Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Marshfield, Thurston remain 5A and 6A
The World newspaper reported that Marshfield and Thurston were denied their requests to move down a classification. Redmond will move down to 5A. Roosevelt moves up to 5A. http://theworldlink.com/sports/article_1d30fb8a-de59-548b-a22c-0b2014b917d0.html
Friday, November 25, 2011
Nov 25 Picks
My LSU stepdaughter is making gumbo. It's been a two day process. We're taking a break during the LSU-Arkansas game so I can sneak in my picks.
Marist over Mt. View
This might be the best match up of the playoffs. There are a lot of impressive things about Mt. View, but what really catches my eye is the 26 to 1 td to int ratio and the one lost fumble this year. Marist can't expect to be getting freebies from the Cougars. This should finally be a close one, but speed kills and Marist has the speed.
Sherwood over West Albany
Another great matchup. Sherwood is definitely vulnerable, as Ashland proved. But I think Ashland matched up well with Sherwood. The Griz's quickness really helped with the difficult to read Sherwood O. I don't think West Albany can do any better. It's Sherwood's D that wins the day.
Sheldon over Grant.
I think the loss of RB Ryan Land is going to come into play tonight. I'm going with Sheldon because my kids went there, but the scales are even and might even tip towards Grant.
Ducks over the Beavers.
My Beaver son says that the Beaves are a couple of years away from success. My Duck son says the Beaves are an eternity away. I'm concerned about the Ducks being a couple of years away from a USC type loss of scholarships. But I think the Ducks have the right legal team in place, so they'll skate through. In any event, if it wasn't the Civil War, the Ducks should be favored by 35, but it is the Civil War and anything can happen, but it won't this year. My college alma matre prevails.
Marist over Mt. View
This might be the best match up of the playoffs. There are a lot of impressive things about Mt. View, but what really catches my eye is the 26 to 1 td to int ratio and the one lost fumble this year. Marist can't expect to be getting freebies from the Cougars. This should finally be a close one, but speed kills and Marist has the speed.
Sherwood over West Albany
Another great matchup. Sherwood is definitely vulnerable, as Ashland proved. But I think Ashland matched up well with Sherwood. The Griz's quickness really helped with the difficult to read Sherwood O. I don't think West Albany can do any better. It's Sherwood's D that wins the day.
Sheldon over Grant.
I think the loss of RB Ryan Land is going to come into play tonight. I'm going with Sheldon because my kids went there, but the scales are even and might even tip towards Grant.
Ducks over the Beavers.
My Beaver son says that the Beaves are a couple of years away from success. My Duck son says the Beaves are an eternity away. I'm concerned about the Ducks being a couple of years away from a USC type loss of scholarships. But I think the Ducks have the right legal team in place, so they'll skate through. In any event, if it wasn't the Civil War, the Ducks should be favored by 35, but it is the Civil War and anything can happen, but it won't this year. My college alma matre prevails.
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Quarterfinal thoughts - Ashland and Marist and on to the Grey Cup
For the third straight playoff game, Marist led by over 45 points at the end of the first half which triggered the running clock in the second half. I was pumped as I had just watched Marist's most impressive outing of the year, and the running clock would get me home in time to listen to the last quarter of the Ashland game. Unfortunately, the running clock was stopped several times in the second half for long periods of time and I missed listening to the Grizzlies last chance fourth quarter effort against Sherwood.
Ashland must have been defensive demons. Sherwood had been averaging 345 yards a game on the ground, and yet the Griz held them to 229 yards passing and rushing combined. Sherwood scored twice in the first quarter and looked like they would roll, but Ashland responded with a field goal midway through the second quarter. The two teams slugged it out the rest of the way, with neither team getting anything going on offense. Here's a great article from the Medford Mail Tribune.
Ashland was probably the most fun team to watch in the league, unless you preferred watching the speed scoring machine of Marist. I think what made Ashland so much fun to watch was when they took the field, they didn't look like an imposing team. But they were quicker and stronger than everyone except Marist, which made them pesky. Add in their slyness and shiftiness and they seemed to have a magic that no one else had. Then toss them into the thrillers against Churchill, Eagle Point, Crescent Valley, Silverton and Sherwood and Ashland fans had to have had a memorable season.
