has yet to lose an official home game this season, I've got to go with the Spartans.

Willamette at Churchill.

The forecast is for rain, but don't expect rain to stop these two qb's from passing like crazy.  Willamette soph Kamerun Smith leads the league in passing yardage. Churchill's Derek Godfrey is second in average per game behind Smith.  Churchill would be favored even without rain, but rain plays even more into Churchill's hand.  With running backs Aaron Ingram and Kingsley Nkwanta, they have proven they can rack up major ground yardage.  That's something Willamette hasn't enjoyed, although Wolverine Skyler Mohr is a load to tackle.  When the teams line up on O, always check where Churchill's Brandon Determan and Willamette's Cameron Koehler and Deaunte Brown are.  If the ball goes in the air, it's likely to reach those guys and fireworks will follow.

Churchill wins this one, but enjoy some of the best receivers in the league.

North Eugene at Springfield

North Eugene's heartbreak kids get one more shot at victory in Springfield.  Alex Wilson, one of my favorite receivers last year, has been an explosive RB and kick return man this year.  His receiving duties have been successfully taken over by Colin Mender and junior Ryan Koth. Mender being the big play guy at 18 yards per catch.  QB Dylan Lubonski is putting up respectable numbers (they'd be very good in most leagues).

Springfield's Levi Green has an outstanding quarterback rating and is racking up passing yardage (3rd in league).  Springfield has the league's leading rusher in Thomas Spikes and the leading receiver in John Davidson.  Springfield's Achilles heal has been it's defense.  North is explosive enough to take advantage of the Miller D.  Still the game is at Silke and if it's raining, Spikes can just pound it all night.  I'm predicting Springfield. 

Normally the last night of league is the end of the season for some teams, but everyone has at least one more game.  Still, take some time to watch some of the players you don't normally follow - like lineman or DB's.  It's fun to follow them on a play from beginning to end, and you'll learn to appreciate their efforts.

If I find a car by Friday night, I'm thinking of going to the Thurston-Sheldon game.  However, my wife may not consider high school hamburgers a decent birthday dinner.

Marshfield, NE, RPI, All League

I decided to skip the Sheldon-Roseburg game last Friday.  A very reliable birdy told me that Roseburg wouldn't be able to keep up with Sheldon. He was correct.  Instead of watching the Irish, I took in the Marshfield at Churchill game.  I just had to see the new wildcat offense that the Pirates had installed.

Marshfield at Churchill

This game was much closer than the final score.  The game was tied at halftime.  And a pair of potential picks by the Pirates in the second half could have changed the outcome.  One pick was a great defensive play by Marshfield's #10 Kody Crook, but the official ruled the pass incomplete. The other potential pick was a certain pick six by a Pirate who did a great job of reading and jumping a Godfrey pass to the flat.  But the pigskin squirted away and the Marshfield crowd and this unbiased photographer let out a collective and very slow "Ohhhhh".  It would have taken a near perfect game for Marshfield to win, and they were in it through the third quarter.  The Pirates can build on the last two weeks.

Marshfield, which has lost every other game while winning each home game, looked like a very different team than the Pirates I saw at Springfield.  Gone were the nine turnovers.  And the O linemen stayed with it until the very end.  The wildcat proved successful, with Ryan Scoville handling the ball quite a bit.  But Churchill could stack up against the run and clog the short passing routes because the Pirates weren't a serious threat to go deep with a pass. 

Aaron Ingram returned to the Lancers after missing last week's game against Marist.  His return definitely helped.  Ingram (19 carries for 108 yards) and Kingsley Nkwanta (10 for 71) are a couple of tough horses to pull down.  Having them on the field keeps the opponent's D from sitting on the pass.  Plus I think the effort to bring down these two backs helped wear down the Pirate D line in the second half.  Godfrey piloted Air Lancer to success once again.  Godrey, Determan and crew were just too much for the Pirates to handle.  Coach Mehl has to be happy with his offensive balance.  The Lancers ran for 204 yards, while picking up 246 through the air.

All in all, I wasn't disappointed that I skipped the Sheldon game.  I wanted to take a look at how Sheldon might stack up against Marist.  I'll watch Sheldon later.  I saw a good game at Churchill. 

North Eugene

Another heartbreaker for North Eugene.  This time Eagle Point put together a late-in-the-game effort to beat the Highlanders 32-30.  North Eugene lost another late-in-the-game match early in the season when Marshfield scored late to steal the win.  And finally, North had a very realistic shot against Willamette, but a game tying drive by the Highlanders ended at the Wolverine 14.  You have to hand it to the Highlander's for playing hard through all of the adversity.  They'll get their final shot at a league victory when they travel to Springfield Friday.