Marist over Wilsonville
Earlier I said that Marist's win over Wilsonville was the Spartans most impressive win of the season. You might ask "Why would another running clock game by the Spartans be any more impressive than the other running clock games?" Well, because Wilsonville was a much better team than the first two playoff opponents and were better than most of our MWL teams. Wilsonville's two star runners were fast, fair sized (Shipley is 6' 2"), and had great moves and knew how to break tackles. Clearly, and Wildcat stats prove it, their RB's ran wild in their league as they would have through most of our league. Wilsonville's line was also quite big, or at least quite tall.
That's what made the Spartan win so impressive. Marist's defensive team speed was incredible. Wilsonville tested the edges probably more than they should have, but rarely got around the corner. When they didn't test the edges, they found rough going up the middle. A few times the Wilsonville backs ran off tackle and found big holes, made it seven yards downfield with the opportunity to juke or run through a Spartan. Didn't happen. I was shooting photos on the Wilsonville sideline during the first half and collected dozens of photos of Spartans sticking the Wildcat runners and lifting them off of the ground. Several bystanders were commenting "I can't believe how well these guys tackle." I turned to one young Wildcat fan who seemed to appreciate what was happening and I asked "What do you think about that tackling technique. Sounds like you guys haven't seen tackling like this." He said, "Oh, I'm not surprised. I played for Geske at Tigard."
Another key component to Marist's D is their intimidating gang tackling. If I have dozens of pictures of players lifting the Wildcat ball carriers, I have even more of Marist gang tackling ballcarriers with four guys hauling the carrier down with another one to three Spartans on their way. The crowd was going wild with the sound effects created by all of those pads poppin'.
Marist's offense was the same as it has been since the second half of the Eagle Point game when the Spartan's scored 40 points in a blink of an eye after a seven point first half. The seven point first half brought about my favorite quote of the year. From the Register-Guard, Coach Geske “It was one of those things where we might as well do what’s working and just try to knock off the dumb stuff...” And they've knocked off the dumb stuff ever since. Marist has scored between 40 and 63 points in the first half of each game since.
Kamerun Smith gets more and more impressive with each game. Wilsonville put more pressure on Smith than most MWL teams. They tackled him three times. (Springfield also got Smith three times, the only MWL team to get him more than once) Even with the pressure, he threw some beautiful long balls and his quick release darts to the sideline to Walcott were always on the money. Which leads me to the best highlight of the night. With enough time to get in one play at the end of the first half, Smith hit Walcott in the flat at the Marist 32. Then Walcott made it look like a sci fi movie when the space ship jumps to warp speed and the special effects guy gives you a six second blur to simulate the speed of light. It looked like about five Wildcats had the angle on Walcott, but when they went to tackle him it was just phhtttt-phhhttttt-phhhtttt, nothing there. And at the end of the 68 yard blur was a solid Walcott in the endzone.
Before the game I was thinking Wilsonville was going to have a lot of trouble on O because they were overly reliant on their running game and they had thrown 11 interceptions this year. My thinking was Marist could afford to load up a little more against the run and challenge the Wildcats to throw into Marist's speedy db's. I was a little surprised to see Wilsonville attempt a cross field halfback pass early in the game, but I wasn't surprised when Austin Baird hauled in the floater.
I was thinking the Wildcats could stay within five touchdowns and make the Marist starters play four full quarters, but that would be about as good as they could do without help.. I think the best defensive game plan was to work on a constant downpour from the very beginning of warm ups through the last whistle. Around 9AM as I was looking out my window, I thought that might happen, but it turned out to be a great night, with a couple of early light mists. But mostly it was a night for fireworks put on by the Marist O, with thunder only coming from the Marist D.
CFL and the Grey Cup
My stepson, Alex Brink, tossed a touchdown pass in Winnipeg's 19-3 semifinal win over Hamilton. Alex and the Blue Bombers play for the Grey Cup in Vancouver, BC next weekend. Alex was the backup today. When he is the backup, he is usually put in for quarterback sneaks (to make sure the starting qb doesn't get hurt on the plunge). We were surprised when he was put in on a first and goal from the three. That's too far to sneak. So they had him toss a shortie to a guy who is a regular defensive tackle, but who came in for a trick play.
Winnipeg was 4-14 last year and didn't make the playoffs. It's been a long road from Sheldon to Washington State to Houston to Winnipeg. But he's pretty psyched to be playing for Canada's national championship.
Ashland must have been defensive demons. Sherwood had been averaging 345 yards a game on the ground, and yet the Griz held them to 229 yards passing and rushing combined. Sherwood scored twice in the first quarter and looked like they would roll, but Ashland responded with a field goal midway through the second quarter. The two teams slugged it out the rest of the way, with neither team getting anything going on offense. Here's a great article from the Medford Mail Tribune.
Ashland was probably the most fun team to watch in the league, unless you preferred watching the speed scoring machine of Marist. I think what made Ashland so much fun to watch was when they took the field, they didn't look like an imposing team. But they were quicker and stronger than everyone except Marist, which made them pesky. Add in their slyness and shiftiness and they seemed to have a magic that no one else had. Then toss them into the thrillers against Churchill, Eagle Point, Crescent Valley, Silverton and Sherwood and Ashland fans had to have had a memorable season.
Marist over Wilsonville
Earlier I said that Marist's win over Wilsonville was the Spartans most impressive win of the season. You might ask "Why would another running clock game by the Spartans be any more impressive than the other running clock games?" Well, because Wilsonville was a much better team than the first two playoff opponents and were better than most of our MWL teams. Wilsonville's two star runners were fast, fair sized (Shipley is 6' 2"), and had great moves and knew how to break tackles. Clearly, and Wildcat stats prove it, their RB's ran wild in their league as they would have through most of our league. Wilsonville's line was also quite big, or at least quite tall.
That's what made the Spartan win so impressive. Marist's defensive team speed was incredible. Wilsonville tested the edges probably more than they should have, but rarely got around the corner. When they didn't test the edges, they found rough going up the middle. A few times the Wilsonville backs ran off tackle and found big holes, made it seven yards downfield with the opportunity to juke or run through a Spartan. Didn't happen. I was shooting photos on the Wilsonville sideline during the first half and collected dozens of photos of Spartans sticking the Wildcat runners and lifting them off of the ground. Several bystanders were commenting "I can't believe how well these guys tackle." I turned to one young Wildcat fan who seemed to appreciate what was happening and I asked "What do you think about that tackling technique. Sounds like you guys haven't seen tackling like this." He said, "Oh, I'm not surprised. I played for Geske at Tigard."
Another key component to Marist's D is their intimidating gang tackling. If I have dozens of pictures of players lifting the Wildcat ball carriers, I have even more of Marist gang tackling ballcarriers with four guys hauling the carrier down with another one to three Spartans on their way. The crowd was going wild with the sound effects created by all of those pads poppin'.
Marist's offense was the same as it has been since the second half of the Eagle Point game when the Spartan's scored 40 points in a blink of an eye after a seven point first half. The seven point first half brought about my favorite quote of the year. From the Register-Guard, Coach Geske “It was one of those things where we might as well do what’s working and just try to knock off the dumb stuff...” And they've knocked off the dumb stuff ever since. Marist has scored between 40 and 63 points in the first half of each game since.
Kamerun Smith gets more and more impressive with each game. Wilsonville put more pressure on Smith than most MWL teams. They tackled him three times. (Springfield also got Smith three times, the only MWL team to get him more than once) Even with the pressure, he threw some beautiful long balls and his quick release darts to the sideline to Walcott were always on the money. Which leads me to the best highlight of the night. With enough time to get in one play at the end of the first half, Smith hit Walcott in the flat at the Marist 32. Then Walcott made it look like a sci fi movie when the space ship jumps to warp speed and the special effects guy gives you a six second blur to simulate the speed of light. It looked like about five Wildcats had the angle on Walcott, but when they went to tackle him it was just phhtttt-phhhttttt-phhhtttt, nothing there. And at the end of the 68 yard blur was a solid Walcott in the endzone.
Before the game I was thinking Wilsonville was going to have a lot of trouble on O because they were overly reliant on their running game and they had thrown 11 interceptions this year. My thinking was Marist could afford to load up a little more against the run and challenge the Wildcats to throw into Marist's speedy db's. I was a little surprised to see Wilsonville attempt a cross field halfback pass early in the game, but I wasn't surprised when Austin Baird hauled in the floater.
I was thinking the Wildcats could stay within five touchdowns and make the Marist starters play four full quarters, but that would be about as good as they could do without help.. I think the best defensive game plan was to work on a constant downpour from the very beginning of warm ups through the last whistle. Around 9AM as I was looking out my window, I thought that might happen, but it turned out to be a great night, with a couple of early light mists. But mostly it was a night for fireworks put on by the Marist O, with thunder only coming from the Marist D.