North Eugene coach Eric Johannsen is in a tough and unenviable position of trying to grow the numbers of football players in his program in a school with a small student body for a 5A school.  More players mean more depth, fresher players and more competition among Highlanders.  He's fortunate to have a senior class that has provided excitement for the program.  Dylan Lubonski, Alex Wilson, Jackson Landgreen, and Colin Mender were all exciting on offence and special teams.  It's going to be tough to replace these guys and several good linemen and linebackers.

Fun RPI stuff

RPI recap:
Marist           won - RPI down 23
Ashland         won - RPI up      18
Eagle Point    won - RPI down 21
Churchill        won - RPI up      19
Springfield      lost - RPI up        3
Marshfield      lost - RPI down   4
Willamette      lost - RPI up      55
North Eugene lost - RPI up      15

• Marshfield's RPI should go up this weekend, win or lose,  because they host Marist. 
• On the other hand, Marshfield's win-loss record could pull Marist's RPI down even if the Spartans win.  But if Marist wins, a win on the road is worth more than a win at home, so maybe Marit will break even.  If Marist should lose, would the Spartan RPI go up because Marshfield's record would improve? 
• A win by Churchill at home over Willamette might not help the Lancers' RPI.  A home win doesn't count as much as an away win, and Willamette's record will drag down Churchill's RPI.  Which brings me to....

Marshfield's home town paper, The World, published an on-line article that states that after the Marist game "The Pirates will have a bye...before visiting the runner up in the tough Mid-Willamette League."  That makes it sound like there is no dream in Coos Bay of a major upset of Marist.  Hopefully, the writer meant to tie that sentence into the previous paragraph which states the 'likely' outcome is that Marshfield will get the fourth seed in the MWL. 

In any event, the minor boo-boo made me think of what Marshfield's coach Justin Ainsworth's preparation speeches to his players will be before the Marist game this week now that he has seen the article which basically mailed in the score.  "Lads.  Our RPI goes up whether or not we beat Marist. So, the outcome is no big deal.  Just go out and have fun."  My dreamstate speech would be, "We're moving Dalton Milburn to the backfield and lining him up one foot behind our guards.  We're putting him in motion as a blocking back, sort of like a puling guard, to pick up a head of  steam and see what he can to do to Devereux and Mayes.  We're gonna have Scoville running and hiding behind Dalton. Dalton is so huge (especially to the Churchill field announcer last weekend) Marist won't know where Scoville is until he is long gone."

For those of you not at the Churchill game, the announcer was so mesmerized by Dalton Milburn's size that midway through the game he said over the PA system, "For those of  you wondering, Dalton Milburn is 6'6" and 260 pounds."  You know what? I really was wondering and I forgot to pick up a program.  You'll see more of Dalton on the basketball court.

SOC championship game


It's an all animal game in Ashland.  Grizzlies and Eagles.  The MWL only has one animal, the Wolverines.  I really want to sneak down to see this game.  I have to believe that there will be a lot more intensity for this local match up than what I have seen out of these two teams when they played up here.  Unfortunately, someone in my household turns 39 again this weekend and I would not survive a trip to Ashland without scoring some Shakespeare matinee tickets.  More about this game in the previews later this week.

All League Thoughts

The MWL had well over 80 positions filled when we had just six teams.  Will we will have over 100 all league spots now that we have eight teams?

Quarterback:

• Silver looks to be a shoo in for first team.  In a year with a lot of good quarterbacks, Silver is great.  I guess we could discount his performance because he never faced Marist. 
• If you had to just stick with two more all league quarterbacks, who would they be?  I'm thinking it's among Scarmanich, Godfrey and Green.  Their quarterback rating indexes are fairly high for high school quarterbacks. 
• Green's touchdown to interception ratio is fantastic. Godfrey's td to int ratio is not nearly as good as Green's. Advantage Green
• Godfrey has almost as many yards as Green, but Churchill has played one less game. Advantage Godfrey.
• That brings us to Scarmanich.  Scarmanich is number two in total yardage in the MWL 8, whether or not  you include his receiving yards. Advantage Scarmanich.
• Scarmanich has delivered five wins in a row against MWL 6 teams.  Big advantage Scarmanich. 
• That leaves out Kamerun Smith, the league's leading passer in yards, Shane Bluhm third in league and state in total yardage (among teams reporting to MaxPreps) and Dylan Lubonski. It was a very good year for quarterbacks. (Marshfield is now running the wildcat and spreads it's qb touches around a lot.) 

So if you were one of the coaches, would you try and pick just one qb for first team, one for second team and one for honorable mention?  Or, do you plug in six or seven qb's?

By the way, only one regularly starting qb returns next year.  That's the league leader in yardage - Willamette's sophomore, Kamerun Smith.