CFL and the Grey Cup
My stepson, Alex Brink, tossed a touchdown pass in Winnipeg's 19-3 semifinal win over Hamilton. Alex and the Blue Bombers play for the Grey Cup in Vancouver, BC next weekend. Alex was the backup today. When he is the backup, he is usually put in for quarterback sneaks (to make sure the starting qb doesn't get hurt on the plunge). We were surprised when he was put in on a first and goal from the three. That's too far to sneak. So they had him toss a shortie to a guy who is a regular defensive tackle, but who came in for a trick play.
Winnipeg was 4-14 last year and didn't make the playoffs. It's been a long road from Sheldon to Washington State to Houston to Winnipeg. But he's pretty psyched to be playing for Canada's national championship.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Nov 18 Picks
Nov 18 Picks
Coach Geske was quoted in the paper as moving the Marist playoff games to North Eugene due to ducks using the puddles on the field since October and goose droppings from migrating geese. Seems like if you could get your players to practice in droppings, it would be an incredible home field advantage. I'd even walk a few geese around on leashes when the opponents took the field to warm up.
Marist over Wilsonville.
The easy ride is over for the Spartans. If Wilsonville can get pressure on Smith and there's the pounding rain that I'm seeing out my window right now, we very well could see an upset. The best ball boys in the world won't be able to keep the balls dry if it pours the entire game. Plus the balls pick up weight as they get coated with water, no matter what the ball manufacturer says.
Can the Marist O line do the job against a quality team? This is an amazing stat .... in seven league games, the Marist O line only allowed Smith to be touched SIX times. Springfield tackled Smith three times.... Ashland, Eagle Point and Churchill sacked Smith one time. That's something to ponder. Every opponent knew that Smith was not going to run, but could only get to him six times in seven league games. Thats an incredible job by the Spartan line.
Sherwood over Ashland.
I have been fortunate to be able to listen to Ashland's wild and wooly 4th quarters (and a double OT) the last two weeks. Marist was nice enough to get the running clock going at the beginning of the second half in each of the last two games. The second halves finished quickly and I was able to drive the two miles home and catch some wild Ashland 4th quarters called by some great announcers.
I'm hoping it's wet up in Sherwood. I think Ashland's offensive quickness and the Grizzlies explosiveness will be an advantage for the Grizzlie O. Sherwood is going to score no matter what, so the Griz will need to really turn it on. Sherwood is very good, but not the monster they have had at times. A good Grizzlie game plan and an evening with few offensive errors could advance Ashland to the semis.
Mt. View over Lebanon
Lebanon's style of play should be a huge advantage in what will probably be horrible conditions - wet and very cold. I would think that the Warriors could focus on the QB-WR combo of the Hollister brothers and gamble that Mt. View doesn't go wild on the ground.
It's a home game for Mt. View. The Cougars are good and they can go to the ground if they need to, so I'm going with Mt. View
West Albany over Bend
Good Luck to Bend in trying to stop RB Jake LaCoste. West Albany also has a really good QB in Brandon Myers. Add in West Albany's physical play and the Bulldogs roll.
Bend relies on a passing game, and their QB has thrown for a lot of yards, but has nine interceptions. MWC teams are able to pour on the pressure, so the Bend QB needs to have his best game of the year.
CFL
My stepson, Alex Brink, will likely see a little action in the Winnipeg Blue Bombers semifinal game Sunday. If they win, they go to the Grey Cup in Vancouver. Alex has gotten a lot of playing time this year, including a few starts, but the QB who started the season before falling to injury is going to give it a go this Sunday.
When Alex doesn't start, he gets to go in on 2nd or 3rd and one. The D line in Canada has to play a yard off of the ball. So it's easy to get that first half yard. But all 12 defenders know the QB is going to carry the ball, and all the defenders jump on the two or three spots they think he is going to run. So most CFL teams put in their number two QB to avoid injury to their starting QB. Or restated, they put in Alex to get clobbered.
Go Ashland!! Go Marist!!
Coach Geske was quoted in the paper as moving the Marist playoff games to North Eugene due to ducks using the puddles on the field since October and goose droppings from migrating geese. Seems like if you could get your players to practice in droppings, it would be an incredible home field advantage. I'd even walk a few geese around on leashes when the opponents took the field to warm up.
Marist over Wilsonville.
The easy ride is over for the Spartans. If Wilsonville can get pressure on Smith and there's the pounding rain that I'm seeing out my window right now, we very well could see an upset. The best ball boys in the world won't be able to keep the balls dry if it pours the entire game. Plus the balls pick up weight as they get coated with water, no matter what the ball manufacturer says.
Can the Marist O line do the job against a quality team? This is an amazing stat .... in seven league games, the Marist O line only allowed Smith to be touched SIX times. Springfield tackled Smith three times.... Ashland, Eagle Point and Churchill sacked Smith one time. That's something to ponder. Every opponent knew that Smith was not going to run, but could only get to him six times in seven league games. Thats an incredible job by the Spartan line.
Sherwood over Ashland.
I have been fortunate to be able to listen to Ashland's wild and wooly 4th quarters (and a double OT) the last two weeks. Marist was nice enough to get the running clock going at the beginning of the second half in each of the last two games. The second halves finished quickly and I was able to drive the two miles home and catch some wild Ashland 4th quarters called by some great announcers.
I'm hoping it's wet up in Sherwood. I think Ashland's offensive quickness and the Grizzlies explosiveness will be an advantage for the Grizzlie O. Sherwood is going to score no matter what, so the Griz will need to really turn it on. Sherwood is very good, but not the monster they have had at times. A good Grizzlie game plan and an evening with few offensive errors could advance Ashland to the semis.
Mt. View over Lebanon
Lebanon's style of play should be a huge advantage in what will probably be horrible conditions - wet and very cold. I would think that the Warriors could focus on the QB-WR combo of the Hollister brothers and gamble that Mt. View doesn't go wild on the ground.
It's a home game for Mt. View. The Cougars are good and they can go to the ground if they need to, so I'm going with Mt. View
West Albany over Bend
Good Luck to Bend in trying to stop RB Jake LaCoste. West Albany also has a really good QB in Brandon Myers. Add in West Albany's physical play and the Bulldogs roll.
Bend relies on a passing game, and their QB has thrown for a lot of yards, but has nine interceptions. MWC teams are able to pour on the pressure, so the Bend QB needs to have his best game of the year.
CFL
My stepson, Alex Brink, will likely see a little action in the Winnipeg Blue Bombers semifinal game Sunday. If they win, they go to the Grey Cup in Vancouver. Alex has gotten a lot of playing time this year, including a few starts, but the QB who started the season before falling to injury is going to give it a go this Sunday.
When Alex doesn't start, he gets to go in on 2nd or 3rd and one. The D line in Canada has to play a yard off of the ball. So it's easy to get that first half yard. But all 12 defenders know the QB is going to carry the ball, and all the defenders jump on the two or three spots they think he is going to run. So most CFL teams put in their number two QB to avoid injury to their starting QB. Or restated, they put in Alex to get clobbered.
Go Ashland!! Go Marist!!
Friday, November 11, 2011
Nov 11 picks
Almost forgot to get my picks in... My wife is home today, and I'm doing even more chores than on my regular Friday Chore Day.
Marist over Sandy.
Do we really need elite programs playing two games against opponents whose only goal is to avoid the 'running clock' during playoffs. I think the OSAA should go to a 24 team playoff format. That means that 13 teams, about one third of the teams, wouldn't have a game after regular season to 'play-in to the playoffs. The bottom third of the teams move on to winter sports or studying.
Give the top 8 RPI teams a bye while the next 16 play each other. That would put #9 against # 24, 10 vs 23, 11 vs 22 ... and finally 16 vs 17.
Personally, I want to see great teams like Marist play as often as possible. But I want at least a modicum of opposition.
Ashland over Silverton.
After last weeks double OT win over a Midwestern Conference foe, Ashland hosts another MWC team. Silverton finished 5-2 in league versus Crescent Valley's 3-4 (CV was Ashland's opponent last week). It'll be a lot tougher, but the Grizzlies have enough offense to handle Silverton. Silverton's strength is, well, their strength. The Silver Foxes are bound to be more physical than Ashland. But Ashland, while not a huge team by any means, is tough pound for pound.
Corvallis over Wilsonville 9 (Winner plays Marist)
This will be a close one. I'm going with Corvallis, just because I want to see a rematch of the Corvallis-Marist season opener. I know Marist's offense has come a long ways. Has Corvallis's offense also improved?
Bend over Liberty
Could be one of the better games of the night. I'm not one for putting too much on home field advantage, but I think teams from the really cold part of the state do have a big advantage during November. Plus, Bend's a good team.
Sherwood over Hermiston (Winner hosts Ashland if Ashland wins)
Sherwood might get a little push from Hermiston. Meaning Hermiston might stay with n 45 of Sherwood.