Receiver:

If there were so many hot quarterbacks this year, there had to be a lot of top receivers.  I don't know where you draw the line:

• Springfield's John Davidson leads the league with 604 yards
• Marist has two players with over 500 yards, Junior Taylor Walcott and sophomore Austin Baird.  They'll be back.
• Willamette has two stellar receivers in Cameron Koehler and Deaunte Brown, both in the top 5 of the MWL in yards. 
• Churchill's Brandon Determan is right behind Davidson in total yardage at 598.

These are probably the top six receivers in the league.  Might want to discount Willamette's receivers yardage a little because of Willamette's focus on passing.  That's pretty much what the Wolverines do.  On the other hand, it had to be tough for these guys to get catches if defenses planned accordingly.

A couple of North Eugene receivers had some solid stats.  North played one less game  than most teams, plus I'm missing one game of stats.  The Highlander's Colin Mender and junior Ryan Koth put up nice stats.  Marshfield's Evan Griffen might have been a giant force on any other team in the league.  The Pirates just didn't pass much this year .  (Evan was injured for several games, so you may not have seen him)

Running Backs

I think they should have two running back categories.  Feature Back for the lucky guys who get all the carries.  Pounding Back for the guys who do the dirty work of lead blocking and get the ball on the goal line.

Feature Backs (Minimum 50 Carries - about 7 a game)


Thomas Spikes, Aaron Foster, Greg Park, Aaron Ingram. Ryan Scoville

Pounding Backs ( Minimum 30 carries - about 4 a game):
Garrett Snow, Tyler Davidson, Jackson Volz, Skyler Mohr

Snow and Ingram will be back next year.

Linemen:

I have no idea how anyone can choose all star linemen. Who's keeping track of offensive stats?  I think they should give all of the starting linemen in the league ballots that have the names of all of the starting linemen in the league.  Players couldn't vote for their own teammates.  DB's the same way, but  just backs and receivers get to vote on the DB's.  All offensive players could vote on linebackers.

Any ball handlers I forgot to mention who are as good as or better than the players I mentioned?  Please respond via the comment section of this blog or email me at mwlnow@yahoo.com

Oct 15 Previews and Predictions

Once again thanks to Chris Park for the Previews.

MIDWESTERN LEAGUE PREVIEW WEEK 7

Fans have four games to choose from this week with all four local teams taking the field for home games in the Eugene/Springfield metro area. Two games stand out as potentially entertaining and for post season implications. The biggest is Marshfield at Churchill, as both teams are still in the hunt for the Midwestern League title.

MARSHFIELD PIRATES (2-1, 3-3) AT CHURCHILL LANCERS (2-1, 2-3):

Marshfield fans are wishing this game was at home, where the Pirates are undefeated. But it is on the road at Churchill and Marshfield has yet to win a road game this year. They have also not won back to back games or lost back to back games. Erratic is the best adjective to describe their play so far this year. At times they have played very well (41-32 win at home versus Eagle Point and last week’s 59-14 home win over Willamette). But then how to explain the 6-50 loss at Springfield and 9-35 loss at Ashland).

Churchill had a rough go of it last week in a 45-6 loss to Marist. The Churchill defense gave up 35 points in the first quarter! Junior running back Aaron Ingram was injured and missed the game versus Marist. His status for returning is unknown.

Both teams are still in the race for the Midwestern League title and #1 seed for the first and second round play in games.Churchill needs to win this game and then get a little help from Marshfield next week and hope the Pirates can defeat Marist. If Marshfield wins this game and then defeats Marist next week, they will be the league champions.

Seeding for first and second round play in games is a stake.

• The #1 seed will host the winner of Mid Willamette Conference #7 seed versus Southern Oregon #2 seed.
• The #2 seed from the Midwestern league will host the #5 seed from the Mid Willamette Conference.
• The #3 seed from the Midwestern league will host the #3 seed from the Mid Willamette Conference.

Collectively, the Midwestern League is 1-2 versus the Mid Willamette Conference with the sole win Marist’s season opening home victory over Corvallis 42-14. Willamette lost to South Albany at home in the season opener, 34-35 and Springfield lost at home to Silverton 28-35.

Gary's Prediction:  I have no clue as the Pirates installed the wildcat last week and went wild on O, and I don't know if Aaron Ingram will be playing for the Lancers.  The MWL fan poll says that 62% are predicting a Churchill win.  The fans have been outperforming me lately.  So I'll trust them.  Churchill in a high scoring affair.

ASHLAND GRIZZLIES (4-2) AT SPRINGFIELD MILLERS (2-4):

Ashland won this game last year 24-7 in Ashland. The Grizzlies have won four straight after two losses to start the season (7-14 at Klamath Union and 0-31 at Marist) and appear to be hitting their stride. The offense has improved with the two quarterback system of Jake McCoy and Jake Scarminach. Scarminach has rushed for 505 yards and 4 touchdowns and thrown for 803 yards and 7 touchdowns, while McCoy has 337 yards passing and 5 touchdowns.