Beings that there's no school today, you can still vote in the polls. (Note that the Sherwood game is not one of the four game polls)
http://www.mwathletics.com/football/2010/football_weekly_game_polls.htm
Marist over Sandy.
Do we really need elite programs playing two games against opponents whose only goal is to avoid the 'running clock' during playoffs. I think the OSAA should go to a 24 team playoff format. That means that 13 teams, about one third of the teams, wouldn't have a game after regular season to 'play-in to the playoffs. The bottom third of the teams move on to winter sports or studying.
Give the top 8 RPI teams a bye while the next 16 play each other. That would put #9 against # 24, 10 vs 23, 11 vs 22 ... and finally 16 vs 17.
Personally, I want to see great teams like Marist play as often as possible. But I want at least a modicum of opposition.
Ashland over Silverton.
After last weeks double OT win over a Midwestern Conference foe, Ashland hosts another MWC team. Silverton finished 5-2 in league versus Crescent Valley's 3-4 (CV was Ashland's opponent last week). It'll be a lot tougher, but the Grizzlies have enough offense to handle Silverton. Silverton's strength is, well, their strength. The Silver Foxes are bound to be more physical than Ashland. But Ashland, while not a huge team by any means, is tough pound for pound.
Corvallis over Wilsonville 9 (Winner plays Marist)
This will be a close one. I'm going with Corvallis, just because I want to see a rematch of the Corvallis-Marist season opener. I know Marist's offense has come a long ways. Has Corvallis's offense also improved?
Bend over Liberty
Could be one of the better games of the night. I'm not one for putting too much on home field advantage, but I think teams from the really cold part of the state do have a big advantage during November. Plus, Bend's a good team.
Sherwood over Hermiston (Winner hosts Ashland if Ashland wins)
Sherwood might get a little push from Hermiston. Meaning Hermiston might stay with n 45 of Sherwood.
Beings that there's no school today, you can still vote in the polls. (Note that the Sherwood game is not one of the four game polls)
http://www.mwathletics.com/football/2010/football_weekly_game_polls.htm
Friday, November 4, 2011
My Play In Picks - Giving you a chance
Before my play in picks, what about those MWL kickers making all league in soccer?
Churchill's Josh Han and Marist's Garrett Holaday made 1st team soccer. Springfield's Ashton Summer made honorable mention. Han and Holaday graduate. Summer? - He'll be BAACK.
My Play-in picks
I'm ahead of MWL fans 20 to 19 correct picks so far. I'm going to give you a chance to catch me this weekend. I'm a softie for the MWL when we go out of league, so I'll go for an upset by a MWL team, which you unfaithful fans wouldn't go for.
Marist over Summit (at North Eugene)
This game will show us how well the Spartans can focus. Marist should easily handle Summit, but will they lollygag because they think Summit will roll over? My thinking is if Summit's low ranking can throw off Spartan focus, other issues might also throw off their focus. Like Sherwood's prowess if Marist is fortunate enough to try to gain revenge on December 3.
Ashland over Crescent Valley at Ashland
I'm a little worried about this one. The MWC is a very physical league and typically keeps their penalties and mental mistakes to a minimum. But I think Ashland is man enough and the Grizzlies O is tough to defend.
Everyone else is on the road
Silverton over Eagle Point
Eagle Point has a great shot at an upset in what just has to be one of the most physical match ups of the night. If the Eagles can control the clock, which they are capable of, and score td's in the red zone, they should be in good shape. If the Eagles let the Silver Foxes score early and often, then it'll be hard for the Eagles to catch off. But scoring often isn't Silverton's MO, so Eagle Point has a great shot at the upset, but I'm picking Silverton because my upset pick is....
Churchill over Corvallis
The Lancer's have the 'O' to beat Corvallis. I have two concerns. My biggest concern is whether Churchill's linemen can match Corvallis's physical intensity. Recent games haven't helped the Lancers get tuned up for a physical match. Churchill won their last two games by a margin of 61 to 18. On the other hand, Corvallis's last three games were against three teams in the top 7 of the RPI rankings. My other concern is if Churchill's D can shut down Corvallis in the first half. The Lancers have been stellar defenders in the second half, but they've let opponents get the jump in the first half. Even with those concerns, I think Churchill can put enough points on the board to overcome an early Corvallis lead. But the Lancer's will be black and blue when the final whistle blows.