Springfield has struggled with three consecutive losses now to Marist, Churchill and Eagle Point. Senior quarterback Levi Green has passed for 1,217 yards on 112 completions and 199 attempts with 15 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. Senior running back Thomas Spikes leads the Midwestern League in rushing with 755 yards on 102 carries. The defense has been the issue for Springfield, giving up 108 points in the last three games. The Millers still have a reasonable shot for third in the Midwestern League. Next week they face North Eugene to conclude the Miller regular season.

Gary's Prediction:  Ashland has been the only team other than Marist to develop consistency.  Ashland 35 Springfield 28.

MARIST SPARTANS (6-0) AT WILLAMETTE WOLVERINES (1-5):

Marist continues to roll along and looked very impressive in a 45-0 win over Churchill last week. The offense is firing on all cylinders under the capable arm and legs of senior quarterback/running back Logan Silver. He has passed for 1,331 yards and 16 touchdowns and run for 683 yards and 9 touchdowns. The Marist defense is loaded with experienced seniors and recorded its third shutout of the year. So far this season the Marist defense has given up 26 points in six games, an amazing average of 4 points per game!

Willamette is led by Sophomore quarterback Kamerun Smith who has passed for 1,493 yards on 101 completions and 203 attempts. He has 9 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The Willamette defense has given up 269 points thus far this year and could be in for a long night against Silver and the Spartans.

Gary's Predition:  My wife, a principal in the Bethel School District, is going to check this game out for me.  Marist by a lot.


EAGLE POINT EAGLES (3-3) AT NORTH EUGENE HIGHLANDERS (0-5):

Eagle Point was flying high until two recent losses in a row to Marshfield and Marist. They showed some resiliency and rebounded at home with a 31-24 win over Springfield last week. Eagle Point has been laying the points on the old MWL teams. The Eagles poorest offensive outing against the old MWL is 31 points.

Fortunately for the Highlanders, the Eagles have also been opening the door for the opponents’ offense, giving up at least 3 tds to each of the old MWL teams.. North Eugene will need to continue that trend and score lots of points against Eagle Point because the Eagles offense is diverse and athletic and will certainly be moving the ball against the North Eugene defense.

Gary's prediction:  This should be a fun game to watch.  Both teams are explosive. Lot's of long gainers in this one.  Eagle Point wins with a little more firepower.

MWL fans have outpredicted me 20 to 17.  I won't be closing the gap this week because we are on the same page this week.  Wait until the playoffs! I"ll crush you.

OTHER GAMES THIS WEEK FOR 6A MIDWESTERN LEAGUE TEAMS:

#4 Roseburg is at #1 Sheldon.

Sheldon (629 RPI) and Roseburg (595 RPI) have the two lowest RPI’s of the four undefeated teams at the 6A level. That means that they haven’t played anyone yet. You won’t be able to say that after Friday. Both teams might benefit RPI-wise by playing each other. This game will be on TV - KEZI

Thurston is at South Eugene.

Have you noticed that Thurston is doing quite well in the 6A? The Colts are 3-1 in league and 4-2 overall. This is a game to establish the Colts as the second best 6A team in the Eugene-Springfield area. If Thurston beats South Eugene Friday, they can look forward to playing Sheldon the next week. A Thurston upset of Sheldon, following a win over South, would make the Colts the Eugene-Springfield 6A champ and put them in position to earn the second seed or even a part of a three way tie for first.

Marist - Churchill, Wildcat, RPI and more

Churchill at Marist

I went to the Churchill-Marist game last Thursday hoping to see some fireworks and to see an old MWL team at least put some first half points on the board against Marist.  The stands were full for this game for the league lead.  Churchill brought a large crowd and it was Marist's homecoming.  But on the field during warmups there wasn't any electricity among the teams.  Marist was methodically going through their pre game routine, while Churchill was just quiet.  Perhaps the Lancers were thinking about playing without Aaron Ingram, who sat out with a rib injury. 

I hadn't seen Marist since their opener against Corvallis.  Marist looked a little rough that game.  Probably it was because it was the opener and because they lost their starting QB after he completed his first pass of the season early in the game.  And they lost their primary receiver, Taylor Walcott, and key linebacker, Will Swindling.  But since the 'Return of the Injured' in the fourth game of the season against Springfield, the Spartans have exploded in the first quarter of each game.  The Spartans laid 35 points on Churchill in the first quarter.   Maybe Churchill's Aaron Ingram can pull off a 'Return of the Injured' and jazz up the Lancers for their last two games.

Willamette at Marshfield

During my preseason articles I repeatedly mentioned that I thought Marshfield had to get Ryan Scoville more touches.  I hadn't thought about making him quarterback in a wildcat formation.  One of the many reasons I am not a coach.  What a great idea for a team struggling in its passing game and needing something to ignite the players.  Marshfield, like Marist, had their own 'Return of the Injured'.  Lineman Johnny Castro and DB/WR Evan Griffan made huge contributions to the Pirates. Hats off to Marshfield coach Justin Ainsworth for keeping the ship afloat after the big loss in Springfield.

I'm strongly leaning towards going to the Sheldon - Roseburg game this weekend with Marshfield at Churchill being my backup.  I want to see some 6A ball and I want to see how Sheldon and Roseburg compare to Marist.   But how can I pass up seeing how Churchill will try and handle the Wildcat?  Remember, the Pirate's Scoville was in the final heat of the 5A 100 meter race at state.

Stats - Did Springfield's Thomas Spikes really rush for over 300 yards?

Yes he did.  But, get this, he didn't score!  The poor guy.  "Coach, I've carried the ball a million times and averaged 15 yards a carry.  Can't you give me the ball inside the ten?"  Spikes must have been one tired puppy.

Spikes 300 yard night put him into the lead in league rushing.  Logan Silver is the league's only other 100 yards per game rusher. 

Willamette's Kamerun Smith still leads the league in passing yardage at nearly 250 yards per game.  But it's Marist's Logan Silver and Springfield's Levi Green who are the efficiency leaders.  Both have over 200 yards per game and are above that critical 3 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio.  Churchill's Derek Godfrey is second in yards per game with 223.  Now that Godfrey has Marist behind him, he may move into the lead in average yards per game.  He'll have trouble leading the league in total yardage because Churchill is playing one less game than the other MWL 8 teams.

It's definitely a 'Year of the Quarterbacks" in the MWL.  And that means it also the 'Year of the Receiver'.  Their are tons of receivers that are a hoot to watch.   With two league games to go, who will be the league leader is going to go down to the last night, with several players in the race.  Marist has Baird (570) and Walcott (409); remember Walcott missed almost three full games.  Willamette has Brown and (523) Koehler (440 I'm missing a game for Koehler). Springfield's John Davidson has 518.  Churchill's Determan is fourth at 496.  Willamette will be introduced to Marist this week, so it's likely Brown's and Koehler's averages will drop.  The other leading receivers won't see Marist for the rest of the year.

Quarterbacks get all the glory, but I'll shine some light on a non quarterback.  Eagle Point's Aaron Foster is fourth in rushing and 7th in receiving.  Stats won't matter when the Eagles play Ashland in two weeks.

RPI

The MWL 6 still only has one team, Marist, with an RPI over 500.  This is killing Marist's chance of moving into the top two statewide seeds in the round of 16.  Marist's next two games are against teams with RPIs of 399 and 298. Our southern brothers, Ashland and Eagle Point are both above 500.  Something tells me Marist coach Frank Geske could care less about the RPI.  Just tell him who the Spartans play next in the playoffs.  He'll take care of the rest.

Marshfield Wildcat at Churchill Air Lancer.

Humongous game that was a yawner until the Pirates unveiled their wildcat.  This is mano-a-mano.  Stop my passing game.  No, you stop my running game. 

The game is also interesting because it pits a veteran coach, Darrel Mehl of Churchill, against second year coach Ainsworth of the Pirates.  Has Mehl seen the wildcat before and does he have a defensive plan for it?  Can Ainsworth develop a plan to stop the screen pass and keep Godfrey in the pocket? 

This game has a huge impact on the MWL 6.  A Marshfield win over Churchill sets up another game for the MWL title in Coos Bay/North Bend on the last night of regular season.  The same thing happened last year.  If Marshfield had beaten Thurston in 2009 in Coos Bay, the Pirates would have earned the number one seed.  This year it will be Marist for the title if the Pirate Wildcat beats Air Lancer.

A Marshfield win also sets up a possible three way tie for second.  Something Springfield would have a nightmare about.  Springfield ended up in a three way tie for second place in the MWL just two years ago.  The Millers lost the luck of the draw and missed the playoffs.  At least this time, the Millers could clinch a round of 32 game if they beat North Eugene in two weeks.

How teams finish in the MWL is huge come playoff time.  The MWL 2 seed plays the Mid-Willamette 5 seed.  The MWL 3 seed plays the Mid-Willamette 3 seed in the playoffs.  Big difference in a very tough Mid-Willamette league.

More about this Friday's games later in the week.

Thursday-Friday game Previews Marist 2-0 vs Churchil 2-0

I got a little behind this week due to a Saturday/Sunday trip to Vancouver, BC to watch my stepson, Alex Brink,  play back-up quarterback for Winnipeg in the CFl.  He didn't get to throw a pass, and wouldn't you know it, Winnipeg announced that Alex will be starting next Monday - in Winnipeg.


Don't forget that the two local games are tonight.  The two games in Ashland and Eagle  Point are on Friday.  It's a nice time to go to Ashland, watch a Friday game, and stay over and go to a Shakespearean play.