Lebanon over Willamette
Willamette will have a big hurdle to overcome if Crownover can't play. But even without him, if the Wolverines can decide not to make delay of game penalties and jump offside on O, especially in the red zone - they will be in the game at the end, when anything can happen. My 400 photos of the Churchill-Willamette game showed the same five guys at the ball on offense and defense on the majority of plays. If the Wolverines can make it 8 to 11 guys to the ball, it's a Willamette win.
West Albany over Springfield
Like the Wolverines, if the Millers play to the level they are capable, they can win. And like the Wolverines, they tend to hurt themselves with penalties and mental mistakes. Hopefully, Springfield has worked on execution the last two weeks because the Millers certainly have the offense to win.
Mt. View over Marshfield
It's supposed to be 37 degrees at kickoff, but no snow. Unless the Pirates fiddled with the Hollister brothers food and the brothers come down with the flu (a common practice in the Tour de France), an upset is a long shot. Mt. View's stats are a lot like Marist's, 1800 yards passing, 1300 rushing, with the QB not running much. If the Pirates can figure out how to get to the qb, there is hope.
Brink to start Canadian Football League Game Saturday
If you want to see up to six players in motion (four allowed to go forward as receivers), 110 yard fields, and two and outs which means lots of passing; watch the Winnipeg at Calgary game tomorrow at 1 PM. Former Sheldon QB, and my stepson, Alex Brink should be starting tomorrow in the last regular season game. A Winnipeg win guarantees the Blue Bombers of a bye in the march to the Grey Cup. Alex has played quite a bit this year and engineered a game winning drive as well as rallied the team from a couple of huge deficits, only to lose by a hair. Saturday, he should get the entire game to himself. I hope he likes snow, there's about a half a foot on the field right now. You have to have access to ESPNWatch. You can catch in on the internet. Winnipeg game
Congratulations to the soccer players for making all league in soccer.
Go MWL.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
How I voted in final 5A poll
Before I go over my final vote, how close was it for Marshfield?
Marshfield had to sit back and wait for Dallas to play Woodburn. Dallas was 1-5 in league versus Woodburn's 2-4. So it was a winnable home game for Dallas. Everything RPI fell Dallas's way as far as their opponents winning percentage and their opponents opponents percentage winning. All Dallas had to do is win and their RPI would have been about 446, ahead of Marshfield's 439. Final score - Woodburn 36 Dallas 16. That was close.
My final 5A poll
My rank - OregonLive Rank - RPI
1 - 1 - 1. Sherwood
2 - 2 - 2. Marist
3 - 3 - 3. Mt. View
4 - 8 - 5. Bend
5 - 5 - 10. Wilsonville
6 - 4 - 4. West Albany
7 - 6 - 9. Silverton
8 - 7 - 7. Corvallis
9 - 9 - 6. Lebanon
10 - 10 - 8. Ashland
OregonLive 5A Poll 6A Poll
The big question is: Are Sherwood and Marist as dominant as they were last year? Last year, Marist's closest playoff game before losing in OT to Sherwood was a 35 point win over Lebanon. Sherwood had a close 20 point win over Mt. View during the playoffs. Well, it was close at halftime with Sherwood up 14-10. Sherwood scored the next four touchdowns for a 42-10 lead.
This year, Marist had a close 2 point win over Corvallis in the opening week, and was up just 7-6 at halftime to Eagle Point before exploding for 40 second half points. Sherwood had a close 5 point win over Wilsonville this year. That shows me Sherwood is vulnerable, but Sherwood also blew out Mt. View 41-18. [thanks for the correction on the EP score]
The only thing we know right now is that Marist and Sherwood will be on opposite sides of the bracket. Let's hope that Ashland makes the playoffs and that Ashland and Marist aren't on the same side of the bracket. Don't want MWL teams knocking each other out of a title run.
Possible MWL upsets
Five of our teams travel this weekend, so they are underdogs. I think a couple of our teams have a very good shot at an upset. If Eagle Point can ram the ball down Silverton's throat and control the clock, the Eagles have a good shot. However, Silverton will be well conditioned to take Eagle Point's pounding running game as the Silver Foxes have been playing in the most physical league in the state - the MWC. This game should be played in a cage like pro wrestling.
Churchill is my other best shot at an upset. I've seen Corvallis, albeit in week one. And I've seen Churchill twice. These two teams can both run and pass. In a way they are mirror images on offense. The question is "Are the Lancers as physically tough as a top MWC team?"
Willamette and Springfield have shots at upsets. It looks like the Wolverines will be without wide out Mitch Crownover. That hurts Willamette on D and makes the Wolverines one dimensional on offense. But that one dimension is Visarraga, and that's a good dimension. Another Wolverine issue is execution. They have to eliminate the penalties. Another thought I have about Willamette is that they have four or five guys who are always near the ball, if they can fire up up the other guys to go to the whistle, they can play smash ball with Lebanon.
Springfield's nemesis can be themselves. Like the Wolverines, too many unnecessary penalties in key situations. But eliminate them and get a hot hand in the passing game and they should be a match for West Albany.
Ashland better be more than leery of Crescent Valley. CV has an incredible running back and is yet another one of those hard nosed MWC teams. Let's hope the Grizzlie O is in gear, as I think the CV offense will be primed and put points on the board.
Marshfield goes in as the last seed in the 'Southern Region.' I'm not even going to look at the weather report. But I'd take some snowshoes and special football shoes if I were the Pirates.
Marshfield had to sit back and wait for Dallas to play Woodburn. Dallas was 1-5 in league versus Woodburn's 2-4. So it was a winnable home game for Dallas. Everything RPI fell Dallas's way as far as their opponents winning percentage and their opponents opponents percentage winning. All Dallas had to do is win and their RPI would have been about 446, ahead of Marshfield's 439. Final score - Woodburn 36 Dallas 16. That was close.
My final 5A poll
My rank - OregonLive Rank - RPI
1 - 1 - 1. Sherwood
2 - 2 - 2. Marist
3 - 3 - 3. Mt. View
4 - 8 - 5. Bend
5 - 5 - 10. Wilsonville
6 - 4 - 4. West Albany
7 - 6 - 9. Silverton
8 - 7 - 7. Corvallis
9 - 9 - 6. Lebanon
10 - 10 - 8. Ashland
OregonLive 5A Poll 6A Poll
The big question is: Are Sherwood and Marist as dominant as they were last year? Last year, Marist's closest playoff game before losing in OT to Sherwood was a 35 point win over Lebanon. Sherwood had a close 20 point win over Mt. View during the playoffs. Well, it was close at halftime with Sherwood up 14-10. Sherwood scored the next four touchdowns for a 42-10 lead.
This year, Marist had a close 2 point win over Corvallis in the opening week, and was up just 7-6 at halftime to Eagle Point before exploding for 40 second half points. Sherwood had a close 5 point win over Wilsonville this year. That shows me Sherwood is vulnerable, but Sherwood also blew out Mt. View 41-18. [thanks for the correction on the EP score]
The only thing we know right now is that Marist and Sherwood will be on opposite sides of the bracket. Let's hope that Ashland makes the playoffs and that Ashland and Marist aren't on the same side of the bracket. Don't want MWL teams knocking each other out of a title run.
Possible MWL upsets
Five of our teams travel this weekend, so they are underdogs. I think a couple of our teams have a very good shot at an upset. If Eagle Point can ram the ball down Silverton's throat and control the clock, the Eagles have a good shot. However, Silverton will be well conditioned to take Eagle Point's pounding running game as the Silver Foxes have been playing in the most physical league in the state - the MWC. This game should be played in a cage like pro wrestling.
Churchill is my other best shot at an upset. I've seen Corvallis, albeit in week one. And I've seen Churchill twice. These two teams can both run and pass. In a way they are mirror images on offense. The question is "Are the Lancers as physically tough as a top MWC team?"
Willamette and Springfield have shots at upsets. It looks like the Wolverines will be without wide out Mitch Crownover. That hurts Willamette on D and makes the Wolverines one dimensional on offense. But that one dimension is Visarraga, and that's a good dimension. Another Wolverine issue is execution. They have to eliminate the penalties. Another thought I have about Willamette is that they have four or five guys who are always near the ball, if they can fire up up the other guys to go to the whistle, they can play smash ball with Lebanon.
Springfield's nemesis can be themselves. Like the Wolverines, too many unnecessary penalties in key situations. But eliminate them and get a hot hand in the passing game and they should be a match for West Albany.
Ashland better be more than leery of Crescent Valley. CV has an incredible running back and is yet another one of those hard nosed MWC teams. Let's hope the Grizzlie O is in gear, as I think the CV offense will be primed and put points on the board.
Marshfield goes in as the last seed in the 'Southern Region.' I'm not even going to look at the weather report. But I'd take some snowshoes and special football shoes if I were the Pirates.
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