MID WESTERN LEAGUE PREVIEW WEEK 6

Two teams undefeated in league and tied for first place. Both ranked in the Pre-Season Top Ten at the start of the season. Post season positioning riding on the outcome. This game was circled on the schedule by lots of fans as one game not to miss. Churchill at Marist is the featured game of the week for local high school football fans.

CHURCHILL LANCERS (2-2) AT MARIST SPARTANS (5-0):

After a rough start with losses to Eagle Point and Ashland, the Lancers have rebounded with back to back league victories over North Eugene and Springfield. Churchill seems to be finding their rhythm. Perhaps the effect of not having an opening game until what was the second week of the season for most teams was a factor that hurt the Lancers. Regardless, Churchill is having success moving the football both on the ground and in the air. Churchill’s Aaron Ingram rushed for 155 yards and three touchdowns on 27 carries last week in a 33-21 win over Springfield. Quarterback Derek Godfrey was efficient in passing for 292 yards on 18 completions of 23 attempts. Now Churchill will face the Marist defense which has been outstanding so far this year, allowing a total of only 26 points in five games. The matchup between the Churchill offense and Marist defense will be critical.

Marist senior Quarterback/running back Logan Silver has done everything except drive the team bus for the Spartans. Perhaps he will do that this week. He has passed for 1072 yards, run for 514 yards, thrown 13 touchdown passes and run for 7 touchdowns.

The outcome of this game may depend on Churchill’s ability to slow down the Marist offense and move the ball against the Marist defense. Special teams, turnovers and penalties are other factors that could turn the tide either way.

Gary's Prediction:

I'm going to this game as Churchill has steadily improved.  They're starting to minimize their mistakes and their passing game is very efficient with Godfrey completing 60 percent of his passes and  wide receiver Brandon Determan battling for third place in receiving among the MWL 8 receivers.  And that's with one less game.  I'm curious how Marist coach Frank Geske is going to play this one.  Will he focus on Determan?  Will he focus on the running back Ingram?  I'm betting he releases the defensive front and challenges them to harass Godrey into poor passes and at the same time try and stop Ingram in his starting blocks.  Marist has not allowed more than a touchdown against any MWL 8 opponent and they want to continue that string. You already know how I feel about Marist.  Marist 35 Churchill 7.

WILLAMETTE WOVERINES (1-4) AT MARSHFIELD PIRATES (2-3):

Both of these teams are 1-1 in the Midwestern league and have common wins against North Eugene and common losses to Springfield. Willamette comes into this game after getting their first win of the season, a 34-27 win over North Eugene. Quarterback Kamerun Smith threw for 267 yards on 20 of 29 passing with two touchdowns. He has thrown for over a thousand yards so far this season. He will need some help from his defensive teammates who have given up an average of 42 points per game.

Marshfield enters this game following a 35-9 loss to Ashland. The Pirates have yet to lose back to back games this season and have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde. Following a blowout loss to Springfield, the Pirates rebounded with a 41-32 win over the high flying Eagle Point Eagles. Then last week they lose on the road to Ashland. The common variable is they have yet to lose at home. The Marshfield offense has been inconsistent and scored 90 points total in five games, 41 of those in the win versus Eagle Point. Can Marshfield get back on the winning track now that they are at home again?

Gary's Prediction:

First a comment about Willamette's game at North Eugene....

I went to the Willamette at North Eugene game last week thinking I could see two teams playing their guts out for their first win, or I might see a lot of turnovers, penalties and missed tackles.  I was treated to the former and a well played game.  The outcome of the game could have easily gone the other way.  There were many close calls, and they went Willamette's way all but one time.  One of the close calls occurred late, when a Highlander stripped the ball at the one and North recovered for a touchback.  But the official flagged North for a facemask call.  If the North folks want to upset themselves, they can look through the photo gallery and look at that play.  I recommend moving on with life.  Anyway, it was a heck of a game with the lineman going out all night.   My kind of game.  Exciting to the very end.

So the question is "Can Willamette go to the bay and play like they did against North again?"   The answer is 'Yes', unless the Pirates can get to qb Smith.  The every other week Pirates are scheduled for a good week this week.  I'm going to hope football fans see both teams at their best.  If that's the case, Willamette has too much firepower in the air and on the ground.  Even thought Willamette has defensive weaknesses even on a good night, I'm predicting  Willamette 35 Marshfield 28.  But remember the Marshfield-Eagle Point game.  

 SPRINGFIELD MILLERS (2-3) AT EAGLE POINT EAGLES (2-3):

Both teams enter this game following losses. Eagle Point lost at home to Marist last week 55-6. Springfield had their homecoming ruined by Churchill 33-21. Both teams have the ability to score both on the ground and through the air. This could be a fun game to watch and an important game for two teams eager to finish strong.

Gary's prediction:

I was high on Eagle Point's potential when I saw them beat Churchill in Eugene.  And I was wondering if Springfield's football  program had 'arrived' when I saw them beat Marshfield 50-6. 

Miller quarterback Levi Green is having quite the season with 14 td's and 2 ints.  Running  back Thomas Spikes is pounding out 5.7 yards per carry.  I think Springfield is due to put it all together.  On the other side, Eagle Point's offensive potential is scary.  Aaron Foster is a major threat at running back and receiver.  But I really think 5'10', 210 pound running back Garrett Snow is the one who can swing the  game in the Eagle's direction by controlling the clock. QB Shane Bluhm completes 50 percent of his passes and has run for 45 yards per game.  Eagle Point 35 Springfield 31.

NORTH EUGENE HIGHLANDERS (0-4) AT ASHLAND GRIZZLIES (3-2):

North Eugene was competitive last week in a 34-27 loss to Willamette. The Highlanders turned the ball over on downs at the Willamette 17 yard line with four seconds remaining in the game. Ashland has won three games in a row following two losses on the road to start the season. The Ashland offense is improving after two early season games in which the offense sputtered and has averaged 34 points over the last three games.

Gary's Predictions:

Ashland's D is also improving.  The Grizzlies have held opponents to just under 12 points a games over the last three games.    Only Marist has scored more than two touchdowns against Ashland.  Football fans are going to think they are watching a bunch of jackrabbits play football.  Ashland qb Jake Scarmanich bounces around the field with ease as does North Eugene's Alex Wilson and crew.  This'll be a fun one to watch because of all of the explosive skills guys on the field. Ashland 35 North Eugene 14.

Bench Splinters....
I've been very mediocre in my weekly predictions this year.  So it helps me feel better when I go back to my September 9 pre league predictions.  I had Churchill finishing second to Marist in the MWL 6 league, which could still happen.  I also had Churchill second in the MWL 8 league, ahead of Ashland and Eagle Point.  Churchill lost to both of these teams this year.


If Marist and Sheldon go undefeated in regular season, how about a match up game during the play-in week?  The game could be a fundraiser in Autzen for World Peace.


Ashland might want to keep an eye on their freshman linebacker after the game this Friday.  Both teams wear red and the Highlanders could easily mistake a player in red as a North Eugene player and stick the player in the back seat of the bus for the trip back to Eugene.  I don't know if a Grizzlie would want to wear a kilt, but if North could pull off the trick of spiriting away frosh Mason Montgomery, they would have one of the best linebackers in the league for three more years.  The fantastic frosh is petite at 5'11" and 195 pounds.  That's an ouch if you get hit by him.  Montgomery leads Ashland in tackles and assists.  Tell me he plays baseball and crushes the ball.


Stats


I work with MaxPreps and most of the MWL 8 teams to help compile league stats.  Currently, six of the eight teams are inputting at least their offensive stats.  If your team is one of those that is behind in stats, please check to see if you can help the team statistician.  If the team stat person doesn't want to learn how to use the MaxPreps software, I can help by uploading the info.  MaxPrep results are compiled into a statewide and nationwide database.  It's fun to see the local kids names in the league, state and national stats.  The MWL 8 has six of the top 10 quarterbacks in 5A among the schools that are reporting to MaxPreps.  The teams reporting to MaxPreps include the top 11 teams in the latest OregonLive.com poll.   We don't have any runners in the top 10, but Marist's Silver and Park are 11 and 12.  Spikes is 14th and Foster is 16th.The MWL 8 has four receivers in the top 10 and eight of the top fifteen.  Our prolific passers hold six of the top eight positions in total offense, with Logan Silver's legs giving him the number one spot.

Predictions - Key MWL 6 games - Huge Marist vs Eagle Point game

Some huge games tonight featuring teams that haven't established consistency yet.

Churchill (1-0 MWL 6) at Springfield (2-1 MWL 6)

If both of these teams play to their potential, fans are in for some fireworks. 

Springfield's Levi Green has thrown 11 td's in four games and only one interception.  John Davidson is his primary receiver, but look out for wide receiver Kyle George and Thomas Spikes coming out of his rb position.  Spikes has also been worth 77 yards per game on the ground at 5 yards per carry.

Churchill's qb Derek Godfrey's favorite target is Brandon Determan, the league's second leading receiver.   Junior running back Aaron Ingram had 100 yards rushing last week against North Eugene, part of a 555 yard explosion for Churchill.

Standings wise, this game may be more important to Springfield than Churchill.  You can't undo a loss, and Springfield will have only one league game left after tonight to pick up a MWL 6 victory.  A Springfield win would make them 3-1 in the MWL 6 with just one MWL 6 game left at home.  A Miller loss would greatly reduce their chances at claiming the second seed, as Churchill would own the tie breaker over Springfield.  However, if Churchill loses, they can still pick up three more wins, albeit one would have to be against Marist, and most likely position themselves as a 1 or 2 seed.

This is impossible to predict confidently.  Neither team has consistently played tough defense.  And both teams can explode on offense.  Could be a track meet. 

I'm going with home field advantage.  Springfield 35 Churchill 28.

Willamette (0-1 MWL 6) at North Eugene (0-3 MWL 6)

North Eugene is the only MWL 8 team I haven't seen play.  They have to win this one to have a chance of getting out of a play-in game.  Willamette will still have three games left after tonight, so they could recover, win some games and go straight to the round of 32.

I'm going to this game to see North Eugene for the first time.  But I'm going to enjoy watching Willamette soph QB Kamerun Smith.  He leads the league with over 1,000 yards   Hopefully, Dueante Brown is back for this game, as Brown and Cameron Koehler make a powerful receiving duo.  Willamette's running back crew has pounded out over 100 yards per game.  Not bad considering the Wolverines are avering over 260 yards in the air.  Skyler Mohr is the plowhorse at 60 yards per game.  Jordan Visarraga breaks a few more long runs and is averaging almost 7 yards per carry.  And Dante Giles has averaged over 8  yards per carry in his last 8 carries.

Other than the Highlander game against Marist, North Eugene has shown the ability to score.  They have several very good players in the skills positions. 

The game is at North Eugene, but I'm leaning towards Willamette's passing game.  Willamette 35 North Eugen 21.

Big Game of the Evening
Marist (3-0 MWL 8) at Eagle Point (2-1 MWL 8)

Eagle Point has enough versatility in their offense to upset Marist.  But the Eagle Point defense will have to play the game of their lives.

Eagle Point has averaged over 200 yards on the ground, which will be helpful in trying to keep Marist's offense off the field.  All everything offense player senior Aaron Foster leads the Eagles in rushing (and receiving and scoring).  Garrett Snow pounds the ball for Eagle Point.  He's 5' 10" and 210 pounds.  QB Shane Bluhm adds another 50 yards per game on the ground.

Shane Bluhm's favorite receivers have been Foster, Loren Nesberg, Snow and Jake Shaffer.  I think Eagle Point is going to have to spread it around even more against the Spartans.

Everyone knows Marist's offensive standouts by now.  QB Logan Silver, receivers Taylor Walcot, Austin Baird and for the last game at least,  Josh Paiement, a formerly injured QB. Junior Greg Park leads the team in rushing with Silver also gaining huge yardage.

Take a few minutes and watch the O and D line and linebackers.  That's where Marist's magic starts.  Matt Devereux, Logan Mayes, Will Swindling, Paxton Miller and others.  Not only do they make a million tackles, but they set the table for the offensive skills players and DB's.  Because of the pressure by the D line, you're bound to hear the Marist's DB's names called for a pick or even a blitz sack.  DB's Ryan Inouye, Carson Keiswetter, Brady Chiongbian and Matt Beattie have become familiar calls over loudspeakers this year.

Game is at Eagle Point.  I'm thinking Marist stops the run and forces Bluhm to throw on the run.  Marist 35 Eagle Point 14.

Marshfield (2-1 MWL 8) at Ashland (2-1 MWL 8)

I need a lifeline to the audience to predict this game.  Will the Pirates who stunned Eagle Point show up?  Or will the eight turnover Pirates who lost to Springfield show up?  I believe a lot in the concept of 'visualizing'.  And the Pirates can look back on last week and gain confidence through visualization.  Now they know for sure they can pin a team inside the  ten when they punt.  They can return a kickoff, they can pick six, they can respond quickly when the opponent closes the gap.

Assuming the Pirates play another solid game, fans are in for a show.  I'd expect the Pirates to once again try to move the ball on the ground with QB Dallas Milburn, and RB's Ryan Scoville and John Davidson.  With the Grizzlies moving closer to the line to stop the run, Milburn can throw the occasional pass that could catch the Grizzlies off guard.

On the Grizzlie side, they will entertain the Pirate fans with QB's Jake Scarmanich's rabbit drill, dodging and then exploding into open space.  Then the Grizzlies will bring in Jake McCoy, who everyone assume will throw to Scarmanich, but will, in fact, spread the ball around.

Considerations: Ashland has averaged 33 points the last two games after scoring just one td in the  first two games.  And they've held the last two opponents to two touchdowns each.  The Pirates scored 41 last week, but gave up 32.

Marshfield can beat Ashland.  The Pirates know they can put points on the board.  Pirate coach Justin Ainsworth has been around long enough to put together a defensive game plan to stop the Grizzlies.  For the second time this year I'm going against my gut - my gut was right last time.  And I haven't been accused of sandbagging on behalf of the Pirates in a long time, so  I'm going with Ashland 28-21.

You can respond via the 'comment' feature on the blog, or email me at mwlnow@yahoo.